저자: VivekSingal · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 연 26% 복리는 현실적으로 재현하기 어렵다는 결론이며, 초기 버핏 수익은 저평가 기업 투자(cigar butt)로 높았으나 자산 규모 증가 후 수익률이 급락했다는 주장. [영상 핵심 주장] 버핏 장기 수익률 약 19~26% 언급 후, 복리 효과로 수십 년 시 큰 부가 가능하다고 설명. 시청자 의심에 대해 평균 수익률이며 매년 동일하지 않다고 강조. 버핏 공식은 TCS·HDFC·Asian Paints 같은 우량주 장기 보유라는 설명에 대해, 실제 버핏 부의 원천은 그 방식이 아니었다고 반박. 뮤추얼펀드 업계가 이를 마케팅에 활용한다고 주장. [수치 근거] 1979~1986년 연 복리 약 44%, 1979~1989년 약 41%, 이후 1990년대 약 26%, 36억 달러 이후 2010년 이후 약 2.8%, 2007년 이후 약 7.7~8.6%라고 제시. 이 수치들은 자막 인식 오류 가능성이 있음. [전략 변화] 초기에는 저평가·부실 기업(cigar butt) 투자로 고수익, 자산이 커진 후에는 대형주 스윙 트레이딩으로 전환했다는 설명. 자산이 커질수록 수익률이 하락한다는 주장. [종목·시장 언급] PSU 은행(PNB 등) 저평가 상태로 3배 이상 오를 수 있다고 언급. 과거 실적 기반 설명이며 특정 기간 목표가는 없음. [리스크·조건] 시장이 하락하면 0% 수익이 날 수 있고 40% 하락 시 같이 하락하지 않는다는 반론 언급은 있으나 구체적 손실 시나리오는 제한적. [출연자 전망] 단기 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 장기적으로 자기계발과 학습을 강조하는 맥락.
다듬은 글
Hello friends welcome back I am Vivek Singal from tradingwithvivek.com and today 's video is very important for everyone because there are many friends who are already doing business in the market and everyone is worried about why they cannot make a good amount of money in the market because when Warren Buffett sir is kept as an example, he is kept as an ideal, as a model, then his profit is talked about as to what is his profit and when his profit is good, his long term profit is 19% and when I say this many times in the video that money can be doubled in every year and money can be doubled 10 times in every 10 years, which means if the approach is followed for 20 years then it can be 100 times in 20 years or 1000 times in 30 years i.e.
26% Long-term returns can be maintained, so people don't believe it here. They say only one thing: Vivek Bhai, are you such a big king? Is Warren Buffett? Not everyone has made such returns. So, those who are the richest in stock market investing, how can you become so? There is no need to mislead such people.
Such comments do come, but many people do n't comment. The matter remains in their minds. So, I have no problem with this comment, nor with the fact that it remains in their minds. But yes, one thing is definitely a concern. You should stop taking actions like this with such buttons in your mind and don't stop believing that very good games can be made in the market.
Let me tell you one thing: making a 26% return over a period of 10 years is not your destination at all. And if even a little bit of good returns are made, but yes, when we talk about a 40% return or a 26% return, one thing to keep in mind is that we are talking about average returns. We are talking about annual returns.
It is not that this much money will be made every year. If you do n't do well in the market, you will earn 0%. In some part of your career, but when the market rallies, the person who rallied in the market will also earn money. And the one who did not rally when the market was not there, will never make money.
Let's talk about every air. We are not talking about every air. It is not possible that the market falls 40% and our money falls 40%. This does not happen to you. So, what is the truth behind these misconceptions here? When we talk about Warren Buffett's formula, Warren Buffett's formula is to buy the best companies like TCS, HDFC, Asia Paints and similar companies and hold on to them for a long time until the company either becomes overvalued or becomes worthless.
But did Warren Buffett earn his money of around $100 billion in this manner? The answer is no, it's big. No, it is not like that. It is said that Sir has earned his money in warrants in this way. This is the kind of money you can make. I would not call this thing, but perhaps the problem lies from which side.
What the mutual fund houses do is to use Warren Buffett Sir as a weapon here. They use their Ben Ben and Hold Mines Buy Right and Seet Tide Static Co. Buy good companies and hold them for a long time. Only then will you make money. They use this thing as a weapon and do it in such a way that you can make as much money as Warren Buffett Sir if you carry on Buy Right and Seet Tide positions in mutual funds.
Whereas the truth is that you can never make as much money as Warren Buffett Sir in this way. The yield which is 19% in the long term is actually seen to be 19% now, but what was it like in the early years. I will show you a little truth here. First of all, before we talk about it, let us see that Warren Buffett Sir became a billionaire here in 1986.
When he was 56 years old and then billion years in bike, okay, so at that time he became a billionaire and here this is about 1986, how many billion dollars was he worth in 1989 when he turned 59, taking the 56 years forward, his wealth was 3.6 billion, that is, it tripled from one billion dollars to 3.6 billion in just three years, he reached from 56 to 59 years and his money increased 3.6 times in 3 years, so this is not a 19% increase, with 19% increase, money does not even double in 3 and 1/2 years, here it more than tripled, it became three and a half times, so what is the problem with this increase, what is this thing, I want to tell you one more thing, I will clear everything to you, but first of all, one more point which is said, not by and large great company, as long as he is alive, he has made his money on a static basis, not a strategy Sir's money has not been made on the basis of this, it has been made on the basis of strategy, so his money has been generated and has become a huge amount, so what was his strategy, when we search this thing, Warren Buffett, Early Years Trading Starters, he is known by the name of Cigar Bhatt, the concept is as simple as peeking up a discarded cigar butt on the side walk, by the way, one buffet, you look at the company, it has been temporarily beaten, no, but still has some value in them, here if we go into it in a little more detail, then it is clearly written here, environment friends, the word approach to investing is where you try and find a real kid of pathetic company, you are understanding pathetic company, but it sells, so chip, that too has to be bought, it has been seen wisely here, further if you look at this thing on different websites, hunting butt investing is short term investing starters, this is not long term, this is short term investing starters, in which you undervalued stocks are struggling Company, here you understand two-three words, you are understanding which are there here, first of all which is the word short term investing, starters, second what is the underlying, third what is struggling company, so short term investing and struggling company, the picture that has come to your mind today about Warren Buffett, is it of short term investing or of a struggling company, pathetic company, no it has not come now, but in the initial years he has earned money like this and that is why he has been able to make so much money, when I say many times that if you had to invest money in PSU banks, it would have tripled, it would have tripled, half of it, PNB and that will also happen, all this is on the basis of the struggling companies, but they understand that going forward these companies are going to get butter in the shop, why because the underlying conditions are improving, so they have definitely become so cheap that they would have had to go up, from 79 till now how many of their prices have increased I want a percentage.
Where did their calculation of the percentage come from? That box is from Hathway itself. Because no one knows when and how much money was spent before that. But here, the calculation of the worksheet because it is a listed company, everyone has an eye on the power, so their CNG was ticked from here.
Now, this thing was selected here, there is an indicator and the name of the indicator is ' Kagar'. I wrote 'Vagar'. No problem, but Vivek's, no problem, this happens. Saffron Custom Range, clicked it here. No, clicked it here. The first time and the second portion of it were clicked. We calculated it as of today.
This is 19% of the percentage over the period of 79 to 23 years. In IT Mains, the percentage of 21 and 23 is 44 years. Now everyone talks about this 19% because everyone sees that 19% is only at work. Avvak Bhai, you should think about earning more. How can you even do that? First of all, if only 19% was earned by Mr.
Sir, then no one can surpass him. All the records that have been made here are made to be broken, it is all a matter of time. Here I want to tell you one more thing, when Warren Buffett became a billionaire in 1986 at the age of 56, so since this data is available, that is, from the initial 1979 and we are talking about his earnings till 1986, so here I took the chart till 1986, April 1986 and here July, so no problem, this is only 44% during the initial years, you are understanding this, till he did not become a billionaire, his earnings are 44% and not 19%, so here as many times as questions come to your mind and when you want to undermine yourself or consider yourself useless or consider yourself Gujarat has come.
Whether you want to understand or blame your fate, you definitely need to work a little hard. Yes, although I too have limitations; I can't make too many videos, there are other things for myself too. But sometimes when I feel that there is a veil over everyone's mind, it is necessary to remove that veil because India has to be made rich, and individuals have to be made rich.
To make individuals rich, the truth has to be brought before them. And this is what I consider my duty, religious devotion, whatever I can do, duties, responsibility, engagement, according to Shri Krishna, that saree has been seen here and that is why I share this thing with you. So, from the initial 79 to 186, what was the CAG of 44% or when Warren Buffett came from 1989 to 1999, he became the owner of 3.6 billion, how much did he earn by that time?
So, let's change it a little here. We take this data from here to 89. Let's take it up to 89. This is 41% profit. This is not a small amount. From 79 to 89, the profit in 10 years is 41%. I am talking about 26%, that is, doubling in 3 years. If it doubles in 3 years, then in 10 years your money doubles 10 times, in 20 years it doubles 100 times, in 30 years it doubles 10000 times, in 40 years it doubles 10000 times and in 50 years it doubles 1 lakh times, that is, ₹1 crore becomes ₹1 lakh crore.
Even after adjusting the IF, the figures are very big, these are unbeatable figures. This is 26% CRS, here it is 41% profit. Right, now what happened after that, when we became big here, became the owner of 3.6 billion dollars, then it is a story, no story, there comes a pressure of protection on the mind and what that pressure of protection does is that it changes our strategies.
It changes our strategies and how it changes our strategies. No, this time, no, you look into value restocks and pathetic struggling companies, short term investing starters, all these words that he used, now let's take a little N&V approach and earn money by swing trading in big companies. So, when money is earned here by swing trading, when he becomes the owner of 3.6 billion dollars, then he moves from one peak to another, then it moves away from the 41% rate and in the next nine years, if we take this time for 10 years, let's talk about 99, then it reaches the rate of 26%.
By taking out 41%, there is a rate of 26% on 3.6 billion, you understand, in the next 10 years, that is, 3.6 billion dollars becomes 36 billion, with 26% CIR, money increases 10 times in 10 years, so when Warren Buffett Sir We can multiply our money 10 times at $3.6 billion in 10 years. Can't we multiply 3.6 lakhs?
We can't multiply 36 crores. We can't multiply 360 crores. When they can multiply 3.6 billion there, do you know how much 3.6 billion dollars is? It's almost 30,000 crore rupees. Here, we can't multiply 300 crores. We ca n't multiply 1% of it. So, instead of putting questions on ourselves, we should actually go into a little detail.
We will be able to go into detail only when we stop looking at our phones, when we stop watching Netflix, when we stop drinking continuously, and when we avoid domestic troubles, and avoid speaking ill of our friends, and when we bring our mind on the right path, we will meditate on God, sit and change, and at that time, whichever assignment comes to our mind, we will relax a little and start improving it.
After that, it will give you a stable mind, then you will start understanding this thing. I am not fooling you, I am trying to show you the right path because the path to becoming a billionaire goes through this only. Now let's talk about it here, let's talk about the future, after 26% CAG, when they have six billion dollars, then what percentage of growth did they have in the next 10 years, then most people become a little lazy, stop a little and their ability to work reduces and when we again talk about 2010, 2019, what percentage of growth will they have in the next 10 years, so this growth was 2.8%, so what are we talking about here because if we talk from the top to 2018, then once we see when a new peak is formed and after the formation of the new peak, after the top, there is a little concentration towards the bottom, let's talk about before that, this 7.2%, so who is going to do this old big capital tomorrow, there is no one else who is going to do it tomorrow here It was a huge portfolio which was worth 40 billion dollars and if we start talking about the pick made before this from here, if we start talking from pick to pick, this is 7.7%, from 2007 till now and if we start talking from 2007 till now, this is 8.6%, so where is the problem in a nutshell, when he himself became 36 billion owner, after that his share is only 7.8% because at the time when it became 40 billion then I thought that these are just numbers and nothing else, my desires are also not like that, I do n't want to indulge in debauchery, I want to stay in my house or in the office because he is humble, there is no doubt in that, one should learn as much as one can from Warren Buffett sir, when when he was young, he made 100% and became a billionaire, along with becoming a billionaire, he also quickly multiplied his money 4 times in 3 years And after that, since the initial story of Buxar Hathway, we also calculated a gain of 41% and over a long period of time, i.e.
10, 12 years, 13 years, 40 years, 12, 13 years, after that, a series of 26%, friend, was calculated even after that, from 3.6 billion to 36 billion, and after that, only production has been seen, what happens after that, become an investor in the greatest companies and sit quietly, why, because now what is the use of desire at this time, production of money is important, after that, if you also want to fart cool, then fart cool after making a little 40-50 billion dollars, there is no need to study cool before that, there is still a lot of blood here, here it is necessary to work hard, here by dreaming big, working hard on it, improving your skills, learning here, understanding here and moving forward, to understand all these things, I have both Hindi and English versions of my online course which was earlier PET.
I have uploaded it for free on YouTube, you go to the channel, go to the playlist and see it there, when I am sharing all these things with you, then it is your duty too, whether it is a story or a story, to learn these things with the same dedication and implement them after learning, understand, do not read coldly here, friend, you have not grown old yet and when does a person become wise, when will his desires end, when do the six end, whatever six are fulfilled, keep going until the desires are not fulfilled, friend, brave, you keep moving forward, you keep moving forward, I remember that Hindi poem which I used to read in childhood, if there is a sword in the hand, if there is a lion's edge, it has the roar of singing and the national symbol is also there, there too the lion is sitting with the Chakra which is seen on the top of the Ashoka Pillar, keep learning here, keep learning, keep subscribing, keep subscribing, it is important to share with friends here, it is important to subscribe and it is also important just like it is important for me to make videos for you, I will keep making videos, we will meet again tomorrow with the next video, till then Jai Hind
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