저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리는 2022년 9월 시점에서 주식·위험자산 약세를 계속 경고하며 "아직 바닥이 아니다, 실패 사례를 지켜본 뒤 바닥을 찾아라"라고 트위터에 밝혔다. 버리가 언급한 위험 신호는 SPAC ETF 실패, 크립토 급락, 밈주식 하락, 인플레이션(8.5%)이며, 2000년·2008년과 유사하다는 체크리스트를 제시했다. 골드만삭스 전략가들도 최근 반등을 베어마켓 랠리로 보고, 단호한 바닥 확인 전까지 추가 약세를 예상했다. 금리선물 시장은 연내 최소 150bp 추가 인상 확률을 81%로 반영하고 있어, 연준 긴축이 이어질 경우 주식 추가 하락 가능성이 거론되었다. 버리는 포트폴리오 대부분을 매도했으며 GEO Group(GEO) 약 330만 달러 규모 한 종목만 보유하고 있다고 전했다. 제작자는 이 내용이 투자 조언이 아니라고 고지했다. 영상은 버리의 최근 경고 내용과 시장 전망을 요약·정리하는 형식이다.
다듬은 글
michael bury has issued a terrifying warning about the current stock market crash and the upcoming recession with mitchell bury saying the worst is yet to come so what was mitchell bury's latest warning about the stock market and economy and what is mitchell bury doing with his investments in today's video we will be answering these questions as well as giving you the latest finance economy news from mitchell bury this video is full of information so make sure you watch until the end of the video to find out what mitchell bury is doing in this current market welcome to financeify the number one finance channel on youtube dedicated to bringing you high quality content and accurate up-to-date information on the global economy and finance if this is something you would be interested in then please subscribe to the channel with notifications on now let's not waste any time and get into it no one can accuse the famed investor michael bury of inconsistency the man immortalized by michael lose's book turned into movie the big short has been bearish on stocks and other risk assets for months on september the 6th and 7th he took to twitter to again warn of trouble no we have not hit bottom yet he wrote in one tweet watch for failures then look for the bottom two spac etf failing is not near enough the s p 500 has dropped 17 percent year to date but rallied in the two months through august 16.
exactly what he means by failures is unclear but it could be anything from bankruptcies by young and slash or indebted companies to cryptocurrency meltdowns as for the special purpose acquisition company exchange traded fund failures the defiance next gen spec derived etf and the morgan creek exo's spac originated etf closed in august the spac market turned into a speculative bubble that has now burst in another now deleted tweet bury offered a laundry list of negatives for financial markets crypto crash check mean crash check spat crash check inflation check 2000 check 2008 check 2022 check in the crypto crash bitcoin has plunged 61 year-to-date recently trading at dollar eighteen thousand eight hundred seven four the lowest since december 2020 meme stocks have hit the skids too one that's in trouble is home goods retailer bed bath and beyond which has lost 67 percent since august 17th inflation is raging with consumer prices ascending 8.5 in the 12 months through july the year 2000 saw stocks fall into a bear market as to com companies crashed meanwhile 2008 was the year of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s and apparently bury doesn't think 2022 will be so hot either others agree he's not the only one who's negative on stocks goldman sachs strategists are part of the club too though their language is less incendiary than burries taking the experience of the bear market since the 1980s including the collapse of the technology bubble in 2000-2002 and the great financial crisis in 2008.
we see a repeated pattern of rebounds before the market reaches a trough it wrote in a commentary in this context the recent rally since june 22 is in our view a bear market rally its duration and magnitude were not unusual relative to the experience of previous decades so where does that leave stocks going forward we expect further weakness in bumpy markets before a decisive trough is established the strategists said given the fed's determination to keep increasing interest rates bury and goldman may well be right that stocks will fall further activity in the interest rate futures market shows traders see an 81 probability of at least another 150 basis points tightening this year the fed has done 225 basis points already since march it shouldn't be a surprise that mitchell bury has sold the majority of his portfolio but he has decided to keep one stock market investment the one stock that michael bury is keeping is called geogroo mitchell bury owns around 3.3 million dollars in geo group stock which although it sounds like a lot of money to investors like mitchell this is a relatively small position so this doesn't mean you should blindly follow bury as he isn't betting the farm on geogroup so what are you doing during this market turmoil let me know your plan of action in the comments below please guys please remember this content is not financial advice and that we are not financial advisors now if you want to hear more about what mitchell bury has been saying about the recent economical and financial crashes then check out the video on screen now
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