저자: PeterLynch인용 · 외국인
요약 보기
첫째 줄: 장기 투자 원칙과 시장 예측 무용론을 강조하는 영상. 주식시장은 변동성이 크고 개별 종목은 1년 평균 50% 범위로 움직이므로, 1~2년 내 필요한 자금은 주식·주식형 펀드에 넣으면 안 된다고 주장. 투자는 개인이 스스로 해야 하며, 시장 하락을 견딜 정서적 인내심이 핵심이라는 주장. 피터 린치는 리서치 기반 투자를 강조하며 '투자'를 '시장 놀이'로 생각하는 것을 위험하다고 봄. 친숙한 산업에서 기업 재무제표와 실적을 확인하라는 취지. 인덱스 대비 초과수익은 하락할 기업(철강·석유·유통 부진 기업 등)을 피하는 데서 나온다고 설명. S&P500 내 개선 기업이나 S&P500 밖의 우량주(카맥스 사례)도 언급. 린치는 시장 예측이 무의미하며, 13년간 하락 9회를 겪었어도 장기 상승이 더 컸다고 주장. 하락장 우려로 매도하는 것이 더 큰 손실을 낳는다는 취지. 산업 구조 변화(아마존 영향 등 유통, 자동차 저PER)에 대한 질문에는 쇠퇴 산업이 반등할 수 있고 '가장 어두운 때가 바닥'이라는 취지로 답변. 에너지(셰일·원유)에 대해서는 현재 공급 과잉과 셰일 생산 둔화를 언급하며, 미국 생산이 1,250만 배럴까지 늘어날 것이라는 믿음에 동의하지 않는다고 함(구체적 가격 전망은 없음). 2022년 3월 영상으로 현재 시점 기준 과거 발언이며, 특정 종목에 대한 명시적 매수·매도 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
You have the skills, you have the intelligence. It doesn't require any education. All you have to have Don't worry about it, don't panic. You're willing to put in the market and leave it there for 5, 10, 20, 30 years. That's the kind of money you can do well with, if you're worried about it. Don't invest it.
The stock market is volatile, individual stocks are volatile. The average range for stock, in a year is 50% between it's high and it's low Stocks go up and down, The market goes up and down. If you're investing with a One or Two year time Horizon. You shouldn't be an individual stocks. You shouldn't be an equity mutual funds.
If you've been lucky enough to save up, lots of money to send your children to college and they're starting school in two years. What are you going to do if the market goes down? Investing is a personal thing. You have to do it by yourself. You don't do it with a committee. You have to be able to have the emotional strength To stand the volatility of the market in general And stocks in general.
The key organ here is not the brain. It's the stomach. You have the stomach for this. You have the patience. You should be able to look in the mirror and say to myself. What am I going to do If the market goes down? Peter Lynch is near the top of anyone's list of great investors and the 13 years. He ran the Fidelity Magellan fund.
He racked up annual average returns of 29.2%, Remember the Barons Roundtable in the 80s and 90s Peter is on the cover of Barons this week and I went to Boston to get his insights. Here's our conversation. So Peter, you're investing. Philosophy is often summed up as by what you know, and there's some truth to that and it's also often way over simplified.
Can you explain what you did mean by that and what you didn't mean? Well, I know it, bothers me that people are very dangerous. When they invest this word, play, the market, that's a dangerous term. If you do some work, do some research, know what your own. Look at the research. Look at the balance sheet.
You give you hit a date yet. Fairly close to 16 in. Find out. This company has lots. That no cash then trouble should know it. So, a little bit of research peoples carefully buy refrigerator, Carefully take a vacation and they will put five, ten thousand dollar some stocks here, on the bus for the party.
That's dangerous. So, And you say buy what, you know, you also thought that the regular investor might be able to get an inside Advantage by sticking to an industry. He's a familiar with her seeing something that she realizes is a great product. I'm trying to imagine if you were in a mall. Will last 50 years, you seeing Gap.
When was hot, you were seeing women was hot. Lucy was not had it seemed like they were certain people weren't excited about Gap. Any more than you do some researchers? Say, well, gee, there's a lot of limited stores, but we're only 20, you know, they can go to 400. And so you see a company. I did really well, Dunkin Donuts, a local company.
I do well in Stop and Shop but people can see that there's a release of people showing up or just the sunglass hype. No one's there anymore. So that's research. That's fundamentals. So you don't leave the mall. Although by that day, you have to do some more work. That's the important Point. Yeah. So today, there's so much information everywhere information.
Overload. Does that make it harder for active investors? The indexer say everyone's got access to the same. Information of the same time you can't beat the market. Well, the way you beat the index as you avoid the stocks that go down you avoid the steel companies, and the oil companies . and Sears and Penny when it comes to deteriorate, any companies are Dynamic behind, every stock is a comic reason that lottery tickets.
So we're trying to find the companies within the S&P 500. They're doing better. They're going from crappy, the semi-crappy, be to good, that might take a couple years. We're going to grow for a long time. And you trying to avoid the companies that are. Going south. That's how you beat the market. Or you find sometimes outside S&P 500 Great companies CarMax.
was not the S&P 500 then went up 200-fold so, there are a lot of companies that enter Great Performances before they go in. Now a lot of people when they're lucky enough or smart enough to get a company that's going up. They then they take their profits and you made the case in a book that you should actually hang in there with the really great stocks and even got a call from Warren Buffett as a result.
1989. I'm at home, the phone rings. Those weren't my friends, but One of my daughters six-year-old Andy picked up and said "There's a Mr. Buffett on the line" I said, "This is got to be a joke" I picked it up and this Warren Buffett them from Omaha, Nebraska, you know, I read your book. My annual report's due in 2 weeks Can I use the line?
He said it all about seven seconds and I said, that's great. I'd love to do it. What? What's the line? He said, I love this. It's been waiting to do this. When you sell your great companies and add to the losers. It's like watering the weeds and cutting the flowers. He said, I want to put it in. He said, "If you ever come to Nebraska, and you don't call me..." Your name will be mud all over Nebraska City.
So, did you call him? Oh, yeah. I said several times, we'd play bridge together. We've had several meetings, great guy, another point you've made and this is, I think, particularly relevant 10 years into a bull market is that I think you said more money has been lost. Anticipating a downturn than actually in the downturn can explain.
Well, obviously the markets markets gone up 10-fold since I stopped running Magellan. So you make more money. On the upside the Market is going to be a lot higher than 10 years from now. 20 years from now, 30 years now, trying to predict the market is really a waste I don't know what's going to do. It can go down when I ran Magellan, in 13 years declined, 10% of more 9 times.
The market. I had a perfect record. I went down more than 10% every time. Whatever Market went down went down more, but over the long term, the upside is more than downside. So, you're going to say yourself, "Do I need the money in the next month?" "Do I need the money next year?" Do I have kids going to college, do I have a wedding coming up?
Then you're a bad investor. If you keep putting money in, you 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 year. You should do well.. One thing we're thinking a lot about it's the secular changes we're seeing in the market where there's so much disruption that we wonder if certain industries, they may be cheap and they may just keep on getting cheaper.
I mean retail would be an obvious one in some cases victims of Amazon, but even the Auto industry, very low price earnings multiples. Maybe the market see something? Do you think secular changes is moving more rapidly now than it did. In the 80s when you are running money. No, I saw the textile industry deteriorate.
I was recommend all the stocks in the way down. I saw the sheerness go away Industries Industries can go from terrific, too. Terrible. There's a great expression. Then secondly, they helped me a lot textile industry. Yeah, it's always darkest before pitch-black. Things are to get terrible squared. I mean, so just because business is getting bad.
That's not reason to invest Wait, for things to get better. He's again some of you might be involved. In steel may be involved in Gold It might involve an iron. They might involved in plastics. They'll see it aluminum, pick up before I do. So, you might that's a sick little turnaround. That might last 2 or 3 years.
You might see way before Wall Street sees it. One broad area. That you've recently said, might be interesting is energy and it's very unloved on Wall Street right now. What do you see in there? Well, the difference between a glut right now in a short. It's like 1 million barrels a day, you know, the workings of the heart million barrels, a day 1 million each way.
So if the economy stays, okay, and he's Shale Wells, you do a thousand barrels, a day, the first month, year later that 300. Wow, and then they're 150 big drop-off. It's a real treadmill and right now there's no private Equity money. There's no IPOs is no bond market. The bank's one out, private Equity wants out, shales going to slow down.
So you feel I think the show is going to keep growing to 3 million barrels a day. We've gone from five million barrels in the u.s. Producing to twelve and a half. People think that's going to continue. I don't believe it will.
Comments 0