저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
로비니는 암호화폐가 거품이며 이미 붕괴 중이라고 주장한다. 암호화폐 시장 비트코인은 2만 달러에서 6천 달러 수준으로 약 70% 하락했고, 다른 코인은 90% 이상 폭락했다고 설명한다. 사기·조작·이해충돌이 많은 공간이라고 평가한다. 블록체인·핀테크 금융 서비스 혁신은 AI·빅데이터·사물인터넷 기반이며 블록체인과는 무관하다고 본다. 킬러 앱이 없고 코인 앱의 75%는 카지노 게임, 25%는 쓰이지 않는 탈중앙 거래소 수준이라고 주장하며, 블록체인 핀테크를 인류 역사상 가장 과대 포장된 기술로 꼽는다. 인터넷 초기 과대평가와 달리 이후 실제 사용이 확인된 사례와 대비한다. 거시경제 전망 올해와 내년은 미국 재정부양 덕에 성장이 괜찮겠지만, 2020년에는 재정 긴축 효과, 연준 금리인상(2%→3~3.5%), 무역전쟁, 원자재 가격 상승으로 성장 둔화 또는 침체 위험이 있다고 본다. 자산시장도 조정받을 것이라 예상한다. 연준 독립성 트럼프 대통령의 연준 공격을 비판하며, 베네수엘라·튀르키예 사례처럼 중앙은행 정치화는 인플레와 금융 불안을 부른다고 경고한다. 연준은 독립적으로 두고 개입을 멈추라고 조언한다. 출연자 입장 본인은 암호화폐 포지션이 없어 이해상충이 없다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
so I first want to thank you for joining us here block show today a great event so I'm honored to being part of it well I'm honored to have you sitting across from me with the many debates that I've seen you go across the table with a lot of folks but I'm more interested in knowing right now you've been looked at as one of the top 100 global thinkers how does that feel do you feel a sense of responsibility with that or sense of achievement well you know it's flattering to be considered a global thinker and I started first one I could I make then I did policy work for the US government for several years run a business and economic consultancy so I've always been an academic and intellectual so I think about all the economic financial and even political questions our times and I try to make sense of it so I spent a little in my lifetime traveling around the world understanding it's very complicated world and so it's a flattering tube you can see there it's as one of the thinkers that people want to listen to it whether you're Pro crypto or not it's actually a big honor no matter what to the inside that world so I'm glad that anything of it these predictions that you did you have this analysis how do you go about that like how is this an innate do you feel that you just know you have a feel with that what's your analysis your process like well you know I've been studying the global economy and financial markets for 30 40 years and the combination of having first of an academic experience writing thousands of academic paper theoretical empirical secondly having the policy experience of spending several years in Washington and getting to know every senior policy maker in the world and then following financial market and understanding how they work so it's both rigorous academic analysis and models but also a lot of following the global economy day-in day-out right in trying to connect the dots and make sense of it and I got an expertise on financial crisis asset bubbles credit bubbles and why they go bust you know financial crises are not Black Swan events that occur randomly is not like an earthquake or a tornado that you predict is more than like a buildup of financial vulnerabilities policy mistakes and other vulnerabilities of the economic and financial system they reach a tipping point so financial crisis to some degree can be predicted and bubbles can be analyzed it's not just a random guess that's how you and so for the 2008 crisis what led you wet analysis you went through a lot of what was the wiki analysis and you predicting that 2008 crisis well you know before the 2008 crisis that's been literally 10-15 years first studying other financial crises as an expert of the Asian and emerging market financial crisis then I worked in policy trying to understand how you figure out these crisis and resolving them and then either sophisticated understanding also of market reaction so was a combination of all these things and allowed me to see not just the housing bubble not just the subprime bubble but how this is gonna become a global financial crisis writer than a housing boom and bust so we saw was really a combination of things that together led me to make it there assessment right and so what are you looking at for the immediate future of the global economy which we look out for now well this year and next year the global economy is gonna do reasonably well because we're very undesirable and unsustainable fiscal stimulus in the US but that steam was gonna lead to growth being above potential at 3% rather than to I worried that by 2020 we could have a stall of economic growth if not recession because of a combination of factors the fiscal stimulus becomes a fiscal drag secondly the Fed is going to raise rate from 2% or worse three and a half three we're gonna have the beginning of trade wars that gonna create economic friction for all happening asset markets are gonna correct seeing that and finally all in commodity prices are going to be higher given supply constraints that that's gonna be a dampening of an economic activity we're also live in a world in which there is a populist backlash against trade against migration and in globalization against supranational activity and this political risk are becoming things that the markets are going to become sensitive to so this year and next they look okay but by 2020 thing there is of a economic slowdown if not a global contraction what about without getting to a political with the current administration how do you feel that the current leadership is approaching the Fed right now in the past 24 to 48 hours how they're battling back with the Fed well one of the lessons of the last decades is that central banks have to be independent and when they're not independent like in the case of say Venezuela where you have now I could inflation but those of cases like Turkey today where the president is attacking the central bank and telling them donor is interest rate then currencies tend to collapse and then you have rise in inflation and your financial instability so I think that one of the reasons we're facing today is that even today when growth in the second quarter was 4% and unemployment rate is below 4% the presidency started to attack the Fed is saying there is an interest rate is not justified it's justified because policy rates are still below inflation so real rates are actually negative so if Trump is attacking the Fed today when the economy is still booming what's gonna happen in 2020 where you have another election and he has to run again for the presidency and most likely economic growth is going to slow down towards 1% if not less because of monetary fiscal factors trade and other types of friction I worry about politicizing what the central bank does in the experience about the emerging markets suggest if you politicize the Fed then you try to interfere with it their negative economic and financial consequences he's playing with fire trying to attack the Fed as it's doing right now what would you advise him to do the best thing you can do is to tell like every other president the Fed is independent the Fed is a dual mandate you want to on one sense maintain price stability inflation close to 2% and maximum economic growth these sustainable and maximum employment and let the fact that these independent decides most of the time they do the right thing interfering with the Fed is gonna have financial and economic impacts they're gonna be negative so better just to shut up and not interfere with the Fed that's the best advice I can give to any government any president any administration in any country okay throwing this at you have you ever considered developing your own cryptocurrency and if you did what would it have to contain well first of all I have not done so and my speeches and my arguments are all on why cryptocurrencies are a bubble has gone bust and by the way I think one important thing in this debate is that I don't have any financial position and financial interest crypto currencies like Bitcoin can go to the moon and be worth $1,000,000 or can go to zero okay I don't have a long position I don't have a short position in Bitcoin in any other cryptocurrency in any blockchain or related asset so what I'm saying is based on my best analytical academic assessment of this particular industry I'm not gonna make a penny whether it's going to the moon or going to zero I'm just having my reputation at stake and when I speak about this particular space I'm not talking my book pretty much everybody else in this market in this business are talking their book and trying to boost the wrong currency and the wrong business I have zero financial interest in this space and therefore I don't want to have a crypto currency I don't want to invest in Kuta currency another one to short them I don't want to go long into them I want to be neutral because I'm independent and whenever I speak about the topic I have no financial interests in it okay so you feel strong about that yeah in academic honesty independence and lack of calm like of any formal conflict of interest I have a zero conflict of interest I just make in my mind with all of the education with all of the experiences you have what's going to happen in the cryptocurrency market that will not happen in the traditional market to me the cryptocurrency market is the mother or father of all the financial bubbles Bitcoin went from a thousand to five thousand to ten thousand to twenty thousand last year but in the last nine months as lost already 70% of his value has gone from twenty thousand to six and that's the best of all the other cryptocurrency because the other typical the currency lost more than ninety percent of its value so that's an example of a Bob wolf has gone bust this is a space where there is a lot of vapor world a lot of scams a lot of manipulation a lot of conflicted interest stuff that is shady and this bubble was a big bubble has gone bust so there is a revolution in financial services is fing tech revolutionising payment system credit allocation insurance capital markets asset management is based on AI big data Internet of Things is not based on blockchain is not placed on cryptocurrency revolution Financial Services has zero to do with crypto is zero to do with logic zero application for that happening now and or in the future really holding its weight really grabbing yes there's no if they're not gonna happen there's no killer up 75 percent of all the the apps are what crypto cuties exactly then casino games like in Vegas and 25 percent of it is decentralized exchange that nobody's using so you know that no country outside the US the US no one will succeed in blockchain crypto FinTech space I think is the most overhyped technology in human history not Jamie thank you Wow more overhyped in the Internet in the beginning much more because the Internet there was something real afterward huh we only knew that afterwards we only knew it was actually real when we started using no because whenever they tonight started that was a mana when a first adopter millions of people started to use email millions of people start to use the web means that people created websites and there were goods and services and real businesses do you know think years into this face the only thing we have is a bit coin and crypto kitties and Ponzi schemes there is no killer app and there's not gonna be any killer up you know what I have to tell you that we're going to end it right on that note and we will take your words and I hope I see you in the World Economic Forum shortly and what else changing this conversation and we'll see if anyone stood out above and beyond where you think that no one will succeed I cannot thank you enough up in mind that absolutely I'm a skeptical but good and a good one at that there was a pleasure thank you so much
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