저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Wedbush의 Dan Ives는 기술주 투자 관련해 소비자·e-커머스와 기업(엔터프라이즈) 지출을 구분해 봐야 하며, 엔터프라이즈 지출은 생각보다 견조할 것이라고 주장한다. 클라우드 침투율이 아직 낮아(약 44%) 마이크로소프트·세일즈포스·사이버보안 기업에 긍정적이라 본다. 단기적으로는 경제 악재로 인해 향후 6~12개월간 둔화가 예상되지만, 클라우드와 사이버보안은 실적 하향(8~10%)이 이미 주가에 반영됐다고 판단한다. 서비스나우 사례처럼 환율 악재가 주가에 부담이 될 수 있다는 점은 인정한다. 애플은 아이폰 14 사이클과 교체 수요(2.25억 대 미교체), 서비스 사업 호조로 강세를 이어갈 것으로 본다. 최근 주가 상승(130달러대→150달러대)도 펀더멘털 기반이라고 설명한다. 테슬라는 다음 주 실적 발표를 앞두고 하반기 수요·생산이 핵심이라고 보며, 머스크-트위터 소송은 머스크 평판에 타격이지만 트위터 인수 관련 금전 배상·합의 가능성이 주가에 반영될 수 있다고 본다. 또한 SEC 과징금 관련 질문에는 합의 사안이라 답변을 피했다. 출연자 전망: 기업 지출은 견조, 클라우드·사이버보안 중심 매수 관점, 애플 강세 유지, 테슬라는 실적 확인 필요.
다듬은 글
tech the biggest focus for investors in the weeks ahead earnings season really kicks into high gear joining me now on set right here post 9 dan ives he is wed bush securities managing director of equity resert it's good to have you back great to be here i say back because i want to address something with you first before we get to this whole conversation about tech and that is this fine that you uh recently uh were charged with by the sec for a violation that occurred in your one of your prior jobs synchronous technologies correct you ran ir for a little more than a year as far as i understand it was an accounting infraction can you confirm uh first and foremost the the fine which was said to be in the fifteen thousand to ninety thousand dollar range look i just and i understand why you need to ask and i i i understand the question look i mean this was a in all matter you know from years ago which has been settled and because it's a settlement i can't talk anymore about it but obviously glad to move forward and you know now that now that it's settled wed bush has given us a statement um when this matter came out a few weeks back and said that it would not impact your your employment there but but i'm wondering and and because you you can't address the issue directly because of the settlement whether at the very least it hurts your trust with the public people who are watching you now who had one level of trust for you before and see news like this and wonder whether they should listen to what you have to say today i get look i mean i've for decades i've been covering tech and for with investors around the world that that have known me to navigate tech and you know obviously my reputation has been extremely strong and and that's sort of my view i mean obviously this is a subtle matter you know in terms of me uh moving forward do you think it's a stain on your reputation that you you said was was pretty pristine for a number of years look i just think like i for for decades i've covered tac on wall street and you know and obviously navigated investors through ups and downs and that's sort of been my dna and and obviously this matters settled and and for me i'm just sort of glad to move forward and that's why in terms of tech that that's what investors that's why they go to me and in other words over the years traveling all around the world cover and tech i think i've established an extremely strong reputation and that's where i stand by i appreciate you addressing it and i appreciate the question but not least but more importantly and most of all our viewers let's talk about tech your headline today is that you think enterprise spending is going to hold up better than feared right what makes you so sure well i mean for me it's bifurcated in other words you can't paint tech with the same brush in terms of the consumer and some of the e-commerce names and enterprise if i look in our checks and i look at names like microsoft i look at cyber security names like we've talked about with your pow alto ford net checkpoint among others i believe bart's worse than the byte relative to numbers cut fx as you were talking about with tom that's a big issue in the team no doubt but i think that is already if you look what's baked into our these names i think it's already two to three hundred bits of fx but more importantly fundamentally from a demand perspective i believe what we're seeing on enterprise cloud we're only 44 through on the cloud i look at names like microsoft salesforce and even cloud derivative names across cybersecured like z-scale but why does like uh you know when servicenow came out with with cramer um bill mcdermott and said you can't outrun these currency issues i mean that stock didn't go up uh that would suggest that there's more potential downside if the news gets worse which it in fact might yeah and look given what we see on the economic storm clouds you're clearly going to see a softening as we look down into the next six to 12 months but then it comes down to you campaign them all the same brush now servicenow you know in terms of what mcdermott said i you i'm not necessarily going to say that you're going to see the same things in microsoft salesforce at adobe and others that's why i think you got to look at pockets of spending to get through this storm and i believe cloud and cyber security the reason they've been resilient the last few weeks is i think you're starting to see going into qq earnings i believe a lot of this bad news baked in i think about eight to ten percent numbers cuts already sort of reflected in a lot of these names why is your favorite tech name right now uh apple and i did reference this run that the stock has had from you know a touch below 130 not that long ago to now back 150.
yeah because i look at if i look at the iphone 14 cycle if you look at asia checks demand in terms of what they're forecasting you've really seen no major tick downs i look at yeah you got 225 million iphones that still have not been upgraded in the last three and a half years you got services business that's held in extremely strong and could be on pace to over you know 80 billion in terms of this year so i believe apple the reason apple's held up like rock or gibraltar it's because fundamentally you'll have affects you have supply chain issues and xerocovid but i think a lot of that as we look in september and december i think that's baked in a couple things before i let you go are related to musk okay number one tesla does doesn't it report next week yeah so i want your outlook there but also this whole saga with with twitter is going to play out now in a in a courtroom what's the potential stain on on him on the other side of that and is there any residual on tesla as a result of it sure it's been a black eye for musk i mean let's just call like it is inter it's been a fiasco in terms of the way this has all been handled since april i think part of the problem in terms of tesla you know obviously the zero covet issues that it was a disaster in terms of april and may big focus is going to be what ultimately demand and production looks like second half of the year and i think that's one in terms of evs they've been able to navigate better than really many or others in the industry in terms of the twitter situation we've talked about twitter clearly has upper hand going to court legally speaking i think star to get baked into that stock is either monetary damages settlement or potentially you know ultimately must still have an own twitter and i think that's why that stock continues to move higher
Comments 0