저자: LarryFink · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크는 2022년 싱가포르 지속가능투자 컨퍼런스 개회사에서 인플레이션과 에너지 전환의 장기 구조를 강조했을 뿐, 대상 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 하지 않았다. 인플레이션과 지정학 팬데믹, 탈세계화, 우크라이나 전쟁, 기후변화, 인플레이션이 장기 시장 구조를 바꾸고 있다고 진단했다. 미국 인플레이션은 40년 만의 고점이며 연준의 최근 금리 인상이 이번 세기 들어 가장 컸고 추가 인상이 예상된다고 했다. 에너지 전환 러시아 에너지 의존 축소로 공급과 가격에 즉각적 영향이 나타나고 있으며 유가가 100달러대에서 120달러 근처까지 올랐다고 설명했다. 에너지 전환은 매끄럽지 않고 속도도 지역마다 다를 것이라고 말했다. EU의 러시아산 원유 수입 금지 합의와 독일의 2035년 재생에너지 100% 목표를 언급했다. 아시아와 투자 기회 아시아는 전 세계 온실가스 배출의 약 절반을 차지하며 기후 피해도 크다고 했다. 동남아는 태양광·수력이 핵심이고 싱가포르는 수소 등 탈탄소 기술이 대안이라고 했다. 출연자 전망 블랙록은 탈탄소 기술 투자 파트너십(테마식과 공동)을 추진 중이며, 탈탄소가 경제성장 엔진이 될 수 있다고 주장했다. 에너지 공급만 제한하고 석유 수요를 무시하면 저소득층 에너지 가격이 오른다고 경고했다. 가격 예측 없음 개별 종목이나 자산에 대한 단기 방향 발언은 없었다.
다듬은 글
good morning and welcome everyone it's the second year that tamasic ifc and blackrock have come together to organize this conference reflecting our collective approach to asia's transition to green energy before i begin i'd like to thank our co-organizers tomasik and ifc for inviting me to open today's conference the world has completely changed since we gathered last year there have been major shifts in geopolitics some companies have started to open up following the pandemic but others are still experiencing significant restrictions and all of this is affecting the global economic outlook and yet amidst what feels like seismic shifts some things do remain constant specifically the importance of energy transition and asia's critical role in the global path to net zero finance has an important part to play in the transition to a net zero world and i encourage everyone in the room and those joining us virtually to consider how you can prepare your investment portfolio and your organization for the transition from blackrock's perspective we are a fiduciary to all our clients so the money we manage is not ours it is our responsibility to understand how changes around the world will impact our clients investment outcomes this means we must stay ahead not only of rapidly changing events but also of the longer term structural changes that will affect markets and our clients portfolios this includes the pandemic deglobalization the war in ukraine climate change and of course inflation this also means we need to take a long-term view thinking not in terms of quarters or even years but in terms of decades and as we approach 2030 or even 2050 decades can start to feel uncomfortably short so i come to this conversation not as an environmentalist but as a true capitalist we have a duty to our clients to manage climate risks effectively seize new investment opportunities and help them achieve better long-term financial outcomes when we look at the context in which the energy transition is unfolding inflation is a major concern for many investors even prior to the russian invasion of ukraine the effects of the pandemic including government stimulus the shift in consumer demand from services to household goods labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks all contributed to inflationary pressures that we have not seen in decades in the united states inflation is at a 40-year high and the fed's last rate hike was the highest since the beginning of the century and we expect another increase soon as more and more countries prioritize national security and seek to reduce their dependence on russian energy we are seeing an immediate effect in both supply and pricing this is what happens when you try to transition away from one kind of energy without figuring out how to replace it with another kind consumers are now dealing with higher energy costs as a result the price of oil cost a hundred dollars now nearing 120 dollars a barrel earlier this year for the first time since 2014 all at a time when people are dealing with higher costs for food and basic goods and while the dependence on russian energy is in the spotlight companies and governments are also looking more broadly at their dependencies we are seeing companies start to recalibrate their global supply chains placing greater emphasis on proximity and reliance than costs which also adds to inflationary pressures developments like these throw the scale the complexity the uncertainty of the transition itself into sharp relief let's be clear the energy transition was never going to be smooth or linear i've always said that it will have ups and downs and move at different speeds in different places we will go from shades of brown to shades of green in fact i believe both inflation and the search for energy security can ultimately serve to accelerate the shift to define new more affordable and cleaner sources of energy the european union has agreed to ban most russian oil imports which is incredible giving russians oil makes up at least 27 of the eu's oil imports in 2021 and european policy makers are already pursuing investments in renewables at an important component of energy security germany plans to accelerate its use of renewable energy and reach a hundred percent clean energy by 2035.
that's 15 years ahead of its previous pre-war targets and more than ever countries that don't have their own energy sources seem determined to fund and develop them which means we'll be investing in wind and solar power and emerging technologies and also will be working on carbon capture and sequestering of carbon while asia might be geographically distant from the events in europe the urgency to act is still very real there are three key points we need to keep in mind in relation to asia's energy transition asia produces around half of the global greenhouse emissions today and this is expected to increase since many nations are yet to hit peak emissions and their economies continue to grow asia will be one of the most impacted regions when we talk about climate change and the impact and its physical impact on the world extreme weather and climate change's impacts across asia in 2020 caused the deaths of thousands of people displaced millions more and cost hundreds of billions of dollars while placing a heavy toll on infrastructure and the ecosystems conventional fuels are currently the primary source of energy in many asian countries and tend to be a key source of national income for several economies the third point highlights the challenges of talking about climate change in a way that moves way beyond the figures and way beyond percentages this discussion is ultimately about people their lives their livelihoods and most importantly their security taking into account these three points the job in asia is harder and more pressing which requires us to move faster to build green economies so this brings us to a key question how do we embark on and finance an orderly transition that is equitable and just at the same time acting with urgency and and need this challenge is daunting but i remain today an optimist i believe in the power of capitalism and how it can act as a powerful catalyst for change it was a partnership between governments and private sector that led to the development of a covet-19 vaccination in record time when we harness the power of both the public and private sector we can achieve truly incredible things in truly record time we must foster similar partnerships to get to net zero and to do this effectively governments and companies need to attract the necessary capital to facilitate the transition in emerging asia to move these targets to implementation we need more cross-border public and private finance to fund the net zero transition in asia and singapore is a key hub to facilitate these flows as a conduit for financial flows into asia the lending and investment decisions taken by financial institutions based in this city state will have a significant impact on the region's contribution to one and a half degree world and its climate resilience it is critical to understand the transition investment opportunities in each country in order to allocate resources accordingly and effectively lay the foundation and groundwork to attract more private capital for example in most of southeast asia solar and hydro projects are the key tenet of the region's low-carbon future give it as plentiful resources but in singapore because of its smaller size geographically it will be harder to make solar and hydropower a large mix of its renewable mix instead new decarbonization technology like hydrogen are potential options the pace of change will be of course be very different in the developing and the developed countries but all markets will require unprecedented investment in decarbonization technology that is why blackrock partnered with thomasic to create decarbonization partners to identify to invest to making sure that we look at companies and emerging technologies that we can reduce carbon emissions we need transformative discoveries and we need to foster investments in them so that they are scalable and affordable part of the dynasism the opportunity and the promise of asia comes from the incredible growth that we are seeing and i believe decarbonization can be a key engine of economic growth as we pursue these ambitious goals which will take time governments and companies must ensure that people continue to have access to reliable and affordable energy sources the transition must be fair for families who spend a greater proportion of their income and energy it must be fair to communities and workers where livelihood could be threatened by this by the stranding of certain assets any plan that focuses solely on limiting supply and fails to address demand for hydrocarbons will drive up energy prices for those who can least afford it the result could be greater political polarization around climate change thereby eroding our global progress i remain optimistic for the future and continue to believe that our collective actions today can make a meaningful impact in the years to come we look to our partners in singapore who have demonstrated a track record in building long-term thinking and building innovative and collaborative approaches at a time when many countries around the world are starting to turn inward pulling back reassuring singapore continues to show a clear commitment to keeping itself open and taking a leadership role in fostering the conversations actions and solutions we need to ensure a just transition i want to thank thomasic and all our partners in singapore for holding the ecospirity and the ssifc once again and i look forward to the productive discussions that we could have today on how we can collectively catalyze and finance the solutions we need to get to our goal of net zero by 2050. thank you
Comments 0