저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 바닥을 형성했고 하반기는 강세가 예상되며, 연준의 긴축 속도가 완화될 여지가 있다. 경제 지표: 소매판매는 둔화를 보이지만 붕괴는 아니며, 미시간대 소비자 기대인플레이션이 하락세로 전환된 점이 시장에 긍정적으로 작용했다. 시장 기대인플레이션: 상품가격(유가는 침공 전 수준, 밀·구리 하락) 하락으로 시장 기반 기대인플레이션이 올해 초보다 낮아졌다. 연준 전망: 연준이 급격한 인상 대신 보다 신중한 속도로 움직일 수 있으며, 이는 금리 경로에 대한 시장의 예측 가능성을 높인다. 과거 사례: 1982년에는 볼커의 정책 전환 3개월 이상 전에 주식시장이 바닥을 쳤기에, 현재도 유사한 패턴일 수 있다고 봤다. 단기 전망: 마크 뉴턴 기술적 분석가는 7월 말까지 전저점 하회 가능성을 봤으나, 톰 리는 이를 하락추세 재개가 아닌 일시적 터치로 보며 단기 예측에는 자신이 없다고 덧붙였다. 금리 인상폭 논쟁: 50bp 대신 75·100bp 인상론이 나오지만, 최종금리(터미널 레이트)가 상향되지 않는다면 주식에 미치는 영향은 제한적이라고 봤다. CPI 리스크: 스티브 리즈먼 등은 나쁜 CPI로 연준 타이밍 재설정이 필요하다고 보며, 9월 추가 강경책 가능성을 제기했다. 반론 대응: 톰 리는 CPI는 후행지표이며, 소비자 체감과 기대인플레이션이 이미 꺾였으므로 연준이 CPI가 2~3%까지 내려오길 기다릴 필요가 없다고 봤다. 리스크: 연준이 예상보다 훨씬 빠르게 긴축을 가속하는 시나리오가 주요 하방 리스크다. 투자 조언: 명시적 매매 추천은 없으며, 주식은 바닥을 다졌다는 입장을 유지.
다듬은 글
let's get right to our talk with the tape today that is today's rally why stocks had such a strong session and what that might mean for where they could go from here a ton of big earnings are coming next week we'll set you up for that too let's ask fun strats tom lee he's with me here at post night it's good to see you on a big day for stocks what was today about why did we rally was was it about a good retail number but not too good yeah i think there's a couple things one is the retail number because it shows that the economy is slowing but not broken i also think this umich survey was a big deal because it's corroborating that not only is gasoline down and the commodities down but now consumer expectations of inflation have rolled over market expectations of inflation have been anchored i think this pushes the fed to be more measured and we heard some of that comment yesterday and finally i i think it's good news that stocks aren't getting obliterated every time we have a bad cpi print make the argument from me if you would tom that this is not a sell the rip market that i shouldn't if i have some positions that i still want to get out of that i shouldn't take advantage of a day like this and do just that i think the majority of people want to sell this rip the reason i would say it's different is unlike every pretext for the past few months where commodity prices were soaring and consumer inflation expectations were soaring and market-based inflation expect interest rates are rising and even fed funds hikes were rising a lot of these are stabilizing and rolling over which means this is putting the fed in a position to go from being expeditious you know chasing hikes to be more measured that's a huge deal for markets because now it gives markets a path to sort of see where rates will be and keep in mind in 1882 the stock market bottomed more than three months before volcker sort of abandoned his vulcar moment policy so i think that's why stocks are in a different place now than they were a month ago and i actually think that's why second half could be quite strong but even your own technician mark newton was suggesting just days ago literally that a new low was coming and maybe the second half was going to be good but not until you hit a new low in stocks you sound like you're telling a little bit of a different story here uh yes and you know one thing that mark and mark's been very consistent about expecting a low a lower low into the end of this month into july is that that's going to be a touch that he thinks that we might momentarily peak below the prior lows but he's buying that because it's not the start of a new downtrend and i mean to me that's the message i i don't think we're talking about accelerating downside i mean we've had earnings misses and companies aren't falling i think that that the upside risk is much greater now than the downside but do you do you agree with him that we're going to put a new low in you you painted a picture at the beginning of our interview here that suggested otherwise uh you know i'm not great short term so if mark that's mark's belief i would defer to him but do i think stocks have a a lot of negative shock still in it it would have to be the belief that the fed suddenly feels urgency to go much faster that doesn't seem to be priced into fixed income at all so i i'm in the camp that stocks have bottomed what about this idea of 100 basis points right it was sort of bostick kind of got everybody all worked up even though he's not a voting member with his everything is on the table commentary from a day or so ago waller came out and talked everybody off a cliff however sock gen rbc city nomura piper sandler everybody's talking about 100 now yeah i think what's interesting is there's talk about 100 but it's not raising the terminal rate so people are just talking about putting more under 25 into july but it's not raising where the fed sort of peaks and i think that's more important if if the terminal rate isn't rising then 100 or 75 isn't really changing what it means for equity prices but the cpi was bad and the suggestion was from people like steve leesman for example that you need to reset the clock last cpi was bad this cpi was bad at a time where we had hoped for some moderation if that does anything it forces you to reset the clock about when the fed may be a little easier than they are now so what happens to your thesis about a strong second half if they have to go stronger in september because inflation is still red-hot yeah i steve makes a great point because the fed needs to see consistent uh a consistent and meaningful move down in inflation but we also have to remember cpi is the last thing to capture that because commodities are already rolling oil is back to pre-invasion levels i mean wheat and copper are lower the markets based inflation expectations are actually lower than they were any time that they started this year and now consumer confidence inflation expectations are rolling over these consumers are already experiencing the rent and the things that are making cpi hot yet their inflation expectations are coming down so i would say if you see all the soft data pointing to a downturn the fed doesn't have to wait for cpi to get to two or three before they realize momentum has already shifted inflation so i i would say i i'm in the camp that the fed has more room because the market's done so much work for them
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