저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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트럼프 당선 후 미국 경기 재가속과 규제완화를 전망하며, 공화당의 상하원 장악이 개혁 추진을 용이하게 한다고 봄. 대중국 60% 관세 시 제조업이 인도·동남아·멕시코로 이동하고 위안화 평가절하가 뒤따를 것으로 예상. 인도는 반도체 설계 소프트웨어와 제약(중간체·브랜드 제품) 수혜 전망, 금은 중앙은행 매수와 인도 수요로 10% 이상 보유 권고. 인도 밸류에이션은 PER보다 미래 성장 기준으로 여전히 합리적이며 조정은 매수 기회. 통화량 정체로 인플레 둔화, 연준은 금리 인상 없이 인하 쪽일 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
we have with us none other than Mark mobus chairman of mobus emerging opportunities fund Mark great to speak with you here at NDTV profit and the reason why the segment is also exciting because we're calling it the classroom with Mark we've uh invited queries from our viewers we've invited their questions on what Donald Trump's presidency means for Investments for stocks and of course for India so thank you so much for joining us and taking some of those questions but Mark let me begin before we get to all of our questions let me begin with with your take were you expecting this expanse of Victory I expected the victory but not this strong uh as you know the American Media has been very misleading in its reporting of what will happen during the election and they've been favoring uh camel Harris and the Democratic candidates so it was difficult to decide CER what was actually happening but I did know that Trump was in a strong position would probably win but not by the kind of margin that he has won and most importantly and most significantly it looks like the Republicans will have control of both the house and the Senate and that is very very important because it means that a lot of the reforms that Trump wants to put in place uh will be enabled with with congress's uh support with the Republicans in power so it's a very very significant situation that we see in America today um what do you think is going to be the impact now you know whenever there is such a polarized kind of a campaign and then finally a victory everyone waits to see what the candidate will actually do versus what they said in your view what does a trump presidency look like right now for Global markets and for emerging markets like India well first of all uh you will see a US economy resurging and there will be a strong US economy and the reason is that Trump will institute significant reforms particularly deregulation uh the thing that has held back uh many American companies and for that matter foreign companies operating in America is the high degree of Regulation around the environment around uh safety around uh money particularly money flows have been very very restricted as a result of the uh implementation of anti-money laundering and all the other ways that the government has tried to restrict the flow of money in fact they've weaponized the US dollar and that has been bad for the US dollar by the way because at the end of the day uh you're seeing the brick countries say oh we don't want to use the US dollar anymore because it's so restrictive we can't do anything now Trump is going to try to end that because he realizes that a dollar that can be used globally and is successful and popular globally is very good for the US economy so I think you're going to see a lot of deregulation that will help give governance uh govern these companies and also you're going to see a much more stronger uh environment for innovation which is so important to the American economy um Mark the the the usual uh things not withstanding which is maybe loser regulations for crypto so and so forth but there's a belief that it could hurt areas like Europe China uh the measures given out by Donald Trump but some of the competitive Port economies might actually benefit out of the tariffs as well how do you think about this aspect uh yeah it's very important uh let's assume that uh the US imposes a very high tariff 60% on Chinese goods and 10% for the rest of the world obviously what will happen is a lot of the manufacturer will move to those country with a lower tariff India of course benefits from that situation the other thing that can happen is that once a very high tariff is imposed on China the Chinese of course will have to take action they will do a number of things the first thing they will probably do is reduce the value of the remond B they devalue the remond B by 10% or more that means again that uh Chinese exporters will be able to go into a lot of countries uh with a a more competitive price and of course they'll go into the US they won't be able to beat a 60% tariff but at least they will be a little more competitive but more importantly they will move the manufacturing to places like India and particularly in Southeast Asia Mexico etc etc so um you know initially it seems that uh these tars will kill the global economy it will not because the global economy is very flexible Supply chains have been established all over the world and if you look at the history you'll find that one of the benefits of a high tarff for the us at least is that it brings more income to the federal government which means that the federal government can begin to pay off the incredible debt that have built up over the years particularly under the Democratic U environment so uh we're in a situation where it's very very positive in so many directions most importantly is the deregulation aspect and the fact that the US economy is going to be GR growing at a better Pace faster pace which will be good remember the US economy is the largest in the world so what's good for America often is good for the rest of the world in many ways okay well Mark as we said there are a lot of people who' have written in to try and understand how you think about it so I'm going to ask you one of the first of the many queries that have come in and it's coming in from a gentleman called Jes from New Delhi and Jes asks whether Trump's America first approach is good for the Indian export sector now you partly answered this but uh specifically for the export oriented companies would that be good or would it not be I think it will be fine I think the Indian export sector will do well particularly if Trump imposes a 60% tariff on China obviously the next logical place for people to manufacture would be India because you've got the population you got low cost labor you've got software companies that doing very well and you're going to see a lot more Manufacturing in the hardware sector particularly semiconductors so I think uh actually this is very good for India in particular okay so it is good for India we have a question coming from Karishma who says will trumps win increase the chances of more mergers and Acquisitions for Indian tech stocks very interesting uh question uh so how tech stocks have been responding Mark is on day one that is yesterday complete surge insane all around surge in tech stocks today there's been a pullback and a fairly sharp pullback what is the kind of impact you see on Indian tech companies uh because of Trump's possible policies uh well you know the interesting thing that's happening is that uh going unrecognized is the fact that the software sector in India has been progressing very very rapidly towards semiconductor software in other words designing the software for semiconductors this has been going on for quite some time but it's sort of been hidden from the public nobody really has been realizing we know of course you've got companies like Tata infosis doing normal software for Enterprises around the world but this is the first time that you've recognized the situation what that means of course is that more and more American companies in Intel uh all the rest of it inia they will be doing more and more software in India because the talent is there the knowledge is there the capability is there and the cost low cost is there now uh in terms of mergers in India of course that will depend on regulatory environment in India but it does make sense for some of these large software companies in India to merge and be big enough to tackle some of the huge challenges that they have in creating software for the semiconductor industry so you might see that happening okay so um in terms of opportunities for the semiconductor industry we see that for sure Mark but what are the other sectors from an Indian perspective which could benefit for example do you see any clear benefit for Indian pharmaceutical companies if uh the Trump Administration wants to go uh hard on China that's a very good point in fact one of the sectors I was thinking of mentioning was this the F farma sector as you know India has a very strong farma sector and Indian companies have been particularly good in doing the intermediate chemicals that end up in the final pharmaceutical product I think going forward you'll see more and more of these companies uh promoting branded finished products uh globally not only in India but globally and particularly in the US and of course uh the Indian companies have been fairly good at getting FDA approvals and with deregulation in America this might even become easier so it'll be interesting point to look at in terms of what the farmer sector will do but I would say uh that's one sector we're looking at and very favorable towards uh as a result of these change that's taking place okay um Mark U so one of the queries is whether how would gold and gold stocks perform now that Donald Trump has won and it's been a very interesting move in that a trump trade or a pre-trump trade you saw gold really moving up and now that he come and the strengthening dollar has meant gold has started to come off a little bit so what's your view on gold and gold stocks as well uh well my view of gold is still a bullish I believe that you should have gold in your portfolio physical gold at least 10% or maybe even more but one of the reasons why I'm particularly bullish on gold is because of India uh as you all know Indians love gold they believe in Gold they believe uh gold is really currency is something they should have for safekeeping and as per capita incomes in India rise of course the demand in India for gold will increase so that's one side the other side of course is that central banks around the world have been increasing their gold Holdings despite they all say our currency is not backed by gold but in fact they have been buying gold and the reason of course is that they're worrying about the global environment the dollar uh what Trump will do what he won't do or will do etc etc so uh I think the demand for gold will still be there of course there'll be fluctuations as the dollar gets stronger of course uh gold will weaken but uh I think we're now in a situation where there's still more strength coming in the US dollar but not that much more okay um Mark somebody would be curious that if you're looking at India and I know you looked at India you look at India very closely invest into India as well um you may not be able to talk stocks but themes or what sector should one invest in because there is a query that has come in from Kolkata from a gentleman called Yash or which sector should he invest in for the next four years well first of all the software side particularly those companies that are becoming much more expert in semiconductor software that that's one area the other area would be infrastructure um as you know uh there's a lot of infrastructure building going on in India but there's a lot more that has to be done uh if we compare the situation in India compared to China um um India has a long way to go to build more roads high-speed Railways etc etc so I think that's one sector and of course the sector is very wide you can go anywhere from the equipment suppliers uh to the companies that actually build the infrastructure so I think it's one sector you've got to look at very very carefully and uh and of course at the end of the day uh consumers as I mentioned in India are becoming wealthier per capita incomes are going up and that means not only consumer goods but particularly housing because the demand for housing which by the way goes along with the infrastructure area is very important so I would look at those sectors at the begin with uh you know I'm I'm just trying to understand uh Mark and we've been talking about um impact of trump on India but if I look at Indian markets on its own right now a bit of a rough patch I would say the last two trading sessions uh was a relief rally in a sense fueled by what's happening globally Etc um do you think that valuations is becoming a concern as far as India goes or uh will we see a turnaround and a return in foreign flows well yes there's no question a lot of people were concerned about valuations and when they talk about valuations they normally talk about PE price earnings ratio U and unfortunately price earnings ratios are not a very good measure of value because the Market discounts the future uh so uh the p is there but the E is not there we don't know what the earnings are going to be going and many people in order to make an estimate look through the back door they look backwards they don't look forward and in India as you know with an economy growing at this fast pace um let's say if the economy is growing at 7% companies will be growing at Double that the earnings growth will be double so uh if you take that into consideration you are better off looking at return on Capital and other measures which uh will look at the future rather than the past considering that I believe that the Indian market is still quite fairly valued and of course you'll see Corrections along the way but this will be an opportunity to buy rather than to sell um you know so so that is the FI mood but you know Mark we're also speaking just ahead of the FED meet and uh it's very unlikely Jerome pwell will come out and actually say anything about the Trump presidency but then that's the big question isn't it will Trump's moves increase inflation will we see a reversal in the kind of rate cut Outlook we had how are you seeing it well one of the favorable things that's going with Trump is that the money supply is actually uh stagnant and in fact uh going down in other words the growth rate is stagnant and the amount is decreasing and of course when you see a money supply in that situation that means that inflation is going to be sty or at least going this sidewards and maybe even going down so that's going to be favorable for Trump because he of course wants to see the inflation rate moving down particularly for the typical household goods food uh gasoline that sort of thing which is why he wants to drill drill drill he wants to have much more oil production because he realizes that at the end of the day um a lot of the prices are driven by fuel prices um because you've got to transport these Goods etc etc so I believe at the end of the day uh you're going to see a Fed which will not be very aggressive it's certainly not raising rates and probably maybe even be more aggressive in lowering rates but that will take care of itself the FED is sort of the the situation where they have to comply with what the numbers are telling them and very often they're too late the numbers are are looking backwards not looking forwards okay uh Mark mobus such a pleasure talking to you on this classroom
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