저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 현금 비중 확대와 마이클 버리의 2000년 닷컴 버블 유사 경고를 근거로 시장 급락 가능성을 강조. 다우지수 장기 상승 추세가 비정상적이며 큰 조정이 올 수 있다고 주장. 인플레이션을 고려하면 급락 시 구매력 손실이 크다는 점을 언급. 화폐가치 하락 대비로 금 보유를 권유하는 광고 멘트 포함. 단기 매매 중심의 대응을 시사.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett, one of the best investors in our generation, maybe of all time, sitting on the largest stockpile of cash in Berkshire history. Now, he's not the acting CEO, but he has a voice in the running of the company. Like, he's not completely gone. And so, otherwise, he wouldn't have been at the shareholders meeting as a keynote.
Having said that, why are they on the largest stockpile of cash and not actively buying if this is a real legitimate bull market start? You've got Michael Burry who's calling He's saying, you know, this looks really similar to the 2000 tech bubble that we saw. And so, those are two of like the greatest investors in our generation saying similar things to what you're mentioning.
That gives me caution. And so, it's not that we don't participate, it's just that we participate with caution and a strict set of rules around that participation. So, I'm not looking for these long-term gains going into all-time highs on certain stocks. I'm looking for those shorter-term moves that can still find the homestead, that can still find the other projects that we're looking for, lifestyle, homestead, food, all the things that I'm looking to do.
And so, learning that different system of trading is critical, in my opinion, to get ahead in the markets. And so, here's actually I pulled up just to take a look at this, right? This is the you know, Dow Jones um since it's, you know, 1986. And you can look at this. You look at this now and think about the the tech bubble, right?
Um or sorry, the the dot-com crash of 2001. It's just like now it looks like it is a little blip. I mean, even looking at 2008, the 2008 crash was just it seems like it was just a little speed bump, right? It's like, oh, okay, just fell a little bit. You know, it went from, you know, what, for know, 14 roughly 14,000 down to you know, around 8,000 or 7,000, right?
So that was a you obviously was a big drip comparatively, but a big drop, but you mentioned this parabolic move and it's like holy smokes. You look at what's going on here. Obviously, we know that around when you know, COVID hit we had a big you know, drop there when you went down to 19,000 from say 28 or so, but if you look at just I mean just look at the past you know, decade and a half back from say 2010 when the Dow Jones was at you know, say around $10,000 and now it's at $50,000, yet there hasn't been any significant correction.
It's like if what you said is correct, which I I really believe it's just it I think it's just a na- the nature of just matter, right? Every force has an equal and opposite reaction, right? Every action it it's a kind of it opposes there's a balance to things. You know, just looking at this, it's like okay, what is the correction look like?
Um because this does not look healthy to have this much just kind of shooting up growth and again, it's like the bubble that we could see popping from this. I mean, I think it could be it could be literally the greatest wipeout of wealth that the world has ever seen considering that it's not just the Dow Jones.
This is every global economy is reflected in what we're seeing right here. Right. And if you if we took that to scale, so you know, go back and look at uh the real estate crash that dropped about 50%. You look at the COVID drop that dropped, you know, close to 40 something percent. Um now let's scale that and say that we drop from 50,000 all the way down to 25.
How much damage does that do to the average person's 401k? Because what we haven't brought into this discussion is inflation. And so just because the market has a big correction like that doesn't mean that the price of food corrects like that. It just means that your buying power drops that much more.
And that your retirement drops that much more. And so learning how to protect yourself in that environment so that if {slash} when that event happens, like you said, it could be 6 months from now, it could be you know, something that happens from the war going on in Iran, it could be something that happens at the next presidential election.
It could be something that happens 10 years from now. But whenever that large correction does happen, knowing how to protect yourself from it and profit from it so that your fiscal net worth I like using that terminology, that your fiscal net worth doesn't drop but actually increases, that's a powerful tool to have in your tool belt.
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