Ray Dalio On What A Bank Is In An Economic Cycle

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결론: 은행과 신용 사이클, 디레버리징 과정을 설명하며 부채 대비 소득 비율을 낮추는 세 가지 접근(긴축, 부채 재조정, 통화 공급)의 균형이 중요하다는 교육적 강연이다. [은행의 기본 구조] 은행은 예금을 모아 대출하고, 이자를 붙여 상환받는 단순한 구조다. 신용 사이클이 역방향으로 돌아 대출자가 상환하지 못하면 은행이 손실을 입고 문제 은행이 된다. [디레버리징의 연쇄 작용] 신용 수축 시 자산(주식) 매각이 늘고 지출과 기업 이익이 감소한다. 은행 부실이 겹치며 금융위기로 이어지고, 민간 부채는 증가하지 않는다. 중앙은행이 금리를 낮추지만 금리가 0에 묶이면 정책 여지가 사라진다. [긴축과 부채 재조정의 한계] 긴축은 부채 문제 해결의 출발점이지만 지출 감소가 타인의 소득을 줄이는 피드백 루프를 만든다. 부채 불이행과 재조정이 늘어나지만, 한 사람의 부채가 다른 사람의 자산이므로 채무 감액은 자산 감소와 소비 위축을 낳는다. [통화 공급의 역할] 1929년 대공황 이후 1933년 3월 루스벨트가 금본위제 연계를 끊고 통화를 공급하며 디플레이션 압력을 완화했다. 통화 공급은 인플레이션 요인이지만, 긴축과 부채 재조정과 함께 쓰이면 부채 대비 소득 비율을 낮추는 균형이 된다. [결론 및 시사점] 이 과정은 보통 10~15년 걸리는 '잃어버린 10년'이며, 세 가지 접근의 균형이 잘 맞으면 고통을 줄일 수 있다. 강연은 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 가격 전망을 다루지 않는다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. fact what is a bank a bank is a very simple thing people gather they put money in a bank that person goes and lends it that bank goes and lends it to some other people and they then hope to get paid back at a higher interest rate that's what it is and so when those people can't pay back because they don't have because that credit cycle starts to work in reverse and they can't pay back then the banks get in trouble they lose money and when they lose money then they're bad banks and the whole system works so you see that at the same time as there's a contraction in credit there is a stock market falling because you need to sell assets and because of the contraction and credits people are spending less earnings of companies go down so the companies are worth less and because of then the debt problems the banks don't do well so we have a banking crisis so you see that that de-leveraging happens and in the ways that we're used to happening the debt private sector debt doesn't increase uh spending is less uh banks get in trouble markets go down and so on and it's not enough money the central bank lowers interest rates interest rates hit zero they're stuck so that's a deleveraging and that's a that's a depression part of it deleveraging take the 30s take japan's deleveraging these are iconic deleveraging and rd leveraging at first um austerity is the path because you realize oh debt is a problem and what we all have to do is uh stop um getting into more debt that becomes obvious we can't continue to do that so we go through the austerity but as we go through that austerity there's a feedback loop because that was lack of spending that lacking of debt causes somebody's else's income to go down okay so then there's a there's a problem because of the debts so we go to we encounter a lot of debt defaults and we think about uh restructuring debts those debt defaults means okay how do we re-enter an agreement in which we can get past that that you can pay what you can afford and so there's a a debt restructuring a lot of debt restructurings but the debt restructurings also don't help because well they help to some extent but they they also bring with them problems because one man's debts are another man's assets so if i lower your debt let's say i'm when you do restructuring you can pay half your mortgage you come in we'll readjust your mortgage and you can pay half then i have to write down that mortgage and so my wealth goes down and as my wealth goes down i can borrow less and i can spend less so it feeds on itself so the problem is that there's too much debt relative to income so you can reduce the debt by having austerity and cutting your debt and that's good and that's deflationary and it's negative for growth because austerity means less spending and you can restructure um so that is deflationary and it's negative for growth and and so that produces a lot of pain at the same time so um like in the in the 30s 1929 stock market crash and you go through that and it keeps feeding on itself and it's not enough it's not good enough because it causes that self-reinforcing process and then eventually the central banks print money so in march 1933 which was the bottom of the great depression president roosevelt severs the link with gold and and prints money because money a debt is a promise to deliver money so if i can slip a little money into the system it eases that pressure the printing of money people think is inflationary and in and of itself it is inflationary but if it's happening at the same time as the other deflationary factors are happening so that there is still um austerity there a certain amount a certain amount of um restructuring or working out debts and the amount of printing so that they balance all three of those approaches have the effect of lowering debt relative to income so you can lower debt relative to income without having a you know a terrible situation it's still not this takes a long time they call it the lost decade um these countries go through lost decades it's usually more than a decade maybe 15 years but it's an adjustment process if done well in which there's the right mix between austerity not raising debt relative to income restructuring getting the debt payments in order and putting enough money into the system so you're seeing