저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스는 공격적 투자보다 '패배(손실) 회피'가 장기 성과에 유리하다고 주장한다. 테니스 비유로 아마추어는 위너보다 실수를 줄이는 게 중요하다고 설명하고, Oaktree는 신용투자에서 리스크 통제와 일관성을 최우선으로 삼았다. 과열·고평가 시장에서는 큰 손실 회피가 핵심이며, 50% 손실 회복에 100% 수익이 필요하다고 강조한다. 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
So, are we in a world where we should be stretching? Are we in a world where we should be thinking about making money by not losing it? Well, this this is So, uh I'll just take a minute. So, one of the one of the influential things I read was 1974, there's a guy named Charlie Ellis, who is a well-known uh kind of thinker and advisor to investing companies.
And Charlie wrote an article called winning the loser's game. I don't know if you've ever heard of TRW. It was one of the first credit credit rating agencies for individuals like Experian and and that kind of thing. And uh uh there was a guy named Si Ramo, who was the R in TRW, and he wrote a book I'm a tennis player, and he wrote a book extraordinary tennis for ordinary tennis players.
And he he made an interesting observation. He said that in in professional tennis, in championship tennis, the person who wins the match is the person who hits the most winners. You have to go for winners. If you don't hit If you hit a ball back gently, your your opponent will hit a winner and put it away.
You'll lose every point. So, you have to go for winners. Uh but of course, you have to have the skill to execute. And the winning the winner of the championship tennis match will be the person who hit the most winners. But at the amateur or club level, where I play, the winner of the match is often the person who hits the fewest losers.
Because the the club club tennis player doesn't have the ability to hit a lot of winners. And in fact, many don't have the ability to keep the ball in play. So, I believe that if I can just hit it back over the net 20 times, my opponent can't, and I'll win the point. I don't have to hit a winner. I just don't have to hit any losers.
So, So, Charlie Ellis took this idea to investing. Should you go for winners, or should you try to avoid hitting losers? And that appealed to me and given my chicken nature, I said, well, I can win by not hitting losers. And so when we when now Oaktree, my company invest primarily in credit in credit you make a bunch of loans.
If you can make a bunch of loans without having any that default, you'll get the return you were after. So that's a good formula in credit or in fixed income or in debt or bonds, whatever you want to call it. It's it's not a good formula in venture capital or even in equities or maybe in real estate.
You got to have some winners. But but in in credit avoiding the losers is good enough and that appealed to my orientation. So when we set up Oaktree, we wrote down the investment philosophy. Number one is risk control. Number two is consistency. It's all about avoiding the losers. But it's it's a choice that everybody should make based on their skill level.
Look, you know, if if the if the club player tries to hit a bunch of losers, it's going to be a disaster. It should it should be based on your skill level and your ambition. If you have if you if you aspire to be to be a championship player, you should learn how to hit winners and then try to do it.
If you don't learn how to hit winners and try to do it, you'll never become a champion. Of course, most people can't. So you have to pick your course, but it has to be the right course for you. Not for me, not for you, not for your parents, but for you. A and and a lot of life is figuring out what you're about and then pursuing life accordingly.
Most investors believe that to make money in the stock market, you always need to be aggressive. They think the only way to earn big returns is by taking big risks. But legendary investor Howard Marks disagrees. Howard Marks uses a simple tennis analogy to explain this idea. Imagine you're playing against a world-class professional tennis player.
To win, you will need powerful serves, risky shots, and perfect execution. Playing safe won't be enough. But what if you're playing against a beginner? In that case, you don't need any spectacular winners. You don't need to take unnecessary risks. All you have to do is keep the ball in the play and avoid making mistakes.
Eventually, your opponent will lose the point for you. Howard Marks says investing often works the same way. There are periods when markets are overheated, valuations are stretched, and risks are high. During such times, the goal is not to hit home runs. The goal is to avoid unforced errors. Great investors understand that preserving capital is just as important as growing it.
If you can avoid large losses during difficult periods, you're already ahead of most market participants. So, remember, recovering from a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to get back where you started. And that's why in uncertain markets, the smartest move is often the simplest one. Stay disciplined, avoid unnecessary risks, and focus on not losing money.
Because sometimes the best way to win in the market is not by being aggressive, but by playing it safe.
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