저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
현금은 안전해 보이지만 수익 0이라 장기적으로 위험하다는 주장. 현금은 사실상 30일 미국 T-bill을 의미하며 무위험이지만 최저 수익률(현재 약 3%대). 금과 비트코인은 현금흐름이 없어 적정 가격을 산정할 수 없고, 가치는 사람들의 믿음에 의존한다고 비판. 2007년 유가 147달러 사례로 정성적 근거가 적정가를 보장하지 않음을 설명. 인플레이션 시 현금의 구매력 상실을 경고.
다듬은 글
There are two kinds of assets in the world. There are assets that produce cash flow and assets that don't. The assets that produce cash flow are things like stocks, bonds, companies, and buildings. If you buy one of those, it gives you cash, hopefully every year or month. For students that are looking at risk in the market, cash often feels safe.
Is that again, I'm sorry. For students looking at the market, cash often feels safe. Is that something that you are a fan of or Well, cash is cash is safe, arguably. The only thing that the risk that cash exposes to is the risk of not making money. If you If you look at the chart that Jeff put up on the board, cash is zero risk.
Guess what? If If If you get If you take zero risk, you get the lowest possible return. So, by the way, nobody holds cash. Nobody walks around with money in their pocket. When we say In our business, when we say cash, we mean T-bills. So, you buy 30-day U.S. T-bills, which are You have no credit risk, I believe.
You have no interest rate risk cuz interest rates can't go up and and the value go down because the period to maturity is so short. Uh uh You have no purchasing power risk because there can't be much inflation over the next 30 days. And so, it's absolutely riskless and it has the lowest possible rate.
It And we call it the risk-free rate. And it's Today, it's three-ish, right? So, that's the trouble with cash. Uh And by the way, if you take a job as an investor and you put the money in cash, I promise you'll get fired. Uh you know, so I I'm not a big advocate of cash. What are your thoughts on gold {slash} Bitcoin crypto?
Okay. Yeah, that's a great question. Uh gold {slash} Bitcoin. So, I wrote a memo, hey, uh back in back in 2010 and the title was all that glitters. And I tried to put in everything I knew about gold. And and I said there are two kinds of assets in the world. There are assets that produce cash flow and assets that don't.
The assets that produce cash flow are things like stocks, bonds, companies and buildings. If you buy one of those, it gives you cash. Hopefully every year or month. And you can value it. So I have a building. It it throws off a million dollars a year in profit. I want to sell it to Jeff. Jeff is open to buying a building and he says, "I'll give you $8 million for it because at $8 million I get a 12% return." 1 over 8 is 12%.
I say, "Jeff, that's not high enough. You have to give me 12 million because it's such a high quality asset that an 8% return, 1 over 12, is sufficient. And in fact, because it's so well located, the income will probably go up and you'll get a return more than eight." We can value an asset that produces cash flow by having this kind of discussion.
But if you have an asset that doesn't produce cash flow, you can't have a discussion. What are some examples? Diamonds, paintings, furs, oil, gold, Bitcoin. They they they don't produce any cash. So you can't say what the right price for a barrel of oil is or a bar of gold. And I remember that in July of '07, oil was selling at $147 a barrel.
And if you said to me it said to people at some broker's firm, "Well, why is oil at $147?" They would say, "Well, uh it's a finite supply. We're using it up. And much of the supply is in the hands of countries that are adverse to the United States. So it's very viable. Six months later oil was selling at I think 35 or maybe 47 something like that.
If you said well but all the and all those things were still true. So you take the fact that this fine supply is finite and the fact that we may not make any more and the fact that we're using it up and the fact that it's in hostile hands. But how do you turn those qualitative elements into a fair price?
And the answer is there is no way and that is true of gold and that is true of Bitcoin. So if I say to you Jeff because Jeff's a fan of gold why do you like gold? He would say it's a store of value and in tough times inflation or panic gold holds its value. Why does it hold its value? The price of market well it always has.
Why has it? There's no linkage. There's no mechanism. There's nothing that makes gold a store of value other than the fact that people treat it as a store of value and that leads us to Bitcoin. The value Bitcoin has no value other than the the value that people accord it. Many investors believe holding cash is the safest option but legendary investor Howard Marks says thinking cash has zero risk is a mistake.
Cash may not fluctuate like stocks but it carries the hidden risk of losing purchasing power. When inflation rises money sitting idle slowly loses value even if the number in your bank account stays the same what it can buy keeps shrinking. That's why Marks says cash has to be invested somewhere at least in the treasury bills.
The goal is not just safety but making sure your money continues to work and grow over time.
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