저자: NickTrain · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 펀드 실적과 배당 성장에 대한 낙관을 유지하며, 거시 우려에도 개별 기업 실적을 근거로 추가 매수했다고 밝힘. 펀드 실적: 2017.9~2018.9 기간 NAV 총수익률 약 +13%, 같은 기간 FT 올쉐어 지수 약 +6%. 다만 인수합병(M&A) 효과가 일부 기여해 내년 동일 수익률을 기대하기는 어렵다고 언급. 배당: 올해 배당금 합계 15.3펜스, 전년 대비 약 8% 증가. 2001년 운용 시작 당시 3펜스대에서 약 5배 성장. 거시 환경: 브렉시트, 국제 정치, 금리 상승 등 우려가 있으나 개별 기업 실적은 대체로 양호하다고 평가. 단기 거시 우려보다 기업 가치가 중요하다는 입장. 주목 근거: 2018.6 기준 12개월 스카치위스키 글로벌 출하량 +12%(전년 +5%). 라틴아메리카 회복, 아시아(특히 중국) 프리미엄 주류 수요 성장 언급. 최대 보유 종목 디아지오(Diageo)에 긍정적. 콘텐츠 가치: 2018년 8월 유벤투스 주가 +40%, 맨유 +27%, 셀틱 +22%를 예로 들며 필수 시청 콘텐츠의 가치 상승과 디지털 기술의 수혜를 강조. 이는 펀드의 주요 테마라고 설명. 출처 언급: 나심 탈레브의 'Skin in the Game' 인용, 말보다 실제 포트폴리오가 중요하다는 취지. 투자 행동: 방송 녹화일 시장 약세를 기회로 본인 자금으로 펀드 주식을 추가 매수했다고 밝힘. 지속적 만족스러운 수익률에 대한 확신 표명. 리스크: 단기 거시 변수, M&A 기반 수익의 지속 불확실성 인정.
다듬은 글
so I'm speaking to you about Finsbury growth and income trust and with some time towards the end of the first week of October October 2018 now Finsbury growth an income trusts financial year end is the end of September so we've only just completed the company's the company's financial year and I don't have exactly the official statistics for the performance over the last twelve month period but I'm going to tell you it's something like an nav net asset value total return for Finsbury of plus 13% over the 12 months September 17 to September 18 and by contrast the FT all share index is up something like around 6% on a comparable basis so it looks as though I can feel satisfied I hope shareholders can feel satisfied that we've been able to deliver unacceptable unacceptable return for for shareholders over that over that period I'm always conscious though of the extent to which luck can play a part in any given 12 month or six month period we had a couple of takeovers of long-standing holdings last year which a boosted our returns and of course you never know with that you'll get more takeovers next year or maybe not for another five years so the performance is satisfying but I wouldn't want to you know necessarily extrapolate that into the into into next year for instance what I think though is more significant and is very gratifying for us is the dividend return or the dividend growth from Finsbury over the last 12 months we have already announced the final dividend and adding the to dividends together for this year we've increased the dividend by just under 8% the dividend this year totals fifteen point three pence and I can't help but think back to when I was first appointed to run Finsbury back in 2001 when the company's dividend at that time was just over three pence so in other words over the seventeen years or however long it is we've been able to grow the dividend nearly fivefold from around three P to fifteen P and in many ways I think that is the best long-term measure of the wealth and the value that we've created for shareholders it's getting rich relatively slowly but nonetheless I'm hopeful that it can it can continue so can we continue that steady pace of dividend growth for Finsbury can we continue that steady pace of value creation for shareholders now listen I know that there are a lot of macroeconomic issues out there right now that make people worry about whether that sort of that sort of wealth creation is is sustainable you know we can talk about brexit we can talk about international politics we can talk about rising interest rates and I acknowledge that all of those are issues that yeah markets investors are worrying about today but I have to keep coming back to the individual companies that were invested in with infants breast portfolio and I have to say almost without exception what I see from those businesses is good news and in Korea Trading and encouraging developments for these companies for these companies well-being over over time and I've got to believe that that is more important than what we will hope to be a short-term a short-term macro macro concerns so I don't know I just wanted to share with you two separate statistics or anecdotes that seemed to me to underwrite a sense of optimism about not just what we're invested in but maybe suggesting that underlying the world isn't the world isn't in such a parlous state as some of the headlines might suggest so first of all we were I was extremely encouraged to note that over the 12 months the 12 months ending June 2018 so a couple of months ago admittedly but over the the 12 months to June 2018 global shipments of Scotch global shipments of Scotch whisky were up 12 percent year-on-year now just by contrast in the preceding 12-month period global shipments of Scotch had been up 5% so in other words there's been a marked uplift in the amount of Scotch being shipped around the world and obviously that also means the amount of Scotch being drunk around the world why is that two central reasons one Latin America has stopped getting worse last America consumes a lot of scotch that part of the world has been through the wringer over the last two or three years but it looks as though for some of the major economies there the worst is past and that there has been actually a recovery of scotch shipments to Latin America secondly an even more importantly demand for scotch and all premium spirits in Asia and particularly China continues to grow now to us that fact about that acceleration in scotch is such good news one because it confirms that actually this long-term trend of increased growth increased wealth around the world particularly in some of the so-called emerging economies continues and that is a big big bedrock for any optimism about about the the way that the world may be over the next few years second it's obviously very very good news for what is our biggest holding today in Finsbury growth and income Trust which is Diageo the world's biggest the world's biggest scotch business so that was reassuring and pleasing to me second thing I wanted to to highlight you might think it's an odd thing for me to point out but I'm gonna do it anyway in the month of August yeah August 2008 een in the month of August the share prices of Juventus football club went up 40% just in August the share price of Manchester United went up 27% and the share price of Celtic Football Club went up 22% now so what you might say well actually it's quite significant for us because we own some shares in you ventas in linsell Trains global equity fund we also ensures of Manchester United and Celtic in your company in Finsbury and what that big move in the share prices of those sports franchises is telling us we are sure what it's telling us is that the value of must-watch entertainment must-watch content the value of such content is going up we all know that digital technology is changing the world right now and it's absolutely clear to us that what digital technology is doing is helping companies that have must have information must have entertainment rights it's helping them develop their develop and grow their businesses this is another major major theme across Finsbury portfolio it's another big driver for rising equity markets in our opinion over the next few years I don't know if you know who I mean when I mentioned the name Nick Talib Nick Talib is the ex hedge fund trader and now academic philosopher author who wrote Black Swan and fooled by randomness I don't know if you know those books anyway Nick Talib's most recent book which I recommend to you by the way his most recent book is called skin in the game and there is a great quote in skin in the game what Talib says is don't tell me what you think tell me what's in your portfolio yeah so do you understand what he's saying all of us me all of these talking heads we've all got of you we can all tell you what we think is going on in the world but what Talib is saying is I don't care about what you think what are you actually doing what are you actually doing with your own savings are you actually you say you're optimistic are you actually putting your own money where your mouth is is your skin in the game and so I just wanted to conclude this by telling you you know just being candid about this today the day that I'm recording this today I have bought some more shares in Finsbury growth and income trust for myself the markets had a bit of a wobble I've taken an opportunity from that what will to buy more shares so all I can assure you is what I've been saying earlier about the prospects for a continuation of satisfactory returns I believe it and I don't just believe it I'm actually prepared to to invest behind that conviction as well so for what comfort that provides to you I don't know but let's hope it doesn't let's hope we're right thank you
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