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things are gonna be worse now than they were back then but the market's holding up better does that make any sense at all to you the answer is yes it does is to use the rally to lighten up on risk because i think that's just too much of a probability of a policy mistake welcome back to wealthy value the us government has pushed a total of nine trillion dollars into the economy since the start of the pandemic with tax dollars so desperately needed the irs is looking to crack down on cryptocurrency but what if you could trade crypto tax free here's how to do it in 60 seconds step 1 open a crypto ira account with our friends at itrust capital the world's largest crypto ira platform with over 3.5 billion dollars in transactions over 1500 positive reviews on trustpilot and no monthly fees step 2 you can transfer your existing ira roll over your employer plan or make a cash contribution through ach transfer bank wire or check step three start investing available assets include not just bitcoin and ethereum but also cardano chainlink polkadot and all major cryptocurrencies as well as physical gold and silver no taxable events mean no complex tracking needed and security is the best in the industry all digital assets are held in offline cold storage with the leading institutional custodians curve and coinbase custody which are both insured and backed by the largest venture capital firms in crypto use our link i trust dot capital forward slash value in the description below and get 100 in bitcoin when you open and fund your account there really isn't much quote-unquote bad news that hasn't been priced in the the thing that i've learned over the last few years is that markets don't actually care what the news is they they can process good news and bad news equally well what they despise is the uncertainty of what the news could be and so this week was really important because we had two huge buckets of uncertainty taken out of the market so the one we've already talked about which is when when the market saw that there was a surface area of a deal between ukraine and russia that was really constructive because neither side would have signaled something if both parties were very far apart so that that meant to the markets were a few weeks out from something getting done and then the second thing was jerome powell and the federal reserve they finally had their meeting they raised rates 25 basis points but even more importantly they gave you a very prescriptive forecast of what the next year will look like at a minimum and possibly even two years and once you could have that you were able to then go and redo all of your expectations and what people realized was okay you know inflation may uh actually start to get tamed in the back half of the year the economy is still quite strong and we could actually support two two and a half percent interest rates and still actually grow really well and so what you've seen in the last three or four days is a reaction to the loss of uncertainty and so there really isn't you know uh the only thing to fly in the ointment could be if the war all of a sudden escalates not that it gets dragged on because at that point that's also i think been priced in but if something very meaningfully different and some and and russia in this case ratchets up the intensity um but in the absence of these things you basically have really constructive dynamics right now for at least the next month and a half maybe even two months what it actually helps you do is pick out better signal and you know with all respect sex i think like a lot of what you said is not really a as meaningful signal as the following which is the most important thing that happened was both sides basically said the surface area of a deal was very much in sight and that they were down to three or four points and i think that that didn't get reported nearly as much as it probably should have and what i thought was psychologically interesting was that as soon as that was said the next few days was when the rhetoric got ratcheted up extremely aggressively on both sides and the way that i interpret that typically is having done deals that's typically when you're closest to a deal and you're trying to get the last few t's in c's and in that same construct as applied to ukraine and russia i suspect what's happening is they both put out the trial balloon it was well received on both sides the surface area is now down to a few points i'm not saying that those are justifiable in the end but i think that if both of these two folk parties want to come to a ceasefire which i think it does we're probably much much closer than anybody thinks and right now all of this rhetoric is meant to basically try to get the other side to budge a little bit more and so i suspect and you know i could be completely wrong um is that we're much closer to a ceasefire than anybody thinks and i suspect that you could see something in the next two to three weeks the thing is we we have we can't even estimate correctly so for example there was something that said there was a hundred out of a hundred russia has 170 battalions apparently i don't know if that's true or not right of which 100 were sent in we don't know if that's true or not of which you crane apparently destroyed 50 of which we don't know if that's true or not so we're left to guess and unfortunately what that does is that people psychologically then fit as david has used in the past year priors what are your biases right what narrative fallacy do you want to believe and then you're going to fit so the pro-russian factions will say that's entirely not true the pro-ukrainian factions will say actually it's even greater than that huge sustained military losses the truth is somewhere in the middle that will only get accounted for after a ceasefire is in place so i think we almost need to again we can get caught in this fog of war and and talk about this stuff in ways which we don't accurately know or we can level up and say the thing that we both know is there was on the record statements by the foreign minister of russia and the president of ukraine that a cease fire and the surface area of that ceasefire is within sight and unless something is materially changed and in the last three days which it hasn't it means we are really really close to this being done retail is not a very good signal of anything in fact um if you actually look at retail flows typically you will make money by doing the exact opposite of what retail does and i posted this in the group chat to you guys you know every single day of since the beginning of this year retail was a net buyer in all of those days the market got punched in the face finally at the beginning of march retail capitulated right and i posted that same day and i said guys this is the moment to buy and it lo and behold what happened the markets rallied meaningfully from that point and the reason is because they were going into the end of q1 you have a huge tax bill due in april 15th people were starting to just finally give up they were buying every single day and they finally gave up but that capitulation was the moment that you buy so if anything retail is is is the you know you know i've said before you fade your faith list you know retail flows are something you typically will make money by fading by doing the exact opposite of whatever retail is doing we're finding out all of these externalities that was made with underlying poor scientific reasoning that has caused these issues to be exacerbated so we know for example that our over reliance on russian hydrocarbons could have been mitigated with nuclear but we fell for shoddy science and we fell for uh a bunch of uninformed people who ran this banner of like environmental protection right so they screwed us okay and those people now have meaningfully less credibility let me give you another cohort freebergen you tell me all the people that pushed back on gmo and said gmo was unacceptable it could never happen it has to be x y and z way and there are ways where we could have been working on plants that had different mechanisms of action in order to actually absorb and retain nutrients from the soil in different ways that would have made us less reliant in exactly the way in which fertilizer works true or false i think we suffer from a very insidious kind of plague in the world which is the plague of over-educated dumb people and it's it's almost as if you know because of their degree in the school you give them inordinate power to make value judgments right that really put the world in a very difficult position and so when you have something like a war in ukraine it just lays everything bare you find all these things like you know another another version of this example how did an entire continent and specifically i mean europe abdicate their entire energy security to the group of it to a group of environmentalists and to you know to a 16 year old girl without even thinking about what the right answer was for themselves from first principles that's really crazy that that happened and you need a war you know where tens of thousands of people have to die to realize that that was a really bad set of decisions that have been compounding for decades here's another example where food security is yet another one where you know we weren't able to think cleanly from first principles and so depending on who had more money or who was able to create more psychological guilt or fear was able to get an outcome that fundamentally puts the world at 100 million person plus famine the foreign policy playbook is going to get fundamentally rewritten after this russia-ukraine war in large part because of the effectiveness of government sanctions plus corporate social responsibility whatever you want to call that but the combination of these two things has proved to be incredibly effective at setting the stage for some sort of compromise or regime change the spectrum of outcomes is there but the point is that's an incredibly unique set of circumstances where before we never would have thought an economy that large or a country that important on the world stage would ever have compromised in the absence of military intervention and i think that that's important to think about as we think about what our forward going china policy looks like i think really like the the importance of like the oecd right the importance of all these organized nations that consume from china uh becoming more organized now probably makes more sense i said this before in a tweet but the importance of the us dollar has become completely primary which has been an incredible benefit you know benefit of what has happened because of this war you know very small silver linings in the grand scheme of all this humanitarian crisis but those are going to be really important things that the united states can seize on so you
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