저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 투자의 핵심은 감정이 아니라 규칙을 지키는 것이며, 탐욕(돼지 규칙)을 경계하고 이익은 실현하라는 메시지. [핵심 원칙 1: 강세·약세는 돈을 벌지만 돼지는 도살된다] 강한 상승장에서 도취되면 탐욕에 빠지기 쉬우니 그때가 규율을 떠올려야 할 시점이라고 강조. 2020년 3월~2021년 11월 나스닥이 두 배 이상 오른 뒤 이익을 실현하지 않으면 큰 하락에 모두 반납하게 된다고 경고. 2000년 닷컴 붕괴, 2008~2009 금융위기, 2022년 하락 사례를 들어 과도한 공매도 등 한쪽으로 베팅하는 것도 위험하다고 지적. [핵심 원칙 2: 세금 내는 것을 두려워하지 말라] 양도소득세는 일반소득보다 낮은 편이며, 세금 회피 때문에 이익을 실현하지 않다가 손실을 본 사례가 많다고 설명. 메이시스(Macy's) 사례를 들어 부동산 가치만 보고 보유하다가 주가가 반토막 난 경우를 제시. 종이상의 이익은 실제 이익이 아니라고 강조. [시청자 질의 응답] 손실 종목 재평가는 주 1회 정도만 보고, 분기 실적 발표 등 결정적 변화가 있을 때 판단하라고 조언. 퇴직연금은 S&P500 인덱스 펀드 같은 분산투자가 적절하다고 답변. [종목·자산 관련 전망] 본 영상에서 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음. 아마존(Amazon)은 과거 사례로 언급되었을 뿐 향후 전망 발언은 없음. [리스크·조건] 규율을 지키지 않는 예외는 위험하며, 큰 상승 뒤에는 차익실현이 필요하다는 조건부 조언. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 주식시장은 우상향해 왔으나 단기 급락은 불가피하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
other people are but to put it all in context am constantly on this show telling you that discipline always trumps conviction I tell it you over and over and over again in other words no matter how much you may love a stock no matter how enthralled you are with the underlying story if the rules say sell sell you sell it one thing I've learned from my investing career no matter how much you might believe in something you violate the rules of the road at your own peril that's why we obey them religiously with the channel trust and they become our core guide for this CNBC investing club which I want you to be in but where the heck do these rules Come From it's not like they were handed down for more on high and carved into stone towns hey they're not the lowest five commanders for the history of the World Part One they're not like the laws of physics you can't just deduce them from observing the way Marcus uh works that you can you can do say uh gravity no the rules Come From my experience that's right from my experience I spent over 40 years in this business and in that time you better believe I've learned some powerful lessons in many cases I did I did have to learn them the hard way and because I don't want you to repeat my mistakes because I want you to have the benefit of my whole career tonight I'm going to lay out some of the most important rules for investing and they are indeed Timeless some of this stuff may seem basic but again you forget the rules of your own Peril back on my old hedge fund I occasionally convince myself that it was okay to make an exception to have a cheat day so to speak to ignore my discipline just this once for some reason it seemed compelling at the time and whenever I broke my own rules I almost always got burned it's like that old joke about the doctor the guy who goes to the doctor and he says dog listen to me it hurts when I stretch out and shake my hand around towards the dark bars don't do that anymore so so what exactly should you be doing or not doing is the case may be all right let's take down my most important rules for investing we're going to start with the first one which is Bulls make money Bears make money pigs well they get slaughtered look I say this all the time because that's because so often in my business I've seen moments where stocks went up and up and up so much that people were intoxicated with their Gates don't know Jesus however it's precisely at that point of intoxication that you need to remind yourself that you don't want to act like a pig I first heard this phrase in the old trading desk a legendary steinup Partners an amazing old hedge fund I've been having a big run some stock and the brilliant Michael start would tell me that I've made a lot of money perhaps too much money and maybe I was being a pig I didn't know they was talking about how do you make too much money I was just grateful I quite a major gain of course not that long ago not that long after we got a vicious sell-off and I gave back everything I made and then some and that's when I enshrined the Bulls make money Bears make money pigs get slaughtered thesis as one of my own rules and it's now so deeply ingrained that I got a barnyard full of sound effect buttons to tell the whole story The Bull the bear the pig and of course just to be clear Bulls don't have Monopoly piggishness the same idea applies to investors who press their bets too shortly too aggressively on the short side we've had some major declines over the years but other than the.com bus in 2000 then the financial question 2008-2009 most stocks bounce back pretty darn quickly even in the FED induced meltdown the star at the end of 2021 you had to turn positive by the fall of 2022 because if you push your luck by staying short too long you got sent to the slaughterhouse so the question is how do you know when you yourself are being a pig look a Leslie there's no such thing as stupid questions only stupid answers but honestly you really don't need me to tell when you're being a pig the NASDAQ more than doubled from March of 2020 to November of 2021.
if you didn't feel greedy up there you didn't need an investment advice you need you need a psychiatrist if you took profits you sidestep the huge decline if you let your winners ride well you gave a lot if not all the money back financial crisis was even more Stark if you were walking around owning a huge amount of stock in 2008 as the bank started dropping like flies what you were Beyond piggish why is this world so important simple one of my cheap goals is to help you stay in the game yeah that's the hardest part of investing is holding on through the difficult periods taking short-term pain so you can have long-term gains which is what's happened to stock market for for a century the people got wiped out in 2022 where the.com collapse before they tended to be the ones who never took anything off the table they never felt greedy and their biggestness well they never felt it and so they got slaughtered being cautious and ringing the register you're the top ended up keeping those room notice I said near because well catching the old bit top is just so impossible just catching you the top that's great that's why I remind people every day have you taken any profits have you booked anything or are you being a pig because you never know when the stocks you own are going to crash you never know when the market could be wiped out you you can't have certainty stock market doesn't let you have certainty if you assume stocks will keep going up forever in a straight line well you are in for the House of Payne everyone would own stocks if that were the case and we know they don't because it's so risky sure there'll be times when stocks just going gobbed and up and up they just keep going when I coined the term fang over a decade ago for Facebook which became meta platforms Amazon Netflix and Google which came out of it I love them all but I did give up on Amazon after an incredible run I was trying to be disciplined yet it did continue to move up another 50 percent I did feel felt like a pig after the Stock's extremely popular run but when I felt like oh felt like a fool after it kept Gallop you've had to feel you know what it's just the price you have to pay for following the rules I had been a pig but the pig kept running it didn't get slaughtered unfortunately we got back in Amazon for the travel trust when then president Trump kept bashing it for ripping off the post office remember that probably even don't but it was torture to watch it go up without me and it was terrific to get back in now you need to recognize though that for every huge pile of cash that gets left on the table in a situation like Amazon you're sidestepping gigantic losses that the kind of which you would have I would have had if you had left everyone on the table in 2000 2008 or late 2021 experiences the term two generations of investors against stocks and hopefully I'm trying to preserve the last one so uh never forget Bulls make money Paris pink bunny the pigs no pigs yeah you get it and I'm gonna keep repeating that forever I'm going to give you use the sound effects because they just test that important how about rule number two this is one that people I see them on the street almost everyone says this to me when I ask them if they've taken made some sales I I rule number two is it's okay to pay the taxes look no one ever likes paying taxes I don't you don't but like death taxes are inevitable and unavoidable yet the aversion of paying taxes on stock market winning so often borders want the pathological so many times people have gigantic gains but they simply refuse to take any profits because they don't want to incur taxes they cut into their winnings never mind the capital gains rates are pretty darn low versus ordinary income wall Street's Litter with the broken hearts of investors who made this mistake several years ago for example I went to a presentation from a prominent hedge fund manager who recommended buying Macy's because of its Real Estate Value the stock could already run a great deal before the presentation and it was ripe for some profitating regardless but I know people who'd own it for years with Hefty profits and they did want to bring the register because they would have to write a check to Uncle Sam and of course they were thinking about how much that real estate was worth next you know Macy saw its stock get cut in half and it wasn't a two-for-one split the whole shopping mall space it hit a Tipping Point courtesy of competition from the Amazon and the darn thing got a Blu-ray those who didn't want to share the profits with the IRS ended up with no profits at all instead of hoping a stock could go to 100 because it might have a lot of real estate so I want you to make your piece with the taxman some gains are simply unsustainable a profit on paper is not the same as a profit in your bank account gains can be ephemeral you haven't made any money until you ring the register the last you need is to we worry about capital gains tax and taxes when it's time to sell sell in Short Stop fearing the tax man stop fearing the lost man you won't regret it the bottom line remember my first two rules Bulls make money Bears make money but pigs get slaughtered don't be greedy be disciplined and don't be afraid to pay the tax man on profits that you've earned let's go to uh Tyler in the California Tyler hey big Louie I'm from California how you doing Jim I am doing well how about you I am doing good thank you sir I I don't know how many times that I've sold a position in the next day or two watched it reverse so I'd like to know is when is a good time to just reevaluate and cut my losses okay I think that this is a terrific question and don't feel bad because it's I obsess on the losses I for the travel trust and I know and I bothered Jeff Mark's endlessly I were down this we're down there we got no it what you do is try to look at it once a week okay just once because I don't want you to get down you're going to miss other opportunities and what you're looking for is a change at the margin it's something said on the quarter on the quarterly conf school it's you don't want to just get up in the morning and say you know what I don't like the way that acts I'm taking the loss wait for something definitive and if there is a bump up don't be afraid to turn the position no matter what how about Robert Minnesota Robert hey Jim thanks for taking the call my pleasure um yeah when I retired my company let me keep my 401 which is in a Time dated fund um at the corporate rate which is very cheap but it has limited choices my question is should I switch it over to a manage fund with another company like Fidelity or Etc at a higher standard rate about has more options uh look I'm a big favor of the S P 500 is an index fund I think that'll be terrific that's what my retirement's in that's what your retirement should be in I think that'll be fine I love diversification remember my first two Rules full spank money fairs make money but pigs they get slaughtered don't be greedy be disciplined and don't be afraid to pay the taxpayment on profits you've earned we love taking profits coming up from portfolio maintenance to learning how to do your homework I'm hitting my investing rules that I think are the key to mastering this Market you don't want to miss them
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