저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 실적 발표 전후의 옵션 전략(방향성 낙관 베팅, 변동성 전략, 델타중립 전략)으로 반복적으로 수익을 낼 수 있다는 주장이다. [실적 전 방향성 베팅] 실적 발표 2주 전 대형 기술주(FANG 계열)에서 강세 모멘텀이 나타난다고 주장한다. 실적 발표 2주 전 월물 콜옵션을 매수하고 발표 하루 전 청산하는 전략을 제시한다. 구글(알파벳)과 페이스북에서 승률이 높았다고 설명한다. 애플, 넷플릭스, 아마존은 동전 던지기 수준이라고 언급한다. 수익률 목표나 손절 기준으로 옵션 가격 30% 상승 또는 하락 시 청산하는 규칙을 둔다. [실적 전 변동성 전략] 실적 6일 전 ATM 스트래들을 매수하고 실적 당일 청산하는 방식이다. 애플에서 7회 실적 주기 동안 약 43% 수익을 냈다고 설명한다. [델타중립 실적 전 전략] 30일물 스트래들 매수와 주간물 스트래들 매도를 결합한 롱숏 스트랩 전략을 제시한다. 아마존에서 8회 연속 승리, 3년 데이터 기준 승률 92%, 수익률 286%를 주장한다. 손절과 익절은 각각 20%로 타이트하게 설정한다. [실적 후 전략] 실적 다음 날 진입, 7일 후 청산하는 아이언 콘도르 매도(숏 변동성) 전략을 제시한다. 페이스북에서 11승 1패, 수익률 63.6%라고 설명한다. [실적 후 변동성 매수] 테슬라에서 실적 후 한 달간 아이언 버터플라이 매수 전략을 제시한다. 최근 8번의 실적 월 중 7번 수익, 수익률 107%를 주장한다. 테슬라의 실적 관련 변동성은 분기 판매량 발표 시점에 나타난다고 언급한다. [종합] 발표자는 종목을 개별로 보지 말고 포트폴리오로 리스크를 관리해야 한다고 강조한다. 이러한 전략은 옵션 시장에서 준비를 통해 수익을 내는 방법이라고 결론짓는다. 과거 백테스트 결과이며 미래 수익을 보장하지 않는다는 명시적 경고는 없다.
다듬은 글
today we're going to focus on trading during earnings periods we'll look at pre earnings trades and post earnings trades but we'll also look at aggressive momentum trades directional bets volatility events with no direction and also volatility scalps so there's something here for everyone so let's get started we'll start with our first pre earnings pattern I call this a directional bet on optimism so one of the least recognized but most important phenomena surrounding this bull market is the amount of optimism that sets in the two weeks before earnings in the mega technology stocks we're talking the fang stocks now this is totally irrespective of whether the stocks have a history of beating earnings and in fact many of them don't but in the two weeks before earnings there is a massive momentum rally into the event let's look at a simple idea let's just buy a monthly call option in Alphabet two weeks before earnings and sell them to call before the earnings announcement so we'll get long a call we'll go to custom earnings handling we'll open the trade 14 days before earnings and we will close the trade one day before earnings we are not taking an earnings bet this is a pre earnings trade and here are the results we can see across the board this has been a winner it looks like the 35 Delta has been the sweet spot and just to see what's happening and how these ridiculous returns are forming we can look at the stock price this is a two-year stock chart of alphabet where the Blooey icons represent the earnings dates what's so interesting here is that while the stock almost always rallies before earnings you can see that with these little yellow arrows into the earnings the stock goes down off of earnings a lot in fact that's what these yellow rectangles are this is how many times alphabet missed earnings it's just a coin flip but it never interferes with this optimism this bullish momentum now by the way if you're wondering why I'm not looking at more data that's actually on purpose if we're going to try a pre earnings momentum trade we really want to focus on the most recent data but there is a time when more data is better and we'll look at that soon while we're looking at this we might as well look at the rest of thing so I'm just going to put the rest of the tickers in here comma delimited as I said this works with all of the mega tech stocks but we need to do to find the best trades is to focus on the win rates Netflix and Amazon are a coin-flip even though the returns are positive these aren't the best of Bri but a good trade turns into a great trade only after we do risk control so let's drop a tight stop on these calls and also a tight limit we'll go down to the close trade one section we will close these long calls if they go up by 30% in a two-week period and we'll also close them if they go down by 30% in a two-week period all of a sudden the trade is clearly an alphabet and Facebook not Apple Netflix or Amazon so let's focus on those two now we can see the staggering returns and we can see 15 wins on one loss if we held these two as a portfolio and just so you know we're not pulling a fast one on you and that calls always work on these companies we can just look at the 15 days after earnings so we'll open one day after earnings and close 15 days after earnings these trades are actually negative so this is in fact a pre earnings momentum trade based on the personality of this bull market now let's focus on our second career earnings trade and this is not a directional momentum bed rather it's a volatility momentum bit this trade takes no stock Direction risk at all we'll look at all of Fang again and this time we're going to test buying an at the money straddle but now we're going to go to custom earnings and we're going to open the trade just six days before earnings and we'll close it on the day of earnings now here's a note all of the Fang stocks report earnings after the market closes so when we close the position on the day of earnings we're still not taking the earnings risk if you do this with other companies make sure you know what time they report earnings and you may have to change this number to a one rather than a zero let's see the results we've already got our strategies for Facebook and Google and it looks like of the remaining ones Apple looks the best it has the highest return and also the highest win rate let's focus on Apple now you'll notice that we still have our strict limits and stop losses and what we get is a 43% return over 7 earnings cycles but remember this is just a 6 day trade each time so we're actually looking at an option trade with no directional bias that went up nearly 200% on an annualized level all right so now we have our Beaupre earnings trade which is non directional and we can add that to our alphabet and Facebook trades now this was slightly more advanced which is to say this was buying a straddle rather than a call so it didn't make a directional bet but we did make a volatility bet we got long volatility now let's look to our third pre earnings trade this is going to get a step even more advanced and I would consider this next trade we're going to look at together to be expert level option trading we're going to look at a trade that is delta-neutral earnings neutral and much closer to volatility neutral we're going to use a pro feature which is a custom strategy this feature only comes with trade machine Pro now let's build our strategy so click Custom and click Add we're going to want to buy and at the money straddle that expires in 30 days so a call and a put and we're going to want to sell and at the money straddle in the weekly options so again we're buying and at the money straddle with the 30-day options we're selling and at the money straddle with the weekly options we're going to close the entire trade together so we're going to check this box let's give a strategy a name we'll call it a long short strap and then we save it now remember we're still looking at this very short window specifically opening the trade six days before earnings and closing on the day of earnings again these stocks report earnings after the market closes so as zero is okay here if any of these stocks reported before the market opened we'd have to put a 1 here let's go ahead and do this for all effect and here are the results over two years it's pretty clear now that we should be focusing on Amazon which has won all eight times with a 207 percent return but this is actually a strategy where we would want more data rather than less this is not about momentum but about a volatility pricing mechanism or a volatility scalp so now we take a little bit more data and we'll look at three years let's focus on Amazon now this trade if should not vacillate a lot and if it does we have made the wrong bet and we're going to want to exit so let's tighten our stops in our limits down to 20% each that is if the strata jeez up 20% within the six day period we'll close it and if the strategy is down 20% within the six day period we'll close it all of a sudden we have a trade that takes no stock direction bet no earnings bet almost no volatility bet has extremely tight stops and we see a 286 percent return with a 92 percent win rate that is it has won 11 of the last 12 earning cycles and now we have our pre earnings trade for Amazon and before we found the trade for Apple and then before that we found it for alphabet in Facebook here they are we should consider them not one at a time but rather as a portfolio to manage risk we're taking delta bets we're taking volatility bets and then we're taking a volatility scalp alright now it's time to look at the periods right after earnings everything we've done so far has either been long volatility or been volle neutral let's look at a short volatility trade now we will look at selling an iron Condor so we will put all the fang stocks back in here we'll go to iron Condor we'll go to short we'll go to custom earnings and now we're going to switch it to one day after earnings that's when we open it and closing it seven days after earnings so now we're looking at our post earnings trading and this is one week at the same time instead of using the monthly options here let's use the weekly options so put a seven now it's pretty easy to see here with our short volatility trades that Facebook is the clear winner we see a 63.6% return with eleven wins and one loss we can go to two years as well now over the last two years this trade has won eight times and never lost and again this 44 percent return is over just eight weeks of trading now we have our first post earnings trade and this is also our first short volatility trade now let's look at our second post earnings pattern and this one is to own the volatility this trade is also right after earnings but it's looking for a stock that moves more than the option market is pricing it and there's no surprise here we're going to take a look at Tesla we're going to look to buy the iron Condor we're going to change our custom earnings to start two days after earnings and 29 days after earnings that is we're looking to trade the full month after earnings and we will use the 30 day options we can see that owning the 50 20 iron condor which is really an Iron Butterfly has won seven of the last host earnings months in Tesla with a 107 percent return you can also see how the other deltas have done here I note right now that we consider Tesla's earnings dates the date that the company releases its quarterly automobile sales figures not when it reports its revenue in EPS just keep that in mind if you trade this name that's when the volatility occurs alright we went pretty fast but even just limiting ourselves to a handful of stocks we found five great trading opportunities surrounding earnings we found that we could play momentum optimism in long calls for Google and Facebook two weeks before earnings we found a delta-neutral volatility momentum trade which was long an Apple straddle one week before earnings we found a volatility scalp in Amazon with a sophisticated long straddle short straddle play but remember none of these trades stayed open during the earnings event remember that these are not earnings coin flips after earnings we found other possibilities we saw that selling the volatility in Facebook for a week was a winner and buying the volatility four months after earnings in Tesla was a winner now of course we just focused on earnings related trades if you like trading the actual event we have a button for that you can just click only trade earnings and test any strategy you want whether it be custom or pre built during the earnings event and of course for all other times you can always just select never trade earnings and you can do the same thing you can create your own custom strategy or pre-built strategies and finally it bears repeating what we just looked at the Fang stocks and Tesla we cover every stock and every ETF and every index in North America as well the opportunities are there you just need to find them so this is it this is how people prop from the option market its preparation not luck thanks for watching
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