저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Yardeni는 강세장 기조를 유지한다고 밝힘. 연초 7000 전망→3~4월 6000·6400→현재 6500 수준으로 목표를 바꿨고, 4월 8일을 조정 저점으로 보며 올해 말 이후까지 상승 흐름을 예상. 경제지표(소매판매·신규실업수당·설비투자)는 견조하다고 평가. 채권시장이 금리 급등 시 주식이 흔들리며 정책을 바꾸게 만든다고 진단, 재정적자 우려에 대해서는 채권시장이 걱정할 때 본인도 걱정하겠다는 입장. 관세 관련 변동성은 크지만 장기 낙관 유지.
다듬은 글
Join us, Ed Yardini, President of Yardini Research. Ed, welcome. Actually, I have already raised this issue. I was going to save it for you because I was thinking of you when I was thinking about it, and it might be better to be a technician. And if you just look at the hellish stuff and ignore everything else, does it work?
And sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but you were hit with a swing. You were hit with swings all over the place, depending on what the tariffs are... comments of the day. Where are you now? I mean, you said 6,000. We're... We're about 6,000. After this morning, we'll be at 5,900. Actually, you're right, because you missed one of my swings.
I went back to 6500 a couple of weeks ago when I might have seen it . It's hard to remember all this, isn't it? Joe, I've warned my clients that I reserve the right to change my mind as often as the President. But I didn't actually do that. I started the year very bullish at 7000, then down to 6000 and 6400 in early March, and now back to 6500.
So yes, I do need a neck brace because of the volatility we're seeing out of Washington. But overall I remain optimistic. I think it's a bull market. I think we had a correction. I think we hit the correction low on April 8th, and I think we'll be moving higher for the rest of the decade. So my basic optimism remains unchanged.
Yes. I think you are like the popular type of cars that are sold now. You are a hybrid. I think a good market forecaster uses both technical and fundamental analysis. In my opinion, there is no other way. You need to choose the best tools that work for you. I think technical analysis is suitable for day traders, especially with this kind of volatility.
Day traders love this kind of volatility. You're bullish, Ed, regardless of momentum-based fundamentals, right? From what I can tell, or based on the fact that we are in a bull market, it will likely be resilient to many factors, which it often is. It doesn't matter what the government, the president or anyone else does.
Bull markets just happen. Yes, one of the things I've learned over the years is how well the economy and the stock market are doing despite Washington. And I think you're right. In some ways, we've spent too much time and attention on what's going on in Washington and ignored the fact that we, the ordinary working people, are doing everything we can to improve the lives of ourselves, our families, our communities, our businesses, and it's working.
I think that it is precisely the resilience of the economy that is very clearly evident here. If you're looking for stability, I think it actually shows up in the economic data . Weekly retail sales figures look good. Initial jobless claims look good. The capital expenditure outlook still looks quite good.
Of course, there is uncertainty. On the other hand, the president is right in pointing out that a lot of money is being invested in moving production to the United States. Therefore, in the long term, it is better to focus on fundamental indicators, and in the short term, on technical ones. And also, explain the situation on the bond market.
Profitability fell again today. This is partly because bond yields in Japan have fallen. The Bank of Japan may be considering cutting back on long-term bond issuance to cover some of its budget expenditures. Yes, that is true. But this is quite important . Every time the bond market reacts and yields rise sharply, the stock market falls.
Yes, I think this is a very important connection. We see the bond market and the stock market acting as gatekeepers to what's going on in Washington. As we all know, the president switched from discussing mutual tariffs on April 2, Liberation Day, and then changed his position on April 9 because the yield on 10-year bonds rose from 4% to 4.5% on April 8.
This caught his attention and made him realize that he had to deal with another group of voters who vote regularly - the bond market and the stock market. And these two markets work in tandem. You know, the "defenders" of the stock and bond markets reacted quite similarly. They are now reducing their activity because they see light at the end of the tunnel in this trade war, and I think the stock market, already looking to the future, to 2026, understands that this too shall pass, and these are good times, and things will only get better.
On Friday we moved to the next stage: escalation on April 2, de-escalation on April 9. Back to some escalation on Friday, de-escalation, so I don't know what direction we're in now. But as for the " defenders", how do you assess this bill? And I don't know if the budget reconciliation bill will actually make that much of a difference in the long run, but do you see it as cutting $1.6 trillion in spending that wouldn't have happened, or do you see it as another bill that could significantly reduce the deficit?
Which of these is true? Well, from what I've seen, it looks like it will increase the deficit rather than reduce it. My understanding is that the Congressional Budget Office says that under current law, we'll have an additional $20 trillion in national debt. These "avengers" are quite weak. The Avengers are pretty...
well, they're like St. Augustine when it comes to bonds. It's like they make me chase after them . But they still say, “Yes, we will need to do this someday, but not today.” Yes, that's true. And you know, my position is this: I will worry about the deficit and the debt when the bond market worries about it .
Every now and then the bond market seems to get worried about this. This was the case in 2023, when bond yields rose from 4% to 5% in a matter of months. We had that same case with basis trades on April 8th, and it appears to have been a problem created by the " bond vigilante ." But the " bond watchdogs" aren't the only players in this game.
On November 1, 2023, the Treasury Department demonstrated that if " bond watchdogs " don't like the bonds and notes the Treasury Department issues, it can simply issue more notes, and that's what drove bond yields down in 2023. And the bond market has a good memory and understands that it is playing against a very strong player—the Treasury Department, as well as the Federal Reserve System.
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