저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 캐시 우드는 3D프린팅·로보틱스·AI 등 파괴적 혁신 기업에 5년 이상 장기 투자할 것을 주장하며, 단기 변동성은 무시하라고 강조한다. [3D프린팅] 산업용 3D프린팅은 자동차·항공우주·의료(보청기 약 95%, 인공관절 등)에서 활용이 확대되고 있으며, FAA 승인 확대로 항공 부품 비용을 최대 90%까지 절감할 수 있다고 주장한다. 관련 종목으로 Stratasys, Proto Labs, Materialise를 언급했으며, 이들 기업은 소비자 중심 집중 때문에 고점 대비 80~90% 하락한 상태라고 설명한다. [로보틱스] Teradyne을 최우선 추천 종목으로 제시했다. 덴마크 기업 Universal Robots 인수로 로보틱스 노출이 있으며, 협동로봇(Cobot) 가격이 수년 내 약 1만~1만1천 달러 수준으로 떨어져 단순 노동 인력 부족 문제를 해결할 것으로 전망했다. [시장 전망] 혁신 기업 시장가치는 현재 약 10~15조 달러에서 10년 내 약 200조 달러로 확대될 것이며, 전체 글로벌 주식시장 시가총액의 10%대 초반에서 절반 이상으로 늘어날 수 있다고 주장했다. DNA 시퀀싱, 로보틱스, 에너지 저장, AI, 블록체인이 S커브를 이어가며 수렴하고 있다고 보았다. [리스크·운용] 벤치마크 편입 종목은 가치 함정이 될 위험이 있다고 지적했다. 리스크오프 국면에서 펀드매니저들이 벤치마크 편입 종목으로 자금을 옮기며 ARK 종목을 매도하는 경향이 있어, 이를 저가 매수 기회로 봤다. 직원 전용으로 숏 포트폴리오(ARK on steroids)를 테스트 중이라고 밝혔다. [출연자 전망] 5~10년은 매우 긍정적이며 변동성이 있더라도 5년 시간 지평을 유지해야 한다고 강조했다. [특정 자산 가격 예측] 영상에서 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인, 테슬라 등 목록) 중 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
Robotics generally actually autonomous vehicles are robots, But in terms of Robotics in the way you and I have understood that Category historically Teradyne is our number one pick and most people don't know Teradyne as having anything to do with robotics, but they bought a company called Universal robots.
It was a Danish company and that has It's a small part of the revenue base right now, but costs of Industrial robots are dropping, especially collaborative robots or Cobots to such a level. We think that costs of one of these robots within a few years Will be $10,000 - $ 11,000 and so very price competitive for Menial jobs where there's probably a shortage of Labor.
Let's hope there is a shortage of Labor in the next couple of years. As a as this economy rebounds 3D printing, is a big part of that. So you'll have stratasys in there Proto Labs, which is a quick turn Manufacturing company, which also is in the 3D printing space as well As materialized which is software in the 3D printing space 3D printing Has been held back by Autos in particular and now Aerospace.
But we think crisis creates opportunity and that that it is going To accelerate the demand for 3D printing. Where are are On 3D printing? Because 10 years ago It was such a huge thing. I did so many stories on it and we had a major problem ten years ago. There was nothing to invest in, you know, you mention about Teradyne And the robotics firm small part of their revenues.
There was almost no pure playful their stratasys, but there weren't Many back then. And yet the news on is kind of died down. I have friends that are in the, in the old car business. They like by muscle cars in the 60s, and the 70s, and apparently it's A revolution. You can now, buy commit 1969. Aero parts that are essentially made in 3D printed, you can buy carburetors or things like that.
This is what I am told and so it's transformed that business, it Seemed but how is it changing Industries? It really going to break through now. Yes it is. And you ask where it is. It's in the valley of Despair. Many stocks are down 80 to 90% from their hives because their focus was on the consumer space and not on the industrial.
Space Aerospace. If aerospace companies like Boeing and Airbus their gross. Margins are in the 15% to 20% range 3D printing. Now that the FAA is approving. It 3D printing can cut those costs by up to 90% as well as lower the weight and form factors of of the various parts in engines and shrink the number of parts.
So, Aerospace, we think given the turmoil and trouble, it's Now it is going to seek out even more aggressively, some of these new technologies that are going to help it get back to profitability. And and is this feasible now, I mean, I know like I said before my friends are telling me like old cars, you can get 3D Bania, fractured Auto Parts, but that's a big thing, big.
They're doing that and a jet engine manufacturer in 3D. Is this a feasible Technologies are being used now? Definitely. Absolutely feasible. There was a showstopper, There for a while. The FAA was very concerned and needed to scrutinize every part every material. But now it is seeing you no proof of concept and has become much more accepting of 3D printing.
It's ease the stress that aerospace companies are under and so I think we're going to see a lot more approvals of different materials and a lot more companies starting to service the Aerospace. The other area that 3D printing is changed. Completely is in the medical space hearing aids. I think 95% of all hearing aids in the world are 3D printed.
Well, there are many medical application. Yes. And many medical applications, you know, ultimately hips and knees and you know that are going to submit to 3D printing because 3D printing allows for such incredible customization. So it's, perfectly perfect for the high-value, medical space for Aerospace And autos.
And you know, Auto and aerospace in real trouble. They are going to be turning to new technologies that are going to help them lower their costs lower the fuel consumption in terms of weight and ultimately create different form factors. When we go autonomous. We're going to see that some of us might want to take an autonomous Vehicle from New York to Boston and be able to Sleep in it, whereas others just want to get across town and it can be A very much smaller or across campus.
It can be much smaller. So, we think that entire Auto is ultimately will be 3D printed. Do you have any plans or thoughts about about adding short positions To someone or more versions of your funds? Well, we have internally for employees only. We're testing out a portfolio, but it's really Ark on steroids, if you can believe that we don't think the we want to Test it out on ourselves first and make sure that you know, everybody Keeps their eye on that five-year investment time Horizon as which is Our time Horizon and and doesn't pay attention to the day-to-day Because what we would be doing is shorting stocks that are in the big Benchmarks and when we get into a wrist off situation, what happens is Portfolio managers and analysts generally run back to the Stocks get closer to their benchmarks and they dump our stocks which are either small parts of benchmarks are not in benchmarks.
Great opportunity for us as we have experienced during these last few Days to pick up on those stocks because it's simply a risk off move to Get closer to benchmarks. And by the way, we think the benchmarks are where the big risks are Longer-term because they are filling up with value traps. Those companies that have done very well historically, but are going To be disintermediated And disrupted by the massive amount of innovation that's Taking place, just to give you one number there.
Right now. We believe that Innovation truly disruptive innovation is priced in The global Marketplace, public markets at roughly somewhere between $10-$15 trillion dollars in ten years. We believe that number will be $200 trillion. So it will go from a little more than 10% of global. Equity market caps to what we believe could be more than half.
That's how much disruption is evolving. Thanks to DNA sequencing, robotics energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain Technology. All of which are converging converging. So that S curves will be feeding S curves. We are on the threshold of the most Innovative period in history Bar. None.
I have to go back to early 1900's, telephone electricity. And automobile to see anything like it. Five year investment time Horizon is critical. The next five to ten years. We think are going to be spectacular. Will there be volatility as you say Arc already is a volatile strategy And that is why we say, keep your eye on the prize five years, the world will look nothing like it.
It's today and we're invested in all of the disruptors. The winners that are going to disrupt the traditional World Order.
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