저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2026년 2월 고점 이후 금이 25% 급락했으나, 과거 1973·1978·2008년 유사 급락 후 금이 크게 반등했던 점을 근거로 금 재상승을 주장. 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄로 원유 공급 7~10% 부족 및 미국 이자비용 과다(세수의 104%)를 제시하며 중앙은행의 통화 증발(인쇄) 불가피성을 강조. 이후 원자재·금→달러 약세→실물자산→위험자산 순으로 자금이 이동한다는 4단계 시나리오를 제시하고, 비트코인 등 위험자산은 포트폴리오의 1~5% 권장. 영상 내 도서 및 강의 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
In February, gold reached a historic high, but after the outbreak of war, it fell by 25% in less than a month. This contradicts everything we've learned. Gold was not supposed to rise during periods of instability. This pattern has occurred only four times in the last 50 years. And each time this has happened, what followed has been one of the largest capital transfers in history.
In this video, I'm going to show you the exact sequence of movements that took place and how you position yourself before the majority understands what's going on. To give you a more detailed account of the sequence of events, gold was at €4600 per ounce at the end of February. That was an absolute maximum.
Then the conflict intensified. Ormous' D3 was closed and every investor expected the same thing. Gold is rising. That's the typical scenario, but that's not what happened . The metal has fallen by 25% in less than a month. It dropped to €3900 at the end of March. This was the biggest weekly drop since 1983.
Market sentiment went from euphoria to panic almost overnight . Individual investors sold. The margin traders were liquidated. The financial media ran headlines about gold as if it had failed or no longer served as a safe haven. If you only looked at the 30-day window, it would be frightening. But there is a context that completely changes the interpretation.
A fall of 25 % or more in gold during a major global crisis has only occurred four times in the last 50 years. And what happened after each of those times tells a very different story. In 1973, during the OPEC oil embargo and the Yom Kippur War, gold fell by 29%. In the following 15 months , it increased by 117%.
In 1978, with the Iranian revolution and the collapse of the cat regime, it fell by 22%. In 12 months, it climbed 300% to the historical maximum of the time. In 2008, during the global financial crisis, Berstern went bankrupt. Credit markets have frozen. Gold fell by 34%. Then the Federal Reserve announced QE and the metal climbed 180% in the following 3 years.
The average decrease during these four episodes was close to 25%. The current decline from the February maximum to the March minimum has been 25%. But wait, if gold is a protection, why does it fall exactly when we need it most? That's the question most people don't ask . Because when a crisis breaks out, funds with losses on other assets sell what they have with immediate liquidity to cover margins and buybacks.
Gold is not being sold because it has lost value. It is sold because it is the easiest asset to convert into cash quickly. It's a forced sale, not a rejection of the metal. The signal has been given. Gold has already risen above €4050. Central banks have purchased more than 700 tonnes in the past year and China has been buying tonnes and tonnes for 15 consecutive months.
Gold is not the main story here. Gold is the signal. And when that signal is triggered, a specific sequence of events begins to unfold. Gold was the first signal, but what will really drive all this forward is oil. Before the conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the D3 d'Ormuse.
This represents 20% of the entire global supply passing through a single point. When D3 was closed, the world rushed to replace that stream. Saudi Arabia has increased the capacity of its oil pipelines to the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates have redirected their exports via land-based pipelines. The International Energy Agency has released emergency reserves.
Russia has mobilized floating stocks. Adding it all up, we arrived at approximately 12,500,000 barrels per day of replacement supply, of which 4 million are temporary and not renewed. Bloomberg estimates that the actual deficit exceeds 11 million barrels per day. The world is currently operating with a shortage of between 7% and 10% of its total oil supply.
This figure is more important than it seems. In the past 60 years, a decline of this magnitude in global supply has only occurred twice. In 1980, global consumption fell by 4.3% and the world entered a recession. During COVID, it fell by 9.2% and the Federal Reserve had to print 6 trillion euros, with governments sending direct transfers to prevent the system from collapsing.
We are right in the middle of this range now and the consequence does not stop at oil. When energy increases, everything that follows it also increases. Diesel fuel powers the trucks that supply supermarkets. Kerosene powers the planes that deliver the packages. Natural gas heats the factories that produce what you buy.
All of this inflation is already factored into the cost chain. It simply doesn't appear in the prices you pay yet. It takes weeks for the energy shock to filter through supply chains. But it happens. We will soon be making a video dedicated solely to this topic. However, in 2022, when oil prices rose due to the war in Ukraine, the United States had a resource available.
The government opened the strategic oil reserve, flooded the market with supply, and maintained prices for a while. It worked; it bought time. This resource no longer exists. The US strategic reserve is at its lowest level in decades. No government has replenished it when it has had the opportunity.
There is one line that is important to monitor over the past 55 years. Each time US oil consumption has exceeded 3% of GDP, the economy has entered a recession. The trigger is around $120 per barrel. We are approaching that line without any shock absorbers this time. There is a number that almost no one is currently monitoring.
It is called the true cost of fixed-income bonds or true interest expense. These are the expenses that cannot be reduced: social security, public health, and interest on the national debt. In February, this number reached 104% of US tax revenue . In practical terms, this means that the government is already spending more on these fixed obligations than it generates in tax revenue.
Every euro invested in defense, infrastructure or education and borrowed money entirely. Think of it this way. Imagine that your mandatory fixed expenses , rent, car loan repayment, electricity bill, cost more than your entire salary. Everything else you need to live goes on your credit card. That is exactly the tax situation in the United States at this precise moment.
And that's before a recession started. When a recession hits, tax revenues decrease. People are earning less. Companies in Reentici are making less profit. Capital gains [in music] are decreasing. But fixed bonds are not decreasing, they are increasing, and European countries are not far behind. This ratio in Germany is 55%.
Other countries such as France and Italy are also close to this figure. This means that the margin is larger but still remains small. Faced with this, the government has three options. It can drastically reduce spending , which would plunge the economy into a controlled collapse. It can raise taxes in a recessionary environment, which would accelerate the fall, or it can print money.
In 1973, they printed it. In 2008, they printed. In 2020, they printed. The choice is always the same. Not because they want to, but because it's the only option that allows the system to remain operational today. If you want to understand how to protect yourself before each wave of this cycle arrives and the uncontrolled printing of money begins, get the book Frey Fonder Intragn Inflation.
A practical, up-to-date guide with exclusive bonuses for those who purchase it now. The link is in the description. Now let's see what happens once the printing starts. When the central bank is forced to act, money does not flow simultaneously to all assets. It travels through the system in waves and the order is always the same.
The first wave has already begun. Gold and raw materials move first before any official announcement because savvy investors do not wait for confirmation. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional managers see the same mathematical dynamics we have shown here and buy before it becomes obvious.
Gold fell to €3800 in March and has already risen back above €4000. This is not the behavior of those who leave gold, it is the behavior of those who build a position before the cycle is confirmed. Wave 1 has been triggered. That doesn't mean it's over. History shows that gold still has a long way to go from this point.
The signal has been given and what comes next always follows the same order. The dollar is strong right now, but this strength, even in a contradictory way, is a sign of despair. Because when it comes to oil prices in dollars, every country in the world needs dollars to pay its energy bill. Countries that need dollars sell what they have.
Bond, share, reserve to raise cash. This increases demand and keeps the dollar artificially high. But this strength is temporary. Every dollar raised through the sale of US bonds worsens the math of the US debt, increasing the pressure to print. When the Federal Reserve announces easing, the dollar retreats.
This is the history. And when he retracts, he amplifies everything that happened before. Raw materials are becoming less expensive for European and Asian buyers. Demand is increasing. Inflation built into costs is accelerating. Wave 2 does not create the problem. She multiplies it. With inflation on the move and the dollar weakening, investors are beginning to look for assets that preserve value and still generate income or have productive utility.
This is the wave of real assets, real estate, raw material producers, and infrastructure. The clearest example comes from the 70s. Saintis. Real estate has been one of the best assets of this decade. Not because the economy was doing well, but because the currency was losing its purchasing power. Real estate has not become more valuable.
The euro, which was its currency, has become weaker. The same thing happened after 2008. The Federal Reserve started printing money. The dollar gradually weakened and the European property market climbed for an entire decade. For companies that produce raw materials, the logic is even more direct. Revenues increase with inflation while debts remain fixed in a currency that is devaluing.
This is a structural advantage embedded in the economic model. Wave 3 arrives after the first two, but it does arrive. The latest wave concerns risky assets. When the central bank actively injects liquidity and the dollar weakens, this excess flows into speculative assets. Bitcoin is the most direct example.
In 2020, when all countries were printing trillions, Bitcoin went from €5500 to €50000. This was not a coincidence; it was liquidity seeking the most scarce asset available. The herum follows the same logic. In cycles of monetary expansion, limited-supply digital assets capture a disproportionate share of the liquidity flow because they are the hardest to produce in a world where everything else can be printed.
In previous cycles, those who were positioned on the right risky assets captured the biggest multiples of the entire sequence, but you don't need to expose yourself too much to risk. I continue to recommend that this type of asset represent between 1% and 5% of your portfolio. The cycle is quite early.
The four waves always follow the same order, raw materials and gold first, then the weakening of the dollar. Next, real assets and finally risky assets. Anyone who understands the sequence still has time to increase their position in each class before the next wave moves. If you found this video helpful, please subscribe to the channel, like and share the video.
In the coming months, when each wave is confirmed, you will want to follow us. And if you want to understand why gold and silver have recently fallen so sharply, this video appearing on the screen will provide you with the complete answer. You just need to click on it. We'll meet there.
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