저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Bill Miller의 2023년 포트폴리오 상위 10개 종목을 분석한 영상이다. 핵심 결론: 상위 10개 종목 모두 2022년 4분기에 비중이 줄었고, 현금 비중을 늘리는 흐름으로 해석된다. Bill Miller 포트폴리오 개요: 총 약 15억 달러 규모. 1위 Alibaba(3.18%)를 비롯해 Google, Delta Airlines, Amazon, Energy Transfer, Mattel, Taylor Morrison, Expedia, Setsrat(Seritage 계열 표기 불명확), Oventiv 등이 언급된다. 진행자의 개별 종목 평가: - Alibaba: 부채 낮음, 고객 12억 명 이상, 시가총액 2660억 달러, 잉여현금흐름 220억 달러, PFCF 약 13배, 비중 12% 축소. 긍정적. - Google: 기본 펀더멘털 우수, 챗GPT 및 Bing 통합이 첫 실질적 경쟁 위협. PER 약 19로 다소 높다고 평가하며 17~16배 수준을 원함. - Delta Airlines: 장기부채/자본 비율 4.35로 매우 나쁘다고 보고 투자 비추천. - Amazon: 재무 안정성은 양호하나 대규모 투자 국면이며 타 기술주 대비 밸류에이션이 매우 높아 부담. - Energy Transfer LP: PBR 1.2, PER 약 9로 저평가이나 부채비율 1.47로 높음, 부채가 시가총액보다 약 25% 큼. - Mattel: PER 18 대비 3년 매출성장률 5.1%로 높은 편, 부채비율 1.25로 부담. - Taylor Morrison: 부채·밸류에이션 모두 낮아 매력적, PER 약 4, EV/EBITDA 4.1. - Expedia: 밸류에이션 대비 수익성 높고 부채 관리 미흡으로 비추천. - 상위 금융 관련 종목(Seritage 계열 표기): 경기순환적이라 불확실한 시기에는 선호하지 않음. - Oventiv(표기 불명확): 탐사·생산 기업, PER 6.1, 부채 낮음, 비중 25% 축소. 전체 논지: 안정적 기업, 낮은 부채, 양호한 밸류에이션, 단일 종목 5% 이하 분산을 원칙으로 한다. 리스크: 자막 자동인식으로 일부 종목명 오인식 가능성 있음. 과거 포트폴리오 구성과 분기 변동에 대한 해석이며 향후 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 제한적이다.
다듬은 글
where Bill Miller is investing in 2023 he is one of the greatest investors in the world with a multi-decade run of very high performance in this video I'll analyze his top 10 companies so stay tuned until the end to see all of his gems and as always always set the number 10 stocking bills 1.5 billion dollar portfolio is Alibaba with a 3.18 share absolutely all of his top 10 stocks saw a decrease during the last quarter of 2022 which means he is reducing his stock positions and he is increasing his cash reserves Alibaba saw a 12 overall decrease in the position size for me personally Alibaba is an incredible business which has very low debt levels making it quite secure for me personally from a debt risk perspective it's business efficiency is okay-ish the competitive mode is incredible as Alibaba has more than 1.2 billion customers on an annual basis and its valuation is quite low Alibaba has a 266 billion dollar market capitalization while its free cash flow is 22 billion this gives Alibaba a price to free cash flow of around 13.
this means the true business yield is 7.7 percent made sure to watch my full Alibaba stock analysis video here on the channel as a deep dive extensively into the business of the company on spot number nine comes Google with a 3.51 share the position was decreased by about nine percent over the last quarter the biggest current risk for Google is the emergence of chat GPT and its integration with Microsoft search engine Bing this is the first real competitive threat for Google in over 20 years but as the management of Microsoft has stated this new AI technology will not change search immediately Google just like Alibaba exemplifies great fundamentals very low debt levels even higher efficiency and a higher current competitive mode but the valuation is a bit high with a current p e of around 19 I would like it to be around 17 to 16 which historically for Google is the lowest it's been you can watch my full analysis of Google here on the channel the 8th spot is reserved for Delta Airlines with a 3.56 portfolio share while the reduction in position sizing in this case is only 1.8 percent I personally would not invest in Airline stocks as their business fundamentals are very bad for me the long-term debt to equity ratio is 4.35 this is insane The Price to Book and price to earnings are also very high for me to consider it as a potential investment option the number seven position in Bill Miller's portfolio is yet another big tech company and this time it's Amazon with a 3.64 share the decrease here is only 3.3 percent of the position sizing for the last quarter Amazon has yet again entered its heavy expense investment Zone this makes the company analysis quite different and there are specific ways one must evaluate the potential return I go into these methods in a separate Amazon analysis video again here on the channel overall as for some of the basic business fundamentals the company is very secure from a debt management level it has a good efficiency everyone knows Amazon does not have any real and direct competitors but my only negative remark for which I cannot close my eyes is the very high valuation for Amazon in relation to other tech companies like Facebook Google Alibaba or the other big Tech Chinese company 10 cent Amazon is quite expensive on spot number six is energy transfer LP it provides energy related Services the company owns and operates approximately 11 600 miles of natural gas Transportation pipelines and three natural gas storage facilities and Texas and two natural gas storage facilities located in the state of Oklahoma and Texas and 19 830 miles of Interstate natural gas pipeline it also sells natural gas to electric utilities and independent power plants this is quite the value play with a PB ratio of 1.2 meaning for each dollar of equity we pay only 20 cents more the price to earnings also is quite low below 10 sitting at around 9.
the debt of the company is very high with a debt to equity ratio of 1.47 just for comparison the total market capitalization of the company is 40 billion dollars while the total liabilities are around 49 billion this means the debts are about 25 percent larger than the entire company's valuation it is a 3.83 percent share of the portfolio and bill reduced this position by 15 percent more recently on spot number five is Mattel Mattel is an American multinational toy manufacturing and an entertainment company founded in January of 1945.
it is a 3.87 share of the total portfolio and the reduction is eight percent Mattel is trading at a PE of 18 which is a bit too high for a three-year Revenue growth rate of 5.1 percent the business efficiency is above average but the debt level is a bit too high for me with a de ratio of 1.25 on spot number four comes Taylor Morrison home it is one of the largest home building companies in the United States both its debt and valuation is very low the long-term debt to equity is sitting at about 0.5 which is an optimal level another way to analyze the debt is to check the debt to ebitda which in this case is only 1.7 meaning that for less than two years worth of EB da earnings the company would pay off its debts the PE is about four also the Enterprise Value to ebitda ratio is at 4.1 showing again the valuation is very good this would be a very interesting stock to analyze so subscribe to the channel to not miss it out the share size is 4.22 on spot number three comes Expedia group it is an American online traveling shopping company for consumers and small business travel this company saw the smallest reduction with about a 1.7 percent I personally would not invest in the company as the valuation is very high in relation to the earnings and the debt management is not okay spot number two is set for a one main Holdings which is an American Financial holding company I would not want to invest in Bank stocks or financial services company stocks as they are quite cyclical in times of financial distress in the upcoming times of uncertainty I would like to invest in companies which exemplify strong and linear growth the portfolio size for this company is 4.52 percent the top stock is oventive it is a hydrocarbon exploration and production company organized in Delaware it is a 4.78 percent share of the total 1.5 billion dollar portfolio it is again a value play with a PE of 6.1 and very low debt levels what is interesting though is the fact that this company saw the biggest position decrease with a 25 reduction overall Bill Miller invests in stable companies with lower debt levels good valuations and no single company takes more than five percent of his portfolio subscribe for more and make sure to watch all the separate stock analysis here on the channel goodbye for now and until the following video
Comments 0