저자: SimpleStockInvesting채널운영자 · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏처럼 종목을 고르는 방법을 소개하고, 자신이 만든 엑셀 스크리너로 버핏·그레이엄 기준을 자동 적용해 S&P 500을 장기간 이겼다고 주장하는 영상이다. 핵심 주장: 버핏은 단기 시장 변동보다 5년 이상 장기 관점으로 투자하며, 그의 방법은 상식적이고 단순하다. 버핏 기준 지표: 자기자본이익률(ROE) 15% 이상, 투하자본이익률(ROIC) 15% 이상, 매출총이익률 30% 이상, PEG 1 미만 등을 기준으로 기업을 걸러낸다. 백테스트 결과: 과거 5년 데이터로 약 100개 종목을 분석해 2개를 선정했고, 한 종목은 연 50% 이상, 다른 종목은 연 약 15% 수익을 냈다고 설명한다. 자동화 결과: S&P 500 종목 약 500개를 넣은 엑셀 분석기가 여러 기간에서 S&P 500을 거의 매번 이겼다고 주장한다. 통계 근거: 전문가가 1년 이기는 확률은 25%, 5년은 약 0.098%, 10년은 약 1/1억 500만, 20년 이상은 사실상 0%라는 추정을 제시해 버핏의 기록이 운이 아니라고 주장한다. 리스크·조건: 과거 데이터 기반 백테스트이며 미래 수익을 보장하지 않는다. 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아 등 목록) 관련 직접적인 가격 예측 발언은 없다. 결론: 가치투자는 안전하고 논리적인 접근이며, 감정과 투기 대신 객관적 재무 데이터에 기반한 장기투자를 권장한다.
다듬은 글
hi today we're going to talk about how to find stocks like Warren Buffett people say that Buffett is so successful because he doesn't follow the masses he use his own common sense to make decisions even if that means going totally against the grain and what's perceived as normal once you learn about Warren Buffett you will realize that he doesn't follow the general public's perception of stock diversification he has often put all of his eggs in one basket it's also interesting to know that Buffett doesn't really care about the daily monthly or even one year ups and downs of market he is more focused on the long-term around five years and Beyond throughout as many years of investing Buffett didn't even have a computer calculator or stock ticker in his office after reading his books you'll realize the daily monthly quarterly and even 12-month ups and downs of the market are mostly based on the emotions and fears of people the majority of this kind of investing is speculation analysts advisors and investors who are attempting to predict and time the market movements are relying on speculative methods there is no accurate way to predict what will happen in the market however when you start looking at the previous five and ten years of historical data of a particular stock you're better able to see good companies to possibly invest in this long-term view is how Buffett finds his winning companies he has a set of data or financial metrics that he looks at to compare each stock he also has his set of common sense questions that tell him if the company has a competitive advantage over its competitors you can learn about these financial metrics and questions by reading the Warren Buffett way and the Buffett ology series that I've mentioned many beginner investors while I was reading or listening to these audio books I was shocked that they were giving away the investing secrets of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham the other thing I was surprised about is why more people don't just implement their methods to invest in their own portfolios then I realized that some people will probably be scared away by the financial metric terms that are used to analyze a stock such as ROI ROI see GPM pegi shio et cetera or return on equity return on invested capital gross profit margin price earnings to growth ratio respectively really these terms aren't anything to be afraid of they are just fancy ways of explaining the chance of income and expenses for our company and variations of it Buffett has some basic guidelines in comparing these metrics for example these are some of the criteria that Buffett looks for when analyzing stocks return on equity fifteen percent or more return on invested capital fifteen percent or more gross profit margin thirty percent or more p eg ratio less than one so you can basically just look up these metrics which can be found online and see if the company or analyzing meets the requirements however this can be very time-consuming especially when done manually that is why people use websites and software programs to automatically calculate and compare these metrics but even with these websites and software programs people still fail to implement Buffett strategies for success why is this he doesn't really keep his investing strategies a secret you can read about them in recommended books about Buffett or in his mid annual reports you can listen to his lectures and interviews by him and his investing partner Charlie Munger they basically tell you how they invest and what they look for in a company I believe the problem is that their method of investing uses too much common sense it's simple and straightforward and people think there must be some bigger better secret way to investing that they will surely discover I was not too confident in my own abilities to analyze stocks so I simply wrote down every criterion that I learned about in regards to buffets analysis methods I also noted the analyzing metrics and formula formulas that his mentor Benjamin Graham implemented I put a combination of the most important of these metrics and formulas into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and started testing them with historical data in other words I would act as if I was investing in stocks five years ago I would analyze different stocks from five years ago according to buffets and grams requirements if the stock passed all of their requirements and I would mark it as a stock to buy after analyzing about a hundred stocks I ended up with only two stocks that were considered as a stock to buy according to my analyzer and then calculated the annualized return I would have made if i bought the stocks five years earlier and sold them on that current day one of the stocks showed in the annual return of over fifty percent per year for five years the other stock showed an annual return of around fifteen percent per year for five years this was very exciting for me because it made me realize that copying buffets and gram strategies might actually work however I would need to test many more stocks over multiple periods of time doing it manually wouldn't work because it was taking me such a long time just to analyze each stock so I decided to make a fully automated Microsoft Excel spreadsheet which I could load with around 500 stock symbols from the sp500 to automatically pick the winners then I could also see how the winning stocks performed over the next five and eventually ten years to my amazement my analyzer picked a small combination of stocks that beat the S&P 500 almost every time I ran tested the S&P 500 stocks from all months over all different time ranges and it was proving that by following Buffett and grams value investing method of picking stocks I was reducing my risk by giving myself an important margin of safety and also increasing my chances of beating the market to beat the market or beat the S&P 500 is no easy task as I found out from research it turns out that Warren Buffett's record of beating the market is a bit of a phenomenon that can't easily be explained some people have even tried to say that it was luck but statistical analysis has proven that there is a slim to none chance that Buffett's consistent winning record could be based on luck it's clear that he has an investing system in place that works and it works extremely well I'm no financial advisor or stock genius I simply put this same type of system into an easy to use automated spreadsheet and I'm happy to say it works very well how well does the analyzer work consider the fact that the analyzer has consistently beaten the S&P 500 month after month for 10 years of historical data analysis why is it so important to beat the S&P 500 the S&P 500 is a benchmark that many investors and financial advisors try to beat each year as a side of success many consider the S&P 500 is the best representation of the American stock market as a whole how hard is it to beat the market this is an estimate of normal financial advisors or investors chance of beating the market over a number of years chance of beating the sp500 for one year is twenty-five percent or one out of four investors the chance of beating the S&P 500 for two years is six point two five percent or one out of 16 investors for five years it's point zero nine eight percent one out of 1,000 20 investors from 10 years it is one out of 105 million investors for 20 years it's one out of 100 11 trillion investors and in 30 years let's just say we have zero percent chance first this information tells us that Buffett's record of beating the market consistently for decades is quite amazing and seems that it couldn't be just luck also this info tells us that it might be rare to beat the market but it's not impossible however most people base their investing off of speculation and emotions if you use a concrete common sense system for investing over the long term it is very possible to give yourself a house advantage to beat the market year after year just like Warren Buffett Charlie Munger Peter Lynch john templeton and benjamin graham take back control of your money you've worked hard for your money why let someone else gamble foolishly with it invest in a smart common-sense way that is based objectively on proven historical stock data and not on emotions and speculation I fully recommend value investing as a safe and logical approach to stock investing if you're ready to start finding good companies at bargain prices to invest it then you can also check out my free stock spreadsheet and see how it analyzes individual companies according to grams and buffets investing strategies without you having to reinvent the wheel or spend hours analyzing one stock at a time the manual I'm grant gelati thanks for listening and here's to beating the market together you
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