저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 자본주의 시스템이 흔들리고 있으며 향후 증세와 재정·통화 정책 확대가 불가피하다는 비관적 장기 전망. 현 시스템 진단: 통화 증발로 투자자 자금이 넘치지만 저수익 상태이며, 기업들은 실적보다 꿈을 팔고 있고 낙수효과도 약하다고 주장. 정치·사회 전망: 좌우 포퓰리즘 대립이 심화되고 있으며, 이는 조세 정책과 사회 결속에 큰 영향을 줄 것이라고 봄. 정책 처방: 교육 등 고수익 투자에 대한 공공 투자와 초당적·하향식 협력이 필요하다고 주장하나, 현실적으로는 그렇게 되기 어렵다고 판단. 재정 전망: 연금·의료 부채를 감당하기 위해 돈 찍어내기가 늘고 마이너스 금리 한계로 재정·통화 공조가 필요해질 것이라 봄. 장기적으로 증세가 불가피하다고 언급. 금리·세금 논의: 금리는 이미 낮아 더 올리기 어렵고, 세금 인상 시 기업 이익이 약 15% 줄어 주가에 타격을 줄 수 있어 신중한 설계가 필요하다고 설명. 종목·자산 언급: 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향성 발언은 없으며, 장기적으로 기존에 시장을 떠받쳤던 요인들이 위협받을 것이라는 패러다임 전환 논의만 있음.
다듬은 글
you say that the world has gone mad and the system meaning capitalism is broken you point to things like the wealth gap and the printing of money and and monetary policy unfunded liabilities what are we going to do about it well let's first touch on what it is okay we we've the necessity of trying to be stimulative when there are not other monetary policies you can't lower interest rates anymore there's been a lot of printing of money and as a result of that printing of money investors are very flush with money and as a result they're taking very low returns and they also the NAM are tech buying dreams rather than earnings and stocks so we pushed that to an extreme in terms of those returns and then at the same time it is clogged with investors so investors having a bunch of bundles of money and then we also don't have much in the way of the trickling down so we do know that we have populism of the left and populism of the right and we're going to come into a period of time where that's going to be more challenging and I don't have big effects on the markets because it'll have a big effect on tax policy but it'll also have a big effect on how we are together so if I take those things the large populism of the extremes and the battle between those two and I take the absence of effective monetary policy and the conflicts that we're having it in the world that's the nature of that market so I believe that we would need to have smart togetherness to engineer a process by which the system works better to produce more equal opportunity and also can raise the size of the pie because there are a lot of good investments investments in education if we're underfunding education if we're doing those some a number of things that could produce high return on investment we'll be better off and so that's my basic perspective and then also I'm pointing out that the pushing to negative rates we're running out and that's going to lead to fiscal and monetary coordination necessity that is very dangerous we're going to have large but budget deficits large that we're going to need to fund those liabilities that we have we have pension liabilities in health care why those that means those is going to be a lot of printing of money and what that looks like is important so that's what I'm saying the system is not working efficiently monetary and fiscal policy and the means by which there is a equal opportunities not working efficiently at a time when we have the circumstances we have so whose responsibility is it then to fix it you pointed out a very scary situation here is it corporate America's responsibility to fix it is that the government is it you know individuals in this country through philanthropy it's gonna solve this I think it can't be done in a fragmented way I would say the leadership whether it's presidents or state leadership sand governors and so on has to take approach where it's a come together approach of different types of people I'm not saying this is likely I'm saying it's necessary because we're going to a warlike environment and so the smart people who are in contact with various on the ground needs to realize that they have to engineer it together to make sure that our economy works well education for example if you look at the education statistics we have to improve education the hell of an investment so I think that's the nature of the beast that it has to be top-down directed it's got to be coordinated it's got to be nonpartisan or bipartisan and I don't think that's likely I think what's most likely is that we as we move ahead there'll be more printing of money that's necessary to fund those deficits there will be bad returns because they'll be driven down and that there's the dreams of selling companies but no longer they're selling dreams they're not selling earnings and they're not even selling past earnings but those things will have to be normalized will have to be rectified time will produce an apparent I'm chip there'll be a paradigm shift where those things that supported the economy and the markets in the past will increasingly be in jeopardy now in the last you know a few years we've seen you know obviously on the fiscal side tax cuts we've seen on the monetary policy side we're now in a lower interest rate regime would you recommend reversing some of those things to accomplish your goals do REITs need to go higher from here no I think that no I think the system is pretty much stuck you can't raise rates because as a result of the stimulation companies and various entities have a lot more debt so it stimulated that the borrowing and the purchases of companies back with borrowed money and all of those things have produced a stimulus you know you can't if you do reverse it it will have the effect of causing prices to go down let's say if we reverse the tax cuts okay and and we're looking at different proposals the proposal to reverse the tax cut and change elizabeth warren's for example would result probably in about a 15 percent change in earnings that would be a 15 percent change in tax the value of stocks and earnings so each one of those things if you reverse them you're going to reverse some of the things that happen in it that has enough consequences so I think you have to engineer things carefully I think that there's lots of good investments that can be made in some things that I'm not we're gonna need to raise taxes and that the question is how its well engineered and whether we're doing that in a bipartisan and a nonpartisan basis there are no simple answers because when run out of monetary policy we've run out of the stimulant that we usually can go to to deal with that situation at the same time as there's this polarity you
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