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about the tech trade it has been The Runaway winner of the first six months of 23. let's ask Dan Ives he joins us here on set at post nights good to see you great to be here so you had a note today 12 to 15 percent more for Tech that's what you see in the second half I mean we believe this is the start of a new bull market for Tech and I think ultimately it's going to be broader it's not just that you know called seven or eight big tech stocks We Believe fundamentals are not just stabilizing but actually starting to see for the first time upticks across Cloud across Enterprise and then of course you have these AI Gold Rush which I view as the fourth Industrial Revolution would you would you be willing to admit that the gains we've seen from the beginning of the year to now were multiple expansion was based on fundamentals right I think the first half is multiple expansion okay I think the second half is real starting with earnings you know over the next month is going to be fundamentals I think this is really where a lot of these companies they rip the Band-Aid off and we're seeing really across the board especially over the last four to six weeks a much more dramatically different I.T spending environment than we saw going back to February March even April So when you say rip the Band-Aid off you're talking about these companies that were really I guess at the Forefront of becoming leaner and in some cases meaner and they went through these rounds of layoffs first and they're emerging on the other side first is that what you're alluding to yeah I mean six to ten percent Cuts I think in some cases even more and now you're actually starting to see you're going to see those margins I think creep higher and higher as we go in the second half and when you look at software you look at ships in terms of what's happened with the inventory I get to travel in the globe the last month what we've seen right now across Enterprise is something I think this is going to put more fuel in the rally across the board as we go into this July in Two Cure earnings I mean even those who are bullish on Tech look at the way that multiples have expanded and it makes them a little queasy I want to show you where the forward pe's have gone for these stocks okay Apple the stock you love more than any other from 20 to 30 times forward from the beginning of the year until now okay Microsoft from 23 to 33 alphabet 17 to 23 Nvidia 34-56 Amazon 46 to 89.
those all make sense to you if you in my opinion I didn't even get to Tesla by the way which we're going to do later on in the program sure I I think this is a 1995 movement not in 1999 bubble I believe this is in terms of a revolution and we're seeing similar in terms of the internet this is something that's really going to transform Tech and I think in terms of those multiples in terms of I think what's not really being factored in this is potentially a trillion dollars of incremental I.T spend that basically was not here six months ago and that's why what you're seeing in Redmond with Nadella where obviously what we've seen with Jensen and Nvidia I think that's just the first start now of the second third fourth derivative players with this AI Gold Rush playing out can it be both I mean can it be 95 and still a bubble in this stage it doesn't have to be the be all end-all bubble like we saw in 2000 but what if whatever we agree okay this is 95 not 99 this is the you know early it's a nascent feeling stages of this AI Gold Rush as you put it but these stocks have run a lot in an environment that's highly uncertain yeah why is it Justified well in my opinion because really what you're seeing first of all these are fun the men in terms of these companies they have fortresses in terms of balance sheets so you look in just a much healthier Enterprise environment from a balancing perspective and I think really it started off narrow but this is something that's going to transform Tech I think from a software perspective from a chip perspective you look at numbers I believe the streets we go into 2024 could potentially be underestimating growth by 10 15 20 percent and I think that's really where the rubber meets the road in terms of as this all starts to play out and that's why I think the guidance heard around the world the Nvidia four billion dollar rate sure but not every company on this list is NVIDIA with the kind of guidance that they gave are you expecting similar type guidance from other names on this list I believe this quarter for the first time where you're going to hear from Redmond what you'll see from Google I think what we started to see you're going to now start to see the signs of what ultimately is going to be just a massive expansion of growth that's coming in that's why I believe multiple expansion was a story first six months second six months is not just talking the talk it's walking the walk yeah but doesn't a potential recession or even further economic slowdown hurt potential Enterprise spend on some of these things that are enabling these AI related stocks to you know soar video is not giving away its chips for free no doubt but I do believe what started happen is it's this different I.T spending environment that we've seen the last four to six weeks then really for the first four months of the year and I think that's all going to start to play through and I still think many investors are expecting whether you know the the next shooter drop numbers are going to come down but ultimately I think in terms of tech that Band-Aid was ripped off these numbers start to come up and I can tell you why am I an Institutional Investor conversations many still in the sidelines and I believe after this earnings season it's really going to cause what I view is really a tidal wave of growth coming through
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