저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 장은 공포를 이겨내며 신고가를 경신한 '조용한 강세장'이며, 이 랠리는 연료가 충분하다는 주장. [시장 환경·장애물 극복] - 탄핵 이슈는 매수 기회로 봐야 하며, 대통령 탄핵이 시장에 영향을 주지 않는다고 주장. - 장단기 금리 역전(10년물이 단기물보다 낮은 상태)은 연준 과잉 긴축의 결과이며 경기침체 신호가 아니라고 주장. - 인플레이션 우려도 실제 인플레가 크지 않고 디플레이션 요인(아마존, 월마트, 클라우드 소프트웨어 등)이 있어 과장됐다고 봄. - 미중 무역전쟁의 피해는 예상보다 작았으며, 중국 탈출 기업들로 산업재 주식(유나이티드테크, 허니웰, 캐터필러 등)이 강세라고 언급. [개별 종목] - 맥도날드: CEO 부적절 행위로 하락했으나 과잉 반응으로 보고 회복 기대. - 언더아머: 회계 조사·실적 하향에도 턴어라운드 계획을 지지하며 회계 이슈는 과도하다는 입장, 단 실적 우려는 지속 확인 필요. - 보잉: 737 MAX 사태 여파에도 장기 회복 예상, 단기 회복은 쉽지 않다고 봄. - 애플: 밸류에이션이 목표가를 넘었다는 지적이 있으나 강세 유지 쪽 언급. [리스크] - 엘리자베스 워런 대선 후보의 증세 공약이 자산운용사에 위협이라고 언급. - 우버 재하락 등 유니콘 기업 이슈 언급. [시청자 질의] - 치폴레·파파이스 등 외식주 옵션 베팅에 대해 옵션보다 투자 병행을 조언. - 퍼시픽가스일렉트릭(PG&E) 보험청구 이슈에 대해 부정적 취지로 답변(주식은 0이 되는 것이 가장 큰 위험). - 장기 보유 관점을 권유하며 시장의 공포가 상승 연료라고 강조.
다듬은 글
clay Varga I'll do what my friends are just trying to make you some money my job's not just entertained educate you know how the averages hit new all-time highs like they did today dal gating 115 points SP advancing point three seven percent mast that climbing point five six percent I'll tell you how it's done I'm gonna tell you see the market reached unheard-of levels by triumphing over the concerns that cost money matches stainless sidelines waiting for lower prices so they could buy lower prices didn't never materialize you often hear that we climb a wall of worry to get to this exalted levels but today we didn't just scale the wall we breached and busted through minefields force fields and cauldrons of boiling oil this is a quiet bull market no champions no supporters because that's why tonight I want to go over some of the obstacles that we've overcome because this list is pretty darn amazing and the fact that no one okay may be outside of our precedent on Twitter seems to be celebrating is down right ridiculous challenge is conquered that's what I call a graphic all right obstacle number one impeachment now I told you the impeachment wouldn't matter the stock market one way that's based on what we saw Bill Clinton my handy weakness was a buying opportunity not a selling one but it's still impressive that we have a sitting president who's incredibly pro-business and the House Democrats are trying to take him down and the stock markets just ignoring the whole process maybe they should peach all presidents seems to work out well for the averages I'll tell them to recession fears while it is true that job growth isn't quite so fast as it was a year ago it's still very robust versus these bull one but over the summer the yoke of inverted meaning warm term bond yields drop below short-term bond yields and all sorts of commentators told us that an inverted yield curve is an irrefutable sign that we're headed into a recession at the same time I close that was complete nonsense we only got an inverted yogurt because the Fed tightened too far too many times last late last year screwed up and I explained that the problem would go away is to thank you to cut rates still you had tons of investors freaking out just freaking out by the endless chatter I heard it all day I read it all night about how inverted yield curve equals recession you can't afford to take this stuff seriously these people will keep you in your chains I think part of the latest Run has been accomplished because these panic cellars they capitulated and then came back to the stop we're gonna stay watch the yield curve on invert before our eyes and when you do an invert by the way spell check hates it it keeps coming back to everything you have to do uncashed invert there's a little factoid third obstacle we had worries about inflation and now the Fed might need to stamp it out I say worries about inflation as opposed to inflation because we don't have much in the way of actual inflation we just have lots of so-called experts how many times the so call experts I mean I'm gonna wring their necks I mean how could they be so wrong can't believe that the labor market can be strong without closed and rampant inflation that was in one of those I took that class that's wrong now this hasn't happened because in the new economy have all sorts of deflationary forces keeping prices in check like Adobe tonight was just raised guidance they like it just a deflationary monster or the big-box retailers watch that's Walmart Amazon Target Costco Home Depot they strongarm suppliers to the cloud-based software companies that save with labor yeah you know you can file a lot of people some of that stuff but well downsize out of school number four tariffs if you listen to most economists they'll tell you that trade wars are devastating economic growth starting a trade war supposed to be a great way to cause a recession but the reality is a lot more complicated than that which is why our trade war with China simply hasn't done much damage here yeah sorry you gotta admit it hey Tamara like um has it our economy has absorbed huge tax yet most of our fears haven't come true meanwhile American companies are fleeing from China left and right making their goods in other countries to avoid the tariffs we still import a huge amount of stuff from China don't doubt that and some businesses have really been hurt hey we're gonna hear one later not really been hurt but you get the whole scheme of things but for the most part there's been a lot less pain than the experts predicted incredibly the companies were supposed to be hit the hardest there's big industrials they have stocks that have been helping to lead whole charge hired the United Technologies Honeywell Illinois Torx Emerson caterpillar those stocks are flying fifth obstacle the risk of owning individual stocks because of company specific was important we have them today kind of an embarrassing day if you ask me Davis all the stocks of two high quality companies get crushed on some very bad news McDonald's and Under Armour McDonald's which is up in the same town Chicago Bears which are also embarrassing just lost its CEO Steve Easterbrook because he had a consensual affair with a subordinate you she looks the turnaround artists who gave me thousand new lease on life Wall Street loves them stocks up nearly a hundred percent others tenure now the new chief Chris cam kiske has taken over he's a bit of an unknown I don't know this new guy I mean I do know that meet the distorting valves had a real strong bench and I'm not gonna hold Easterbrook's ill-advised behavior against this great American institution in fact I actually think at this I'm the only one who's been saying this it's been rocked the stocks been rocked by us slightly weaker the same store sales domestically our Wendy's at breakfast which is coming out I think it down here you know what it stuck was it to 21 I I think your Briard then maybe you buy it tomorrow after some clam I mean just some people downgraded I'm betting the risks start to get baked in there under armours much harder although the Baltimore Ravens won big against the pads they're from Baltimore anyway the company just cut his forecast in the same day that we found out the Justice Department and the SEC have investigating its accounting practices on one hand Under Armour has a plan to turn things around and it's doing much better than it was when it comes to balance sheet in the inventories that's just true when the other end is powerful deep pocketed competitors like Nike and Adidas has to deal with fickle consumer as far as the accounting scandal let me give you my view as bad as it sounds I believe there are no revenue recognition issues those are the kinds of things that really lead to severe consequence I'm actually taking them off the table I don't want to give you any false comfort here but let me just say I'm far more worried about the turnaround then am about the integrity of Kevin Plank and his enterprise I wouldn't be surprised at the accounting issues actually blow over if it were really bad you know what I don't think the government even allowed them to report let alone issue a forecast however I can't recommend me invite beer here yet I don't want to be here oh my discipline says that both the accounting irregularities and the issues with the sales have to play out a little more meanwhile we've got more accounting issues from from Trulia the ones read on cloud stock this thing has been twice hit by problems and they're trickling out that's the worst way I stood behind Twitter for ages now I look naked as a jaybird what is it j-bird my wife said I was naked as a jaybird what does that mean i-i've never seen it jabber it's like a blue jay bird just something to ponder okay I have to Lea's owned by the Travel trust and boy do I feel stupid and we got to find out what the hell's going on here because man this is one nasty ol ass situation and these are only the latest offenders maybe dealing with the dire situation at Boeing caused by their negligence that led to the 737 max crash but they're starting to talk about it on every single show check that okay I guess somehow Boeing is stock is up nine percent for the year and we watched General Electric flail around for ages I think both will eventually recover but it's not gonna happen overnight there are a host of other companies in the world worried I mean how can we not be a company's issues Trent brexit I mean how about that I'm as chaos right how can Wall Street not be afraid of senator Elizabeth Warren who Chris Lee seems like the front-runner in the primaries money managers are terrified of her because she wants to raise their taxes and of course this pure valuation is used many stocks like Apple have overrun their price target then this evening we've got we have uber going down again I mean what does that does that Unicorn issue but here's the bottom is bottom one these obstacles are exactly what makes a bull market drive one they caused investors to go negative and then as the averages rally these same people come back in at higher levels sending us still higher these are the people by the way who trade Apple remember what I say about Apple what do I say right okay the panic money managers they represent the fuel that this market needs to go higher and right now this rally it's got fuel in spades okay why don't we start with Jared in Tennessee Jared hey mr.
Cramer how are you I am good Jared how about you I'm fabulous man I just want to tell you I'm brand new to trading and I watch you every day and I've looked at your guidance with us so I just want to tell you thank you first you're quite welcome Jared I'm gay I'm glad you're aboard because there's money being made I'm gonna say that money's being made right is that against the law to say that no I say that's what I'm saying I'm ready to make some money I'm due to it I'm excited okay I like this call go ahead awesome so I'm new to charity but I had a hunch q sr Popeyes Chicken I looked back at it in August he looked like this jump ah dollars so I've been playing options I'm wondering if it's a smart idea to bet on it going up maybe $5.00 okay I think you should be investing not necessarily trading options quick-service that's a Burger King and that's a papaya because they got a chicken thing doesn't mean that they're going to beat the numbers I want you to be a little more careful though the impossible burger by the way they kicked up the Morningstar the Impossibles going nationwide and let's understand each other that's got GMOs so yeah I'll sanction some option trading but don't forget to invest too cuz you got your whole life ahead you can buy some of the speculoos socks I like your attitude though let's go to the governor let's go to fill in New Jersey Phil but be equal to MU you don't worry I am doing fine I'm telling you we made the Bears look well I like the Bears look like guy the guy used to throw McDonald's haha go ahead do that be nice wouldn't it yes maybe someday when I have a question for you Jim so I bought a stale order right it's you know 12% off the tire right horny then I bought a little bit after earning okay the stock continues to go down I don't know what school is gonna sting the plummet down I mean what's happened is like the Procter & Gamble's all the stuff that is recession I parked again was that $4 80 cents this is because people are not going to recession now I always said we weren't gonna recession but nobody listened to me except for maybe my wife and even she didn't really care for I had to say maybe my dog but now I'm on track it's not gonna be a recession why don't we go to Alex in Florida right now Alex yeah hey Jim how's it going not bad Alex thank you how about you doing well okay it's good good conversation so far what's up so I just wanted to get a general sense of how you feel about a Pacific Gas and Electric right now you know with Val post betting on their insurance claims overall what do you think will happen wise man once said that the greatest thing about stocks is that they stop at zero do I need to say more how about Leon in Pennsylvania Leon good evening professor Cramer oh yeah thank you for giving me your question is about tell I've been buying the stock since the CEO was on the show laughs yeah and right now it's down today and I'm wondering bytes dollar hole oh I think it's five then we're gonna you know we have a sir fact I did that from the SAT of Matt gas in this country and it's really really low and you know here we are we're vet we're betting with stream Sookie so far so good just remember is a long term play okay these ops pools right here are typical of what drives the bull hire it's all this skepticism the Abrams we've overcome all these old man bunny type it's China behind this train strengthen this market I'm gonna give you my take care for recent action then has wayfarer lost its mojo but the stock down more than fifty percent from its all-time highs I'm breaking it down and it's the company behind the brands of Mashable and PC Mag and it just hit a 52-week eye and I think it's going to go a lot higher but you better never even ever heard of it I'm sitting down with the under-the-radar online media and cloud services play j2 Global to see if it's worth going here I suggest that you
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