저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala/발언자소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Jhunjhunwala는 주식 선택 시 사업 모델과 시장 기회 규모를 우선 보라고 강조한다. 예: 인도 보석 시장의 브랜드화(5%→20%)로 Titan 투자 정당화, Infosys는 IT 확산 기회로 성장. 매도는 손익이 아닌 독립적 판단으로 하며, 자산배분(주식·채권·금 등)이 수익의 약 60%를 결정하고 종목 선택은 40%라고 주장. 과거 사례로 금→Nikkei→Nasdaq 전환 시 연 26% 복리를 언급. 꾸준함과 복리의 중요성 강조. 해설자 자막에 Titan 800배, Crisil 55배 수익 언급.
다듬은 글
A lot of people ask me how do you choose an investment? You know, the most difficult adjective in the English language are beauty in a girl and value in a stock. It differs so much from the beholder. Right? So, how do you find value in a stock? Because for every buyer there is a seller. Some like Nandita saying, some like Sushmita saying.
Some like Aishwarya Rai. So, you know, beauty has its own concept, yeah. So, it's so difficult. So, and you know, when I go to buy a stock, someone is selling it. So, therefore, that person feels there's no value in that stock. Is so how do you choose a stock? So, see the basic thing I will tell you is when you invest in a stock, think of the business model of it.
I'm talking of invest, I'm not talking of trading here. Trading we think momentum, here you think when you invest, think of business model. Right? And I think the first thing I look at when I invest in a company is the opportunity. Would I have invested in Titan if I didn't feel that the jewelry market in India will go, you know, from 5% branded to say 20% branded?
And in 5 years, if 1 lakh crore is going to be the branded market, is a jewelry market in India, the branded market will go up from 5,000 crores to 20,000 crores. So, it's a 15,000 crore opportunity. So, you know, nobody can grow bigger than the opportunity. Think of Infosys. What would have Infosys been without the internet?
Did Infosys in '93 know that the application of information technology will expand the way it did? But it happened and it expanded Infosys tech. Opportunity. So, the first thing we should look at is opportunity. Look at infrastructure. What opportunity does India Right? And of course, when you look at the opportunity, also look at the addressable opportunity.
Opportunity in infrastructure in India will be 25 lakh crores, but my company can only make water pumps. Only the knowns the unknowns make them knowns is difficult. Right? EPS can is predicted to some extent. P is always difficult to predict. But as long as your companies are gathering only P will can come in 3 months.
Earnings can't come in 3 months. Say there was no growth in the corporate sector in in the stock market between say 299 and 2003. Very bad years. But once the market started moving up the P's the earnings were accumulating. The you got the P's just in 6 months. So as long as your company's earnings are expanding, don't worry.
Let me patience. I will lately up first get over get over here patience. Go ahead. Right? And make exit an important decision not driven by profit or loss. I am very important. People want to bloody sell the flowers and water the weeds. So people want to sell the profitable investments and keep the loss moving.
So I think every exit should be and I have a slide on exit. Is should be an independent decision. Right? Exiting an investment. When would I exit an investment? First thing is I have limited capital and everybody in the world whether it is Tata, whether it is Birla, whether it is G capital everybody has limited capital.
So when I find that my asset any other asset gives me rate of return which is better than what I anticipate on this one, I will exit the asset. I will exit some investment, right? Then review of critical factors. Suppose I feel the Titan business model is affected, the growth will not come or or some other companies are able to dominate or the margins are permanently impaired.
Then I may sell. Right? Relative opportunity as I explained the first one. EPS or EPS expectation peaks. This is very You know, in Infosys in 19 2000, McKinsey and NASSCOM did a study. The software industry in India is going to grow 100% every 2 years. So, for 2 years, 3 years, Infosys profits grew 100%.
Everybody assumed for next 10 years it will grow 100%. So, EPS should not peak. May not peak, but if the expectation of EPS peaks, that could be a exit point. Right? And absurd P's because expectation of P is of of absurd expectation, right? I think that's the time to sell. And remember one thing, it's not driven by profit and loss.
It has to be an independent decision. Well, what is this act of investing? How does it start? Why do you link investing only to the stock market? Investing can have various asset classes, no? So, the first task of an investor is asset allocation. Should I put the money in debt? Should I put the money in equity?
Should I put the money in gold? Should I put the money in land? Right? Should I put the money in art? So, how do I allocate my assets? Now, how important is this asset allocation? See, I had to do nothing in life. In 1980s In 1971, if I had bought gold, in 1980, if I had sold that gold and bought the Nikkei, and 1990 89, I had sold the Nikkei and bought the Nasdaq, my return would have been 26% compounded.
You know, 26% compounded means your money doubles in some 33 months. So, over a period of 30 years, your money will be some 40, 50, 60 times. Right? So, this is how important the task of asset allocation. So, the starting point of investing is where just because Rakesh Jhunjhunwala says, don't put all your money in equity.
Right? For any investor. Okay? So, you your first task is allocation. And there can be courses and courses and courses on allocation. And it is the 60% result is your allocation of asset, and 40% is specific assets. In general. Am I right, Rakesh? Right? So, first act is asset allocation. Second is the importance of consistency.
Because we have a lot of students from business families. You know, I come from Agarwal Marwari family, so you always say "Vyaj vyaj." Satara taka, solah taka. Right? And I'm proud to admit it here. I am trading roots. Right? And why not be proud of your heritage? You can't change it, you know. Right?
So, see the difference between a 10% return and a 15% return over over 20 years. So, what's when you when you I look at when you look at Warren Buffett's compounding compounding, no. Marwari got compounding and Warren Buffett got compounding same way. The principal but all or her self principal khone ka nayi or bhale kam mile lekin surely milega.
What missing one year also breaks you down so badly. So, I wanted to point out the importance of asset allocation and of consistency. So, don't go for too many risky too risky assets easily. All right? You heard Rakesh Jhunjhunwala explain how did he choose stocks. He believed that the first thing an investor should look at is opportunity.
He would ask, "How big can this business become? Is this industry growing? Can the company gain market share and become a leader?" A great example is Titan Company. Jhunjhunwala saw that Indian consumers would gradually shift from unorganized jewelers to trusted brands like Tanishq. That insight helped him make more than 800 times his money.
And another example is Crisil. He understood that India's credit growth would be massive over the years, creating huge demand for credit rating and financial services. And this investment delivered around 55 times returns for him. So, the lesson here is find a big opportunity, identify the company best positioned to capture it, and let time do the rest.
Comments 0