저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger—제목·설명란기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 금 투자가 장기적으로 부를 만드는 방식이 아니라고 본다. 통화 관련 자산(채권·예금·현금)은 정부의 행동에 베팅하는 것이며, 역사적으로 대부분의 통화 가치가 하락해 왔다고 주장한다. 금·은처럼 아무것도 생산하지 않는 자산은 다음 사람이 더 비싸게 사줄 것이라는 기대에만 의존하는 '더 큰 바보 이론'적 베팅이라고 설명한다. 케인스의 미인대회 비유를 인용한다. 금 1온스는 과거 20달러에서 현재 1500달러 수준으로 올랐지만, 버핏은 여전히 상승 여지가 있다는 점을 인정하는 맥락으로 말한다. 농장·기업처럼 미래 생산량과 현금흐름으로 가치를 평가하는 자산이 자신들의 선호 대상이라고 밝힌다. 금 생산이 매년 늘어나 이를 흡수할 추가 수요가 필요하다는 점도 지적한다. 비교 수치로 전 세계 금 가치는 약 8조 달러, 미국 농지 전체는 2조 달러 이상, 엑손모빌 10개는 약 4조 달러 수준이라고 언급한다. 금 투자에 대한 결론은 소량 보유는 괜찮을 수 있으나, 장기적으로는 버크셔 해서웨이 같은 생산적 자산이 낫다는 것이다. 이 영상은 2022년 4월 18일 게시본으로, 금·은·통화 관련 발언이 주로 장기 견해이며 대상 종목별 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
this question comes from neil steinhoff who writes the commodity market in particularly gold have appreciated astronomically over the last few years my berkshire hathaway stock is only slightly better or doing better than it was in 2006 it's barely kept up with inflation he says please explain why you have not invested more heavily in commodities as long as ben bernanke continues to print money and there's no indication that he's going to stop anytime soon isn't it isn't it right that commodities and particularly gold will continue to appreciate well i would point out that when we started with berkshire it was about three quarters of an ounce of gold and the old was twenty dollars an ounce then and it was fifteen so gold even at 1500 uh as a ways to go and the i think he's right about inflation but if you think about it there the three major categories of investment and you ought to think very hard about which category you want to be in before you start thinking about the the choices available within that category now the the first category is anything denominated in a currency it can be bonds it can be deposits in a bank it can be a money market fund it can be cash in your pocket and the if you if you will reach in your pocket i don't like to do this but uh and pull out your wallet this is you're watching an historic event uh if you look at this and i might point out this is a one charlie carries uh on the back of it it says in god we trust and that's really false advertising the if elizabeth warren were here she would say quite properly it should say in government we trust because god isn't going to do anything about that dollar bill you know if government does the wrong things uh in terms of keeping it uh as valuable as it was when you parted with it to buy a bond or put it in a bank uh any currency related investment is a bet on how government now and in the future will behave and if you happen to be unfortunate fortunate to live in zimbabwe and they and you decided to make currency related investments uh you know you family would have left you by now and it it was not a good decision almost all currencies have declined in value over time i mean it maybe than built into almost any economic system that it will be easier to work with a value a currency declines in value than a currency that appreciates in value and the japanese might reaffirm that here uh with their experience so as a class currency related investments whether they're in the uk or the united states or anyplace else unless we're getting paid extremely well for having them we do not think make much sense the second category of investments regard items that you buy that don't produce anything but that you hope someone will pay you more for later on and the classic case of that uh is gold and i've used this illustration before but if you take all of the gold in the world don't get too excited now the uh and put it into a cube it will be a cube that's about 67 feet on a side that'd be 165 or hundred seventy thousand metric tons so you could have a cube if you owned all the gold in the world you could have a cube that would be sixty seven or sixty eight feet uh on a side and you could get a ladder and you could climb up on top of it and you could say you know i'm sitting on top of the world and you know and i think you're king of the world you could you know you could fondle it you could polish it you could you could do all these things with it stare at it but it isn't going to do anything now it's all you are doing when you buy that is that you're hoping that somebody else a year from now or five years from now will pay you more to own something that again can't do anything but you're hoping that the person then thinks that somebody else will buy something five years later from him there was you're betting on not just how scared people are now of paper money you're betting on how much they think a year from now people will be scared two years from then on keynes described all of this i think it was in chapter 12 of the general theory when they talked about this famous beauty contest where the game was not to pick out the most beautiful woman among the group but the one that other people would think was the most beautiful woman and then he carried it onto second and third degrees of reasoning anytime you buy an asset that can't do anything produce anything you're simply betting on whether somebody else will pay more for again an asset that can't do anything and and actually we did that with silver but silver had a industrial use and we about 13 years ago i bought a whole lot of silver and if you'll notice silver's moved recently so i you know i my timing was only about 13 years off but you know it was perfect the third category of asset is something that you value based on it's on its what it will produce what it will deliver you buy a farm because you expect a certain amount of corn or soy beans or cotton or whatever it may be to be to come your way every year and you decide how much you pay based on how much you think the asset itself will deliver over time and those are the assets that appeal to me and charlie now there's some logical follow-on to that if you buy that farm and you really think about how many bushels of corn how many bushels of soybeans will produce how much do i have to pay the tenant farmer how much do i have to pay in taxes and so on you can make a rational calculation and the success of that investment will be determined in your own mind by whether it meets your expectations as to what it delivers logically you should not care whether you get a quote on that farm a day later a week later a month later or a year later we feel the same way about businesses when we buy this car or we buy lubrizol or whatever we don't run around getting a quote on it every week and say you know is it up or down or anything like that we look to the business we feel the same way about securities when we buy marketable security we don't care if the stock exchange closes for a few years so when we look at berkshire we are looking at what we think can be delivered from the productive assets that we own and how we can utilize that capital in acquiring more productive assets and there will be times you know cotton doubled in price much to our chagrin at fruit of the loom but you know if you own cotton uh for the right six or eight months in the past year uh you came close to doubling your money but if you won't go back a century and try to make money only cotton over time it has not been a very good investment so to pick a product crude oil cotton gold silver anything that and of course cotton has utility gold really doesn't have utility uh i would i would bet on good producing businesses uh to outperform something that doesn't do anything uh over any period of time but there's no question that rising prices create their own excitement so when people see gold go up a lot i mean if your neighbor owns some gold and you think you're smarter than he is and you didn't own any and your wife says to you know you know how come the jerk next door is making money you know and you're just sitting here uh it it can start affecting behavior and people like to get in on things that have been rising in price and all of that but over time that has not been the way to get rich charlie well i certainly agree with that and besides something peculiar to buy an asset which only will really go up if the world really goes to hell it doesn't strike me as a terribly rational thing to do i think you figure on leaving the country because the country is going to kill you and you assume all the other countries you might go to will also be thoroughly screwed up i think all those people should buy a little gold but i think the rest of us would be better off with berkshire hathaway stock and of course there's another class of people that think that they can protect themselves by painting buying paintings of soup cans i don't recommend that either one thing about gold also is that in addition to this 67-foot cube more gold is being produced every year so you have to have buyers not only to offset sellers in the natural course of events but you have to absorb something like a hundred billion dollars worth of added items of no utility i mean it's really interesting i mean they dig it up out of the ground in south africa and they ship it to the federal reserve in new york they put it back in the ground i mean if you were watching this from mars you know yeah you might think it was a little peculiar but think of how many people it makes happy you know i might mention that the value of that cube all the gold in the world is now about valued at fifteen hundred plus is about eight trillion dollars and there are a billion acres roughly of farmland in the united states that's a little over a million and a half square miles and that's valued at something over two trillion and if you take 10 exxon mobils you get up maybe another 4 trillion and maybe not that much even and so you could own all of the farmland in the united states every bit of it and you could own 10x on mobiles and you get sick a trillion or so in your pocket for walking around money
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