저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 백신 호재로 하우징·재택 관련주는 고점 신호가 나왔고, 월마트·코스트코 같은 오프라인 강자는 유지가 낫다는 취지. 백신 발표 이후 하우징 관련주가 고점을 찍었다는 판단이 제시됨. 백신 가능성이 커지면서 재택 관련 주식이 급락하는 흐름이 언급됨. 3분기까지 홈디포 매출이 약 1000억 달러에 근접해 작년 연간 1100억 달러에 가까워졌고, 동일매장매출 24% 증가, 객단가 10% 상승, 방문객 13% 증가 등 지표가 제시됨. 다만 주가는 이미 많이 올랐다는 평가. 소규모 자영업의 경기 충격이 우려되지만, 월마트는 오프라인 유통의 다윈적 승자로 평가되며 150달러 아래 매수 기회가 언급됨. 월마트 매도는 근시안적이라는 의견. 식료품점도 파산 위험을 검토해야 하며, 아마존 배송 등 온라인 경쟁이 커지고 있다고 언급. 코스트코는 대규모 특별배당을 발표해 재무가 탄탄하다고 평가되며, 회원 수 확대와 회비 인상이 핵심 수익원으로 제시됨. 코스트코는 중국 진출을 앞두고 있으며, 과거 월마트의 중국 매장 개장 초기 혼잡 사례가 언급됨.
다듬은 글
depot's the other amazing story our our robert hum points out this morning that through q3 jim about a hundred billion in revenue that is not that far from the entire year last year of 110 billion and comp sub 24 uh inventory up two average ticket up ten traffic up 13. it's an amazing set of metrics and it's not enough and i think that again uh the stock has run up but there's also a definitive housing trade uh the housing stocks peaked when pfizer came out with its vaccine and david you know there is a there's the pre-pfizer world and the post and as soon as we got the possibility of nationwide vaccine there are stocks that have been people have been running from like you wouldn't believe and they were the stocks that people got excited about because we didn't think that we would have a vaccine anytime soon right and we saw that last week and then we saw it again yesterday in the response to the modern news about 94.5 effectiveness for their potential vaccine candidate both of which we could be seeing fairly soon at least hopefully being actually put into people's arms let's call it by early next year most vulnerable but jim does it make sense have we gone too far one trade to the other are we not taking account of the economic devastation that is going to be uh the case for a lot of small businesses over the next couple of months as coronavirus cases that's why i want to buy walmart if i can buy walmart under 150 that's a nice turn from where it was at 154 because there's no stimulus so uh it's too far the general distribution of the vaccine david is too far versus the competition that must go under because the balance sheets of anybody i mean this is like the restaurants where 40 are going under the balance sheets can't be sustained against walmart uh i even grocery stores we'll have to examine whether grocery stores whether it be more places like kings that go bankrupt it is really uh a remarkable time because i think that walmart is the darwinian winner of the brick brick and mortar and to get rid of that stock right now is to be very short-sighted very so the landscape will simply be walmart a target watch i'm just going to watch and and virtually at costco and look i think it would be in contact with costco and your and then guys on the street delivering your amazon stuff yeah i think that's so and why not why not that's the way of the that's the way of the future we can't fight it carl costco last night gives ten dollars to their customers because to their owners because the balance sheet's so great they don't have any dividend yeah a special dividend call i mean just put it in my pocket please a as this is a great time for costco and no no samples it's the it's the fourth special dividend uh in the past eight years it's also the largest and jim we talk about it all the time costco investors basically live for two things membership fee increases and special dividends yeah i costco is a business where all you got to do is see how many people are signing up and you know how they're doing because they don't want to necessarily make a lot of money when i was out in in seattle david i don't know if you ever drink wine but they had caymus well below what a distributor can get it at before they mark it up really nice yes you like that good years you like to drink the canvas that you buy at your parties yes in fact i don't leave that area where when they're actually pouring it but i have the special 40 year yes but uh it is a remarkable thing to see the prices costco but remember they want you as a member and that's how they make their money and they're just they are just now uh going to storm china can you imagine they're going to storm china storm it really just take it by storm you know walmart tried to do that a number of years back i remember having been there it's gone okay they opened their first one and then they had to close at midday because there were so many customers yes that happens that happens that happened with walmart too though we'll see
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