저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 올해가 'make or break year'이며 자율주행 30개 도시 확장, 안전요원 없는 운행 확대, 사이버캡 양산(Austin 기가팩토리) 등 3가지 마일스톤 달성 여부가 핵심이다. 판매 안정화와 중국 성장을 긍정 요인으로 보며, 자율주행 자체가 약 1조 달러 가치가 있고 불마켓 시나리오에서 3조 달러 밸류에이션이 가능하다고 주장한다. 실패 시 주가는 650~700 이하로 밀릴 수 있다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
Everyone thinks Tesla already won EVs, but Dan Ies is basically saying if Musk screws up these first two moves, a $3 trillion dream turns into a busted growth story. Stay to the end because the second must do is the one that could quietly decide whether Tesla is valued like a car company or an AI platform
for Tesla. I mean, look, if you're owning it for numbers and for the car business, I mean, I think that's the wrong reason. I mean, imagine but but it has to fund the other stuff, right? And it's funding it in part through selling cars. So, it has to sell enough cars in order to not just make a profit, but also to fund some of these ambitions, right?
I look at almost like a bracket, like in other words, like a worst case, base case, best case. as long as it's sort of above a worst case and I think now it is in terms of deliveries then the business model continues to play out and that ultimately does fund what I really view as the key piece right- which is autonomous and robotics future look in terms of if you started this year and I told you where numbers was going to be at the end of the year you're like where's the stock going to be based in those numbers you'd be like ah it's 200 buck 250
right but but it speaks to my view you have talked about a lot is the when you look at physical AI plays there's Nvidia and Tesla's I think the two best out there and now it's about proving it out but that as an investor right now if you're bullish on Tesla you're not focused on consensus 26 of course you but but to your point I do think deliveries has stabilized I think China's actually shown growth and you look at the last few quarters like you it's actually better than expected
I'm curious because you said you have worst case, base case, best case. What's your worst case scenario for Tesla? Well, I think worst case if you go back like 6 months ago, I mean, we we felt like worst case. Yeah, it felt like worst case because also given deliveries, given a lot of the brand issues, given what you saw in Europe and obviously, you know, tax credits coming off in terms of the US.
So we were trending toward a worst game and look it spoke to to my view where Musk need to be wartime CEO focused on this core Tesla chapter which I view is probably the most important chapter ever for Tesla and for Musk. So I think you now are seeing a different Elon. You're seeing a different company.
And look Jul, I think we sit here a year from now the stocks at 650700 or it's lower than here. In other words, like this is a very like a make or break year. I I'd call it a make or break year and I think it's going to be make relative to auton 30 cities showing the volume production not just delaying it.
I think that's why it's such an important year. Okay. So you mentioned a couple of the goals there like give me the top three things that it needs to do this year to push it higher rather than going. Well, one I mean you need to be in 30 cities. I mean when so when you look at Austin's and now what we're seeing in California and some other cities, you need to be in 30 cities by the robo taxi
with robo taxi. So so that's one. Two, new safety driver. Now you're starting to see that now in Austin. We saw it firsthand. You need to see the geoence area expand to a point where I believe it gets significantly more than where Whimo is, right? You know, relative to even having a huge head start.
And I think the third is volume production. In other words, like you actually need to show volume production of cyber cabs coming out of Gigafactory in Austin. Look, I think those those are the three that are extremely important to show, okay, is the whole story going to take hold this year? No. But it shows that like those are huge building blocks to what I view as kind of the future of Tesla.
And it's interesting that you say that because like Musk has always been good at vision and big pronouncements, but what you're talking about is execution and there his record has been less even or you know or at least less consistent on time, right? He's he's had a lot of delays in the past. So you're confident though that you think he can hit those goals?
Look, it's just like SpaceX. I mean, you're trying to solve the most complex AI, you know, I'd say like some of the biggest problems out there. when you do get to full autonomous you're dealing with the lives you can't just be 99%. I mean, so, so you're talking about the margin of error Y almost can't even, you know, look at in in a spreadsheet.
So, this is something where it's so important that they do this from a safety perspective and continue to stretch it out step by step. But look, I mean, I think autonomous alone is worth a trillion. And I think when you look at robotic, you look at optimist, you look at this all playing out, that's how I get to in a bull case a $3 trillion valuation.
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