Tom Lee Millennials Are Powering Wall Street In Crypto

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비트코인 약세장은 아직 진행 중이며 2014년 사례처럼 바닥까지 시간이 더 걸릴 수 있다는 진단. 2008년 금융위기 당시 JP모건 약세장 분석 경험을 회고하며, 당시 S&P500 바닥을 667~720으로 예측했던 사례를 소개함. 비트코인 차트를 2013~2015년 하락 패턴과 겹쳐 보며, 약 6000달러 부근에서 바닥을 형성할 수 있다는 관점을 제시함. 다만 기술적 분석의 추가 하락 가능성은 인정하면서도 큰 시간을 더 소요하지는 않을 것이라고 봄. 주요 알트코인은 4월 이후 반등에도 대부분 70~90% 하락한 상태이며, 활성 사용자 기반이 탄탄한 프로젝트만 상대적으로 버티고 있다고 설명함. 시장 타이밍의 위험을 강조하며, 비트코인의 최고 수익일 10일을 놓치면 장기 수익률이 크게 떨어진다는 데이터를 제시하고 과도한 매매를 경계함.

다듬은 글

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01. 2008 is not because of the Genesis clock I'm actually taking you back to the fourth big point was created to the great financial crisis okay and the reason 2008 matters is the stock market and there was we had a 2008 was the largest ever since the Great Depression okay so we have it essentially a Black Swan event none of us really like at JPMorgan where I was a commitment strategists we were living history in the middle of the worst bear market but what's interesting is I have a cover for a report we published in November as we did a study about bear market since November 2008 so again this is only you know in the middle of that crisis and because you had occupied Wall Street crisis and we had a major intervention by central banks and we had even a lot of turmoil in elections because people were very worried that there's a very easy way to look at their markets and our new was corrected and they think of it as a function of time highlighting the if the time people talk about today and we just simply pointed out that the Great Depression and so then we made this prediction and that JP Morgan weirder we were not for folks to do analysis opinions but our analysis said that we thought the bear market would bother at 667 to 720 before and that's just simply using the concept of retreat so again even though people thought the world was ending we were actually turning kind of optimistic because we thought we were near the intended to bear market and of course if we look back where did the bear market and very involved at 666 so it is one point where we thought it wouldn't end and this is in T doesn't it so that turned out to be one of my vets calls it actually may be quite well known at JPMorgan because we and we and for many years we were known as the Google and it's helpful to start in 2014 so this is a Bitcoin and I want some dates you the there's 100 that's November 29 2013 and I marked the price one month before Bitcoin 2014 400 days but the price bottomed on January 2015 at 180 roughly which was the price Bitcoin was at the end of October 2013 meaning it took more than a year for Bitcoin price to fall to where it was one more report with peril so let's say the best define the bottom of the two there's another coincidence to the mine in 2014 that we even crossed 190 to 200 dollars and did point bottoms essentially at the cost of money so 20 so what's interesting is that analogue plays out this point should be bottoming around 6000 and I think that's why you're seeing between Queens breaking the money box and something we talked about four on one side it is bringing boxes around 6000 and again that's what bitcoin seems to be so even if these charts kind of overlay together in some ways maybe you know you should I'm not saying that there is I know a lot of technician and technical announcements very important crypto see further downside but I guess my point is I don't think we're gonna spend a lot of time balloons ourselves and in fact I think the bear market for Bitcoin is PI over it's still happening in multiples this is the price to France various crypto constituents we set the right market since April and as you can see big point is up about 10% since April but it's really all coins and black ones and changes that is in a continuing market and they're down 7114 50% and again this is just showing you the data formats that if you look at active users to change your date and the y-axis is the price performance the the best are the ones that Hatteberg from the user base and you can see here in classic is right there saying there's obviously a high quality markets actually being wrecked they're just devaluing projects to do have a lot of users and this should make you feel a little better about the world senior this chart shows you the of all claims that are down 70% in the past nine months and that number hit almost 90% and that was and again just to see what happened in 2013 that same line the top and the bottom is way more than caps market cap X big fancy with that point Bitcoin was weak pulse were weaker for another week or so but then they actually don't want tripled so don't lose hope I guess that first part of our message and again they were my hair because we don't want people to trade too often take the ten best days Bitcoin in in here that is the light blue line okay and the dark blue line the dark bars fire infused Saul's between when you didn't own them on the ten best days interestingly you watched money every year twenty nine twenty five percent a year except for the ten best days