저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 부채한도 협상 지연과 고평가 우려로 단기 조정 가능성이 있으니 현금 비중을 유지하라는 입장이며, 협상 타결 시 주식이 상승할 것이라 본다. 거시/부채한도: 부채한도 합의가 마감 직전까지 미뤄질 것으로 보며, 월요일에는 아무 합의 없이 시작할 것이라 전망. 합의가 이루어지면 대기 중인 현금이 시장으로 유입되어 주가가 오를 것이라 주장. 기술주/AI: 나스닥은 AI 랠리 이후 차익실현 국면. 엔비디아는 시가총액 7,730억 달러로 과열 우려가 있으나 AI 핵심 수혜주로 장기 보유(buy and hold) 권고. 어플라이드 등 반도체 장비 관련 언급 없음. 실적 발표 종목: 줌(Zoom)은 마이크로소프트 팀즈 확산으로 경쟁 열세. 홈디포는 무난, 윌리엄스소노마는 부진 예상. 톨브라더스는 주택 부족으로 강세 지속 전망. 팔로알토네트웍스는 신뢰도 높아 매수 권장. 콜스와 아날로그디바이스 실적 주목. 콜스는 어려운 분기 우려, 아날로그디바이스는 산업용 반도체 수요로 좋은 분기 기대. 스노우플레이크는 장기 성장 기대. e.l.f. 뷰티는 강한 실적 예상, 엔비디아 실적 발표 주목. 소매/소비: 베스트바이는 가정용품 수요 둔화로 부진하나 주가 기대치가 낮아 하락 제한 가능. 랄프로렌은 의류 업종 전반 우려 속 100달러 근처로 가면 매수 관점. 얼타뷰티는 충성 고객 프로그램 강점으로 매수 권장. 코스트코는 가격 경쟁으로 단기 실적은 낮지만 점유율 확보로 중장기 매수 권장. 헬스케어: 메드트로닉은 신제품 포트폴리오와 비긴급 수술 재개로 상승세. 에너지/기타: 파이오니어 천연자원(PXD)이 데번(Devon)보다 배당과 성장성이 우수하다고 판단, 클럽에서 매수. 다든레스토랑 매수 관심 표명.
다듬은 글
have money welcome to craigmark other people us as anybody who thought we could get a debt ceiling deal smoothly without Rancor at any time before the very last minute must be a size buyer of the tooth fairy or maybe they think the Philadelphia Eagles fans would welcome Cowboy fans with open arms yes that's exactly how the sellers reacted and Republicans this morning walk out of the meeting with Democrats who are supposedly eager to nail that a deal and it's why we got hit today with the Dallas seeking 109 points let's beat the climb 0.14 in the NASDAQ losing 0.24 now after the raucous rally in the NASDAQ driven by everything A.I it was inevitable that we get some profit taking on the breakdown the talks right I mean and that's exactly we're just too far away from the debt ceiling deadline to get a deal done and it doesn't help that the president's literally on the other side of the world in Japan at this very moment I still believe we'll eventually get a deal here but only once our leaders feel like there is a true gun to their heads in 2011 we got a deal or only when they started worrying that the rating agencies would downgrade our debt which standard reports only did anyway it's why I keep telling you best in club members to maintain a healthy cash position because it's just too easy to knock this highly elevated Market down in the dumps like it did today now next week next week is going to be frankly no different we'll come in on Monday with nothing done over the weekend in a sense that the clock is ticking but the only thing it will actually matter on Monday is the zoom quarter after the close hey you know what something happened to zoom during the coveted lockdown we were zooming all over the place like crazy right but when things opened up it seems like we all ended up on Microsoft teams instead I like to feature Zoom is added including ways to teach people to sell things but at this point it doesn't matter because Microsoft has decided to make teams the default video conferencing application on Windows and that makes it very hard to be Tuesday's more tortuous retail just as we had in the last five days this time it's lows which should have results similar to Home Depot and be greeted with fresh volatility but where she stops somebody knows I was worried about Dick's Sporting Goods being too high given the supporting abuse has not been a strong category so far this uh spring for the retailers who've reported but I I should have been War worn because dicks got banged down nine bucks today maybe that immunizes this well-run company from a big downturn several announced some predicted William Sonoma will have a real weak quarter on Tuesday lately that kind of negative retail story it works so don't be surprised if there is one a disappointment and two that it sends this tremendous retailer stock even lower than it is right now after the close Tuesday Toll Brothers reports that this home builder has been a real horse along with Lennar DR Horton and polti I expect still one more strong quarters the housing shortage never seems to Abate we could be short as many as seven million homes in this country versus demand and every time the FED raises rates all it seems to do is exoperate exacerbate the shortage which then of course drives prices up not down even though that's exactly the opposite of what they want then there's Palo Alto networks now this is the best of the breed cyber security company We Own It for the travel trust I've talked about it a lot in the uh in the at our club meeting Hunter this week Palo Alto has been incredibly reliable even as there are always a couple of analysts who are negative on the story this time should be no different although there is a big tour position being built up against the cash Aurora and Palo Alto for when they report Wednesday is incredibly important because in the morning we get to hear from Kohl's and Analog Devices and in the evening we hear from Nvidia Snowflake and elf Beauty that's uh I slip's face I'm very worried about Kohl's it's been the retail and I can't shoot straight could be the could be a very hard quarter maybe the hardest we've seen of the soft flying department stores on the other hand Analog Devices Chipmunks that could have an amazing quarter why because it's focused on semiconductors for industrial and markets and there the demand has never stopped snowflake's not really meant for quarterly reporting they're building a rent the cloud business that should eventually be huge maybe even take over the whole way that we look at the cloud but you got to be very patient and patience is on short supply on Wall Street still think it's run lately because of its associated with AI with AI it's legitimate connection if the stock weren't coming in so hot I tell you to buy it ahead of the quarter elf beauty is amazing it's one of our Junior grows Stars remember we just put together that great list of 10 that I'm gonna be following all the time it's taken the Cosmetic shells by storm whether it's knockoff products I predict still one more blowout and then there's my beloved Nvidia many people feel this is the most overhyped and overblown stocking entire market right now because it's being valued at 773 billion dollars that is a large marketing capitalization but in the end stocks are valued on their future earnings prospects right and given the Nvidia is the backbone of artificial intelligence You could argue as the best prospects of any company in the entire S P 500 that's what makes it so hard to Value but you know it's not going to be valued and certainly not in this AI obsessed Market what do I say Nvidia like apple own it don't trade it next up is there a stock more hated than Best Buy right now other than Foot Locker which we said we have a small position for the travel trust it's a placeholder we are interested in finding a level to buy a lot of it because we believe Mary did but man was that a bad quarter anyway we keep hearing it nobody's buying anything important for their home because it's already been bought we'll probably get the same story when Best Buy personal Thursday I reminded what we heard on when Sonos reported basically people are full up for stuff for the home I have to admit that I am a little glad that I am not the terrific CEO Cory Barry because it is such a hard job right now the only hope maybe Best Buy stock is so have we shortened that it won't go down even if the quarters miserable that's about as good as it gets I'm sorry sorry now there's medtron this has been a percolating stock of late I think they've got a good Suite of new medical devices now this talk had been weighing in the last couple of years because Medtronic got a couple of backfire quarters some say it was because of covert people weren't going to the hospital now it's on the upswing along with the rest of the group because people are finally getting the non-urgent surgeries that they had to delay during the pandemic hey you want a baby that's being thrown out with a bath water consider this situation Ralph Lauren it had a remarkable quarter last time but now it's being brought down by the overall hatred of apparel now I think Lauren could be a lot more like outlier tapestry than the other apparel stocks I'd be a buyer at this one pulls closer to 100 ahead of when it reports after the close we hear from Ulta beauty and there's been a lot of chatter because of the tougher macro environment they're gonna be hurt I think Ultra Superior retailer that should be bought if it breaks down in reaction to a given quarter or certainly before it even why because of its loyal Rewards program it's got one of the best rewards program in the country go and download the app you will not believe how strong it is then there's Marvel Tech which may be close to the end of a string of tough quarters Marvel's guy key products that are actually needed to move AI data but you hardly ever hear about it now I want to give you something that might seem a little counterintuitive given the hatred for retail I want you to think about Costco I know it won't be a fabulous quarter because the company is what we call share tank mode meaning they're undercutting the competition on price even more than usual but once the share is taken it doesn't go away it's sticky very sticky and that's why you buy Costco now not a couple quarters from now when they're coining money from the new share take finally on Friday there better be a debt deal oh boy because we can't go over next weekend without a deal because we're too close to the drop dead day with a fed doesn't where the treasury's gonna have to I don't know sell oil what are they going to do unlike 2011 where the debt limit was an obscure issue that snuck up on us this year the debt cycle debt ceiling debacle is well known I think it's weighing down the psyche of the whole country the bottom line if we do get a debt ceiling deal it'll certainly move stocks higher bringing tons of sideline cash back into the market even if it's earning more than five percent as of now yes stocks will be that attractive but first we got to go through this whole process the agonizing process so brace yourself and get this keep your fingers crossed Stephen New Hampshire Steve Jim how the hell are you how you been man I'm doing real well can't wait to get started next week already take those two days off that's what they tell me yeah I've been enjoying you for decades back to when you had thestreet.com oh man now that's the go ho now we're dating ourselves what's going on anyway I've been invested in Devon for a while now and it's been kind of sleepy and I was wondering is it going to pick up after uh we get into Memorial Day and should I buy sell we bought Pioneer pxd for the club today I have to tell you that Pioneers got a bigger yield and better growth process right now than Devon so pxd is the one you want to be in Trey in Texas Trey Jim I was heating up leftover shepherd's pie last night when it dawned on me I didn't want this to begin with and I definitely don't want it again I went to my favorite Italian spot and let me tell you there's no flavor fixed like Olive Garden bread sticks do we buy Darden Restaurants here that unlimited salad bowl my daughter and I would go there on Saturday some of the most best members of my life I want to own that stock no I'm wasted Sunday I think you're so right about Darden what a great place the line is the only problem too many people going that's why I don't want to go there can you imagine anyway look if we do get a debt ceiling deal it's going to move stocks higher even though interest rates are high to begin with but first we got to get there oh man money tonight this week we held our monthly meeting for subscribers to the CNBC investing club and we see so many questions from members that we decided to answer some more of them tonight don't miss my take on some of your most asked about Holdings then closer viewers know that amid the mini banking crisis there was one name I told you to hold on to I'm reviewing what it should do and why it should do it and why you should own it and AGCO has a finger on the pulse where our Global Food suppliers and I'm learning work from the company's top Air
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