저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC는 파운드리 시장 점유율 1위(53.4%)로 구조적 성장과 높은 수익성을 갖춘 저평가 종목이라는 분석 영상이다. 시장 구조: 세계 순수 파운드리 시장에서 TSMC 53.4%, 삼성 16.5%, UMC 7.2%, GlobalFoundries 5.9%. 2030년까지 파운드리 시장은 1,710억 달러, 연평균 7.9% 성장 전망(Global Newswire 인용). 성장 동력: IoT, 스마트팩토리, 스마트홈, 5G 및 향후 6G 연결 확대가 반도체 수요를 견인한다고 설명. 사업 구성: 스마트폰 44%, 고성능 컴퓨팅 37%, IoT 9%, 자동차 4%, 디지털 가전 3%, 기타 나머지. 매출의 약 25%가 애플에서 발생하며 애플의 M1·M2 칩을 공급한다고 언급. 실적: 3분기 매출 전년비 35.9% 증가, 2022년 내내 월평균 성장률 약 40%. 순이익률 45.8%로 12년 내 최고 수준. 밸류에이션: 12년 중앙값 PE 약 16, 2020~2021년 30 이상까지 상승, 버핏 지분 공개 직전 PE 약 12로 12년 평균 이하. 선행 PE 11.4. 성장률(20~30%) 대비 저평가 주장(피터 린치 PEG 관점). 재무 건전성: ROIC 40.1%, ROE 41.8%, 장기부채/자기자본 0.32, 현금 약 500억 달러(전년 대비 50% 증가), 배당성향 32%, 5년 배당성장률 13.1%, 배당수익률 2.26%. 결론 및 리스크: 버핏 투자와 저평가를 근거로 긍정적 평가. 주요 리스크는 중국-대만 분쟁이며, 이 위험은 예상보다 낮아졌다고 판단. 대형 해자·고효율·저평가 조합이면 매수 대상이라는 견해. 면책: 교육 목적이며 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett just bought tsmc and the stock surged but it is still down quite a lot from its all-time high in this video I'll Deep dive into tsmc's business performance and analyze the company's investment potential stay tuned until the end to extract the maximum value from this analysis as always always set with educational purposes and is not meant to be taken as Financial advice when it comes to the semiconductor industry tsmc has a global Supremacy is 53.4 percent of the global Pure Play Foundry Market is in their hands it is important to understand the different divisions of the semiconductor space The Foundry Market is one segment of the semiconductor space for example Intel and Samsung design and manufacture their own chips tsmc is a Foundry player which means they manufacture chips for other companies that don't have the capacity to do so when it comes to The Foundry semiconductor space the global market share per company is as follows tsmc is number one by a large margin and then comes Samsung which is also in this space as it produces semiconductors for other companies as well as they produce their own chips Samsung owns 16.5 percent of the global market on spot number three is UMC the United micro Electronics corporation which is also a Taiwanese company and it has a 7.2 percent share the fourth spot goes to Global foundries Inc which has a 5.9 share the global semiconductor Foundry Market is estimated to be valued at over 171 billion USD by 2030 representing a cagr of 7.9 percent from 2022 to 2030 according to Global Newswire cagr stands for compounded annual growth rate this growth is a pretty good one which is a pretty good underlying growth for the industry and in a moment we'll see how tsmc is crushing this average industry growth the main drivers for growth in the industry are internet connected devices that collect and analyze data using sensors and software this will be a big Development Area for semiconductors smart factories for example may help you to monitor shop floor activities and ensure that every equipment is running at maximum efficiency freeing up floor space and lowering prices furthermore the emergence of Smart Homes allows consumers to utilize a smartphone app to control their home's lighting and appliances iot devices may also enable users to remotely monitor security elements in their homes another catalyst is the ever increasing 5G connections and soon to come 6G now that we know the main industry specifics of tsmc and its Market positioning let's analyze their latest business results in their Q3 earnings report they stated that the year-over-year growth in revenue is 35.9 percent which is quite the rate of increase on the following graph tsmc is showcasing their year-on-year monthly growth what can be seen is that throughout 2022 the business growth is insane with an average rate of growth close to 40 percent this is not only industry leading growth but it is an insane growth for any other industry the percentages are showing the increases to tsmc's revenue but let's now see how this revenue is broken down the business of tsmc could be placed in six categories automotives take four percent of their business Revenue share digital consumer electronics take a three percent share and the internet of things or iot sector for short takes a nine percent Revenue share the big boy spaces for tsmc are in the high performance Computing with a 37 share in the smartphone sector which has a 44 Revenue share of tsmc's business the last sixth Revenue segment is specified as others it is also important to note that 25 of tsmc's Revenue is coming directly from Apple as tsmc is their main chip supplier and as aided by Reuters during the following year Apple plans to continue its relationship with dsmc in the future iPhones and Macs will include chips from the company Apple is ordering both their M1 and M2 chips from Taiwan also Qualcomm is another big customer of tsmc in the Q3 report tsmc stated they have a net profit margin of 45.8 percent this is a huge net profit margin and it means for every dollar of sales the company is putting in 45 cents to its bottom line also even more impressive is that the company is paying out a solid dividend and the dividend is paid before the earnings in a bit I'll analyze the dividends security levels this huge net profit margin is a great safety net for the company and it is showing me as a potential investor that the the company's efficiency is very respectable on the following chart you can see how the net margin has changed over the last 12 years today tsmc has the highest margin over the last 12 year period showcasing that they have never had a more efficient business when it comes to profitability this is an awesome sign also in terms of growth this year's Revenue increases are not something out of this world for tsmc as you can see over the last 12 years their year-on-year quarterly growth is incredible and it is almost always quite high on a constant basis over the last three years the growth has been almost always above 25 to 30 percent which is a very strong Revenue performance at the same time the current multiple of tsmc is not high at all in relation to their business growth potential strong mode and very high efficiency which is becoming even better over time as we saw over the last 12 years the median PE for tsmc is around 16.
during late 2020 and 2021 the PE ratio of tsmc gold way out of Norm as it reached more than 30. most recently before Buffett disclosed his position on the 15th of November the PE of tsmc was trading at about 12 which is below its 12-year average and extremely low in relation to their growth and other business metrics the earnings multiple rule of Peter Lynch states that the PE should not be higher than the expected future growth in the eyes of tsmc their expected growth is again in the 20 to 30 percent range and with their current pef 16.5 they're not only undervalued in relation to their growth but they are also exactly around their average level over the last 12 years the forward PE ratio is expected to be 11.4 which is also extremely low in terms of business efficiency Buffett really likes the roic and Roe metrics which for tsmc are extremely high the return on invested capital is 40.1 percent while the return on Equity is 41.8 percent we want these metrics to be 12 or higher and at the moment there are around 3.5 times bigger the debt management of tsmc is also very strong the long-term debt to equity ratio is 0.32 according to Warren Buffett this is best to be below 0.5 and it is also the company has nearly 50 billion in cash on hand which is a 50 increase since a year ago the dividend of tsmc is also very stable with a dividend payout ratio of 0.32 and a five-year dividend growth rate of 13.1 percent this means that the Dividends are only 32 percent of the total earnings which is a very safe Zone and it indicates the growth in the dividend could increase the current dividend yield is 2.26 percent which is also quite nice from all perspectives I like tsmc as a business and I really like it as an investment also due to Buffett's investment into the company I think now that the risk of a China Taiwan conflict are much lower than expected this is the main risk regarding this investment at the moment in general when a business has a big mold low debts very high efficient efficiency and it is undervalued in relation to its earnings usually it's a buy for me I hope this video was of value to you and if it was please like And subscribe so I can bring even more valuable content to you you can comment down below which other topics you want me to cover next here on the channel goodbye for now and until next time
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