저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
관세(10%·중국 30%)는 시장이 감내 가능하다고 보며 주가 강세가 이를 반영. AI 생산성 향상으로 미국 성장률이 기존 1.8~2%에서 3% 이상 가능, 이는 재정적자 해소에도 도움. 인플레이션 우려 시 채권보다 분산된 주식(국제 포함)이 실질 자산으로 낫다고 주장. 밸류에이션(PER 15 vs 23·22)이 매력적. 정부 지출 삭감(DOGE)은 수천억 달러 비효율 제거 가능성으로 긍정적 평가. 연준 정책은 현 상태 유지 기조가 지속될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
I want to get to the markets. Joining us right now, Jeremy Seagull. He's a arden School of Business, chief economist at Wisdom Tree. Good morning to you. Uh the markets uh looking up today. Uh we've had a whole bunch of down days, up days. It's it's been a bit of a wild ride. The question is whether we're all supposed to be super optimistic or super pessimistic given where things stand.
And then you throw this budget issue and the and the bond uh vigilantes out there and how do you overlay that? Yeah, Andrew. And you know, one of the oldest expressions on Wall Street is don't fight the tape. Uh you know, I'm I'm looking at that tape and I I said so over a week ago on on your program that I saw strength that you would not expect given, you know, everything that's being thrown at the market.
So, the market is is seeing something. And what I've concluded it's saying is first of all that they're saying that tariffs are going to be or hopefully are going to be no worse than 10 across the board and 30 with China that and they feel they can deal with that. That's why that shock last week kind of temporarily shocked the market but again put back.
So 10 and 30 I think they say we can we can deal with that. Not that it's a good thing, right? You know, I say if there weren't all that, we would be at all-time highs now. But they're looking beyond that. And I think they're really looking again at the potential of AI improving productivity. You know, your predecessor program before Squawkbox, the worldwide exchange, uh had a report uh on the banking industry and the adoption of AI.
And one bank said, you know, it it c could replace up to 50% of its workforce uh by uh you know uh using AI uh in their productivity plans. I mean the this is huge. Uh and you know the all the 1.8 2% projections that the CBO that the Fed has as long-term growth, they they've never changed. Like AI just doesn't exist.
But AI could make that 3% or more. I think that's what the market is telling us. And therefore, not only, you know, can we deal with the tariffs, but by the way, 3% real growth that deals with the budget deficit. Um, and both of those factors. Now, it's not a slam dunk, but I'm seeing what I think is the way the market could have so much strength despite the, you know, so-called negatives that are hitting it from all ends.
So, if I if I handed you $10,000, $100,000, $1,000 today, what would you do with it? Oh, I'd put in equities. You know, I don't think just put It's hard to say because you know uh it's not necessarily just because AI is going to boom that the AI providers uh that we all think of as mag 7 are necessarily going to be the best.
Here we have the financials, the users of the AI might actually get more productivity while the producers of the AI more competition. Doesn't mean they won't thrive. Doesn't mean everyone won't thrive, but uh equities by the way are the way to go. And and by the way, if you do worry about the deficit and potential inflation, which is what excessive deficits produce, you want to hold real assets.
And stocks are real assets. And proof is in the pudding. In the long run, stocks overcome inflation. They give you an afterinflation rate of return. And um so you know any any investor looking now and saying worry about inflation, you know, I I I don't think bonds are the answer. I still think diversified equities and international um certainly I mean how well it's done recently and with price earnings ratios of 15 instead of 23 and 22 um make them very very attractive.
So you would buy equities but you would buy it sounds like you just buy AI companies or would you be buying again I say because the AI users might actually gain more u I think AI will spur it but that doesn't necessarily mean they're they're going to be the gainers I mean they like if we think about 25 years ago in the internet you know they it was an internet boom and all the providers and and and you know uh uh all those that were providing the fiber optics they all collapsed as they figured out how to produce the uh the the signaling for internet without going through the cost.
So it's not necessarily the providers. Um uh it it could be the users. And in terms of of looking at the users and looking at valuations, I think finally international diversification has come into play and will be uh something that will uh as it had during you know most of the post-war period been a great diversifier for your portfolios but certainly has has you know not lived up to its promise uh until this year.
I mean Jeremy some there were some things aligning uh before before tariffs and people said that you know got to be great with the deregulation and maybe we try to rein in a little bit govern of government spending and we do hear some anecdotally some crazy stuff uh that money was was being spent on that that would be good.
Yes. If you take any any cutting in the butt. Listen, any you know nonprofit and I and I listen I'm including universities along with the government uh you know if you're if you're not pushed to to uh you know realize efficiencies. You're going to overhire be inefficient have programs that go on forever.
Um and uh you need you need a shakeup. Again, not saying that that Musk and Trump did the shake up in in in the very best way, but you know, certainly there there are going to be some hundreds of billions of dollars of unnecessary spending that's that's going to be you know, mag seven and and valuations entering the year or so high and and whether it was a healthy correction or a tariff correction, whatever you want to call it, it did correct in bull markets.
It did correct. it got within this much of a of a bare market did didn't quite make it um and then has shown strength that I think says you know 10 and 30 we can live with that and we're looking beyond to a a very bright future here uh for the United States I just want to know what you think the equity markets know that maybe the bond markets don't because usually it's the opposite way around well the bond markets know look at oh you know that big scare last Wednesday how you know what it took 24 hours for that to disappear now they're you again below 450.
I think there is debt capacity. You know, by the way, when we take a look at this whole debt, there's nothing surprising about this stuff. I mean, you sure there's a little, you know, bangles that have added about, you know, tips and and over, but those are small potatoes. I mean, everything else really, I mean, once he got elected and took the House and Senate and pretty much got what he did.
I mean, so far I as I understand, one thing he didn't get uh was that 15% corporate tax if you to produce domestically. I I I don't believe that that is in the bill. Uh also, by the way, as far as the Fed, I I thought it was interesting you reported on Cash Gary, who's supposed to be a the the leading u what um uh follower to Jay Powell at the Fed.
Um his words could be exactly J. Powell's words. everything he said the uncertainty you know what's happening so stay the stance so it's sort of interesting you know like even cash carry if he gets nominated elected next year is not taking any different position on the Fed than than Powell is right
Comments 0