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according to Jeffrey Grantham the US is shockingly overpriced not moderately overpriced I believe they'll do well by selling whatever they do get rid of the terrible lust to participate in profit making that arises at the end of every major bubble it's very seductive and hard to resist I was there a few decades ago made a fortune and wied out very well I would wish on most of you that you avoid it because it takes all the boxes and has completed all the usual AC of a Super Bubble and maybe a month ago it requires a long bull market minus 11 years is the longest in history a lot of crazy behavior and we experienced some of the greatest crazy behavior ever I believe I'll be sharing these stories in 20 years at the end of a bumble it needs to accelerate at a rate that's roughly three times the average rate of the bull market and it did that from then on out the NASDAQ more than doubled and increased at a rate that was well over three times the average rate lastly a feature that is specific to the super bubbles two or three that just keep going is that at the end even on Market upswings speculative stocks begin to sell off and that began early last year when the very best of them all began to decline one by one they fell in and began to decline and as of right now roughly 40% of all NASDAQ stocks have lost over 50% of their value that is quite remarkable considering that just the other day the SNP reached its all-time high Nothing in life is guaranteed but I believe that this marks the start of the burst which occurs when the very best performing stocks start to decline as the market Rises at the real estate market will fight it out the global real estate market is extremely high and the bond market is similarly high with interest rates at an all-time low however the stock market like the tech bubble and the year 2000 is primarily an American affair while it is often overpriced it is not particularly dangerous in the US because of our extreme overpricing and insane behavior and I believe we are in a rather dangerous Equity bubble as a result there is a good chance that Australia and the UK will experience similar risks Japan has a few countries with relatively affordable prices if they decline in unison they will likely decline much less and Rise sooner this Us bubble is comparable to the tech bubble of 2000 it is driven by the NASDAQ and the specs 2000 since the SNP has been rising while the specifications have underperformed the entire year it is possible that the SNP may rise to a new high however I don't think it is possible thus I believe the game has begun and it will likely unfold similarly to a 2000 the stock market has always detested inflation because it dri sdes down price earnings ratios however this time unusually inflation did not start roaring through the ceiling as pees kept Rising nothing like that had ever happened before we have a model that dates back to 1925 and it shows that price earnings ratios or the level of the Market's price are determined by two factors profit margins which the market naturally loves and inflation which it naturally hates these factors have worked like charm setting world records for profit margins at the top of the market in 2000 and today with relatively High inflation meaning that the market should have started to decline in the middle of last year had it been following the usual battle plan in the End the Fed doesn't like to get on the bad side of the administration politically the average person in the street notices that inflation is deatha if anything it is exaggerated but even without exaggeration it is painful and politically very tough on the voting pattern therefore the administration really wants to do everything it can to get inflation down the market is saying about inflation that it completely ignores it believes that it's temporary ephemeral Etc and it doesn't appear to be should that permet the market in the typical manner the price to earnings ratios will be severely suppressed thus it will be tactfully depending on the Federal Reserve to take appropriate action some individuals have dedicated their entire lives to following the Fed and understanding the subtleties of quarter and half points but I do not I am convinced that the FED will air on the side of caution and work diligently to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched however I also know that this will be challenging given the scarcity of Labor and the rising wage rates that will be implemented in the US over the coming months thus it will be difficult and the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates significantly if you must own US Stocks you should however own highquality stocks that are in Good Financial standing as these can always turn into financial crisis I would also like to emphasize that generally speaking non- US stocks and quite a few countries are not that bad although the high price of Commodities is a mixed blessing for emerging markets especially if the US withdraws the advantage of low prices usually outweighs all other considerations thus investing heavily in US Stocks would not be a good choice compared to inves in some of the less expensive developed Nations such as Emerging Markets I believe it is coming to an end I'm working on a paper that essentially explores the story of Goldilocks and the three starving Bears or the end of the Golden Age over the first 20 years of the 21st century everything changed profit margins averaged 30 to 35% higher and the PE average increased by 50 to 60% compared to the previous 50 to 60 years corporations gained significant political clout and capital gains taxes decreased dividend tax interest rate tax capital gains tax things fell apart the majority of the Regulatory Agencies were partly taken over by businesses and they enjoyed a golden age during which their earnings were never higher the monopolistic nature of our economy today and to some extent around the world has increased due to the concentration in each industry and the notable companies that have become instant monopolies in their own right while this is great for profits it is not so good for growth and governments are starting to become less valuable in my opinion I believe that they incorporate technology that like the internet may prove to be useful Here There and Everywhere when they are profitable you value them like any other business venture but in the meantime they just sit there and increase in value because people believe that they will it's essentially a matter of perception in particular I believe that Bitcoin does no good and is being replaced by a whole new generation of more intelligent and efficient cryptocurrencies many of which do not generate Revenue in the conventional sense and a select few do I have no doubt that the concept behind cryptocurrencies will last forever but I also have no doubt that the majority of their current perceived worth as a store of wealth is a fraud everyone can agree that the volatility of these assets is Extreme rising and falling along with high-risk stocks since this this isn't the fundamental idea what use is a store of value that trades like a hypersphere value has always been you pay for what you receive and gold in contrast to many thousand years of practice has remained boringly consistent over the previous couple of years I should know because I earned some I have always felt that the best definition of value is a dividend discount model that projects earnings into the future and discounts them back according to Quality with highquality companies having a lower disc account rate than junky companies this is why I'm not a big believer in Price to Book especially since book as an accounting entry has been extremely distorted in the last 20 years however not too long ago we studied the regression rate by type of company and tried to work out on a company specific basis given their unique characteristics we calculated the regression rate that each of them would have if they behaved normally as a result we kept Microsoft in our value portfolio throughout the 1990s we didn't phase it out until June 1999 by then we had 12 monthly slic by June 2000 we had completely eliminated Microsoft before the company faced a financial crisis using those models you can see for instance that Emerging Markets are incredibly cheap relatively speaking as cheap as they have ever been when compared to one or two other occasions however if anything they are even somewhat less EXP expensive in comparison and you can see that they are really not that bad at all that is the group for which the absolute price appears enticing and I can expect this because I hear it so frequently naturally there are always a lot of questions about Emerging Markets risk quality currency and so on and it's true that these questions have always existed but these markets are extremely Diversified for example the index comprises 28 countries with China account for 40% of those making China the world's largest economy in terms of inflation adjusted dollars India is growing significantly faster than the us alone this year they've also opened up a further 10% GDP Gap currently it stands at minus 4 and plus 6 as you can imagine the rest of the world believes that India will have to bear the brunt of nearly 13d of global growth on its own other interestingly India was growing faster than China but for the recent virus struck and it was on the verge of becoming a massive economy finally there's Brazil and other intriguingly riskier countries it truly is the future in a world where the developed world's growth rate which has been steadily declining for 40 years is finally slowing down when I arrived here the productivity per person hour was roughly 3% annually now it is down to 1% and one would be lucky to be employed in Europe thus growth is not what it was Additionally the US will experience negative growth in 10 years due to the increase in the workforce which was 1% annually when I arrived for the past 15 to 20 years Chan's Workforce growth rate has been negative and Europe is also experiencing negative growth we are experiencing a baby without parallel throughout the world in the developed markets so we will have to get used to a GDP growth that is much less than we anticipated there will also be a premium on growth and Emerging Markets will have far greater toeline Revenue than the developed world at 1.0 fertility when replacement is 2.1 South Korea's fertility rate is far lower than China's it's difficult to comprehend that half of the baby cohort is lost every generation that is every 30 to 35 years that is Italy is 1.4 and Japan is 1.4 China is a dismal 1.5 1.55 whereas the US is 1.70 Italy and Hungary are in the mix and the population growth rate of Europe will be very similar to China possibly a little bit higher but not enough to count the US will not have a growing labor force and it is highly unlikely that we will accept enough immigrants to prevent a decline in the baby cohort at 1.7 you're running 15% or more below replacement we haven't accepted that level of immigration in years and we're not sure how the numbers will hold up in the future let alone expand to zero however over the next 50 years the US Workforce will drop at a slower rate than that of Europe and China and naturally far more slowly than that of the developed World which will make the us one of the more alluring aspects of the other 60% therefore China will have a declining labor force while the other 60% will see an increase in labor force placing them far ahead of the developed World in this regard avoid difficulty and be sure not to purchase pricey marketplaces costly stocks highlight value for money look for the less expensive Nations look for the less expensive stocks inside such Nations maintain a small cash Reserve at the end of every major bubble there are often some very nice buying opportunities however I would advise most of you to avoid this terrible lust to participate in profit making out of fear of missing out on something it is very seductive and difficult to resist as we wrap up this deep dive into Jeremy grantham's preed warnings about the impending market crash it's clear that his insights should not be taken lightly Grantham renowned for his sharp foresight and profound understanding of market dynamics emphasizes that this crash will not just be another economic downturn but a pivotal event that could reshape the financial landscape for an entire generation his analysis suggests that the excesses of the past decades from balloting asset prices to mounting corporate debt are setting the stage for a significant correction this crash he argues will force a recalibration of investment strategies and economic policies making it crucial for investors to stay informed and prepared for investors especially those new to the market grantham's message is a wake-up call it's a reminder that markets are cyclical and that periods of exuberant growth are often followed by sharp downturns the key takeaway is to adopt a long-term perspective focus on fundamental value and be wary of speculative excesses Grandam advocates for a disciplined approach to investing emphasizing the importance of diversification risk management and patience in light of these insights it's essential for every investor to stay educated and Vigilant keep learning keep questioning and don't be swayed by short-term Market Market noise remember successful investing is not about timing the market but about time in the market if you found this analysis insightful and want to stay updated with more investment strategies and Market insights make sure to hit the like button share this video with fellow investors And subscribe to our Channel investing tutorial your support helps us bring more valuable content to help you navigate the complexities of the financial world thank you for watching and stay tuned for our next 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