저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
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아크 인베스트의 캐시 우드가 팔란티어를 다시 매수 중이므로 팔란티어 상승 기대가 크다는 영상. 아크가 최근 팔란티어 120만 주와 430만 주를 추가 매수했고, 아크F ETF까지 편입해 세 개 ETF가 보유하게 됐다는 내용. 2022년 2월 아크가 3700만 주를 약 12달러에 매도하며 약 4억 달러 손실을 봤던 과거를 설명. 당시 정부 사업 둔화와 미국 상업 부문 성장 둔화가 이유였다고 분석. 현재는 GAAP 흑자 전환, S&P500 편입 가능성, AI 플랫폼 수요 급증이 근거로 제시됨. 팔란티어가 AI 수혜 5~10개 기업 중 하나라고 주장. 아크 리서치의 2023년 1월 빅 아이디어 발표 중 AI 섹션(생성형 AI, 독점 데이터 해자, 코딩 생산성 10배, 지식노동자 생산성 등)을 근거로 제시. 금리가 5% 이상인 현 상황에서 시장은 성장보다 흑자를 요구하며, 팽(FANG) 종목이 강세라는 설명. 아크가 향후 몇 주~몇 달간 큰 비중을 실을 것으로 예상하며, 연준이 금리를 동결하면 성장주에 유리하다는 전망. 팔란티어 주가는 최근 7~8달러 횡보 후 10달러 이상으로 올라왔으며, 아크의 과거 매도 패턴(빠른 청산)도 언급.
다듬은 글
ladies and gentlemen she's back arcs Kathy Wood has bought 1.2 million more shares of pound here this comes one week after they bought 4.3 million shares of pound chair the one thing I know about Arc and Kathy Wood after studying them deeply over the past year is that when they have conviction on a ticker they buy and when they lose conviction on the ticker they sell this is what happened in February 2022 when they offloaded 37 million shares of palantir taking a 400 million dollar loss their cost basis was around 22-23 and they were selling at an average price around 12 so they lost low conviction government business was slowing down U.S commercial they didn't see scaling and they got rid of it now a year later as Gap profitability has been guaranteed S P 500 inclusion is on the horizon and the demand for AI platforms has gone exponential and it seems like pouncer is one of the five to ten companies in the world that is going to be able to capitalize on that demand Kathy Wood and Arc are back in palantir and it's just really fun to see them come back because it's like look we we always wanted you here and then you just left and it left us so sad but now she's back Kathy Wood purchases 1 million 263 126 000 shares a pound here this comes after purchasing 4.3 million shares last week The Firm has also added a third ETF Arc F to now hold a pound chair along with RK and Arc W so the 4.3 million shares they bought last week were only included in two ETFs Arc KK and Arc W they now included Arc F which is the finance or the fintech arc fund which is really interesting because before selling in 2022 palantir was one of two stocks the other stock was Unity software that was in all six of the arc ETFs you've got the space ETF you got genomics you got the flagship fund you got fintech and why was Palatine all of those six ETFs because they obviously obviously saw a role for palantir to be included in every single part of the economy which is my bookcase for why I bought palantir and so that's why it was a play to pivotal role in all six of the ETFs uh rkk 912 000 shares that's the flagship fund um 149 000 for RW and 201 697 shares in Arc app she also sold some Shopify I don't know if they're in the green on Shopify I know Shopify has done really well post earnings um they were buying it at like 170 bucks shopify's at 60 bucks I know it went from like 30 to 60 over the past couple months but I'm not sure how much they are making on Shopify or if they're in the green there but they are selling at this point and they're taking that money and they're putting it into pound chair so it seems like they think pound chair is more deeply undervalued this is a good website called Kathy's Arc that takes a look at the Historical prices and averages that Kathy has been loading on certain stocks as you can see early 2021 around February 16th uh February 19th is when they or 18th is when they initiate a position 5.3 million shares at a cost average of 25 it goes all the way up and up and up until we get to a Peak at around 2021 where their cost average is 22.84 cents the price for palantir is 24.50 so they're still Green in terms of the cost they were buying palantir versus the price and they peaked at 26.256 million shares and then they start offloading now the offloading was just 2 million shares on February 15th they had 24.567 million shares down from 26 million so 2 million shares here and there it's like you know maybe they're just rebalancing the portfolio it's not that serious little did we know as an entire community on February 6 17 16th 17th and eventually 18th all the way up until February 20th they were offloading 37 million shares selling them at an average price around uh twelve dollars uh and eventually getting out of the position even though they had a cost basis of around twenty dollars and so they got out of the stock this steep decline that you see is basically in a matter of three days they got rid of all of those shares and none of us expected it right I mean I made some videos saying hey Arc you know we're breaking up it's like I didn't expect this was gonna happen but like it just happened and yeah earnings weren't the best but they had just grown revenues 41 year over year and so we were so confused because like yeah earnings weren't amazing but like 41 Revenue growth year over year is not something bad and that's when a carp did an entire interview like if you remember a full year 2021 earnings that's when they had that like pink background in a white room and carp was speaking taking questions from retail like video questions like it was a great presentation even if the numbers weren't phenomenal and they had announced that they had beat you know they had ER they had earned they were going 41 year over year not many companies in the stock market grow 40 year over year but Arc simply was not convinced as you can see they started buying back 2023 May 10th and they started buying some shares at around those 950 940 prices maybe today she got it in the high nines lows tens so you can imagine her average is around uh High nines maybe low tens uh and she sold at 12.
so technically she bought back in at a better price but pound chair did get to 5.84 cents and you would imagine if they had just realized what they realized now loaded up at 584 they would already have doubled or close to doubled their entire position but I guess at that time pounder was still a mystery because it wasn't Gap profitable or whatever reason they needed to not buy a pound chair now I'm gonna do another video that goes further into this but this is from their big Ideas presentation in 2023 January that they released I just want to go through the headlines of each slide for the AI section because at the end of the day I think if you're buying palantir you're buying it as an AI play I mean there's a lot of reasons to invest in pounds here but I think ark's research team which you know I respect but it's also like at some level you've got some stocks where I just don't see the research kind of playing out but like the genomics fund I see a lot of fancy research it makes a lot of sense their research team ultimately has to be concluding that AI matters I mean they got Tesla right right so they had to have some common sense in understanding and Visionary uh applications of their research to be able to see the future and I think that's why they're investing in palantir 2022 was the year of generative ai ai is increasing the productivity of knowledge workers AI training costs continue to plummet AI hardware and software costs should continue to decline 70 at an annual rate AI is creating explosive demand for training data proprietary data could create moats within different companies and you know in the context of palantir all of the companies they work with have proprietary data so founder goes to a hospital that data is proprietary to the hospital the large language models that pounder is able to create from an AI infrastructure perspective to be essentially implemented into the organization to be able to make decisions more faster effective Etc more productive that is going to be trained on the proprietary data which is which is the differentiator for the llms to even be valuable in the organization and so proprietary data could create a moat palatur doesn't own that data but if they're being trusted to secure that data and then use that data to train their models to be able to help the organization that's where that proprietary data becomes so valuable to a company like palantir AI could lead to a tenfold increase in coding productivity we've seen this with Chaturbate helping people to code cost decline should enable mass adoption of sophisticated AI chat Bots which is basically going on with chat gbt AI should increase a knowledge worker productivity dramatically and then they go on to talk about some of the other stuff in their big Ideas Kathy Wood has also publicly stated that AI is going to create 80 trillion dollars of value look I don't know if it's 80 trillion but the point is it's probably going to be a big number and it doesn't take Kathy Wood to recognize how much more productive AI is going to be how much more deflationary AI is going to be to the entire market so Kathy is back I will and you know the stock price went to uh it held it held above like 10 20 today which I I in my wildest dreams I would not imagine a week after earnings we are above 10 after being stuck in purgatory at seven eight dollars for so long um so it seems like her team really liked Gap profitability seems like her team wants to get in before the S P 500 seems like her team sees the demand for AI and sees that pouncer is going to play a pivotal role and it also seems like they probably think management has started to get their act together from a corporate fiscal responsibility perspective because stock based compensation is redu being reduced significantly and uh they're becoming Gap profitable getting actual net income from operations you know in 2021 you could throw a profitability 20 years into the future and get a 50 billion valuation because the interest rates were zero and so the market was like all right as long as you're gonna get profitable eventually just keep growing at all costs Everything Has Changed now the interest rates are above five percent and the market cannot expect you to be able to grow at those insane rates because the cost of borrowing capital is just more because of the FED fund rate uh the market says hey you got to get profitable you gotta get profitable now you got to show us you can actually maintain your business which is why Fang stocks have have taken off over the beginning of 2023 because those are real cash flow positive companies that produce profits even if they're not as disruptive or Innovative as some of the smaller companies which I would argue you know meta Google Amazon these are very disruptive companies Microsoft they're doing a lot of disruptive things so in that context Arc funds have gone down because the DraftKings of the world the roku's of the world the zooms of the world either they don't produce no profit or they produce very little profit and the growth story has is is over at least until the FED Cuts interest rates back dramatically which probably won't happen for the next two years versus some of the other big tech companies palantir says look we're gonna get Gap profitable and we're going to reduce our stock pick compensation and we're going to be able to grow as strongly as we can I think 18 Revenue growth is sandbagging giving the type of demand Alex carp was talking about in the context of their AIP platform and I think Kathy's looking at that like huh if this is a 20 stock anytime soon and we had an opportunity to buy 10 bucks and the narrative has fundamentally changed from 2022 then maybe this is the right time to get in I expect Arc to be establishing a very heavy position over the next coming weeks uh maybe even next coming months months but you know when they decide they decide and when they're ready to sell they get rid of it it's like a it's like within a couple weeks the position is gone this is what they did with counter and eventually Spotify and when they come in they come in guns ablazing and they start buying a lot so I think if they were pulling the trigger today when it was in the high nines low tens then they want to get in because they think it might be coming to the 11 12 range I don't know if that's gonna happen if it does happen it's gonna be very interesting but I don't know if it will and I think they want to load up now while they think it's presumably cheap let's see what happens if the FED pauses growth stocks theoretically should do well and who knows what the FED Cuts this year growth stocks may do really well so I think Kathy's ready to come back she's ready to establish a position in palantir and it's going to be fun seeing her get back into the sock gonna be a lot of exposure for pounder and if pounder is one of those six companies one of the only stocks in all six of those Arc ETFs it means they think that palantir is an AI play that can affect every industry in the world which is the reason I'm betting on palantir and they that might end up leading them to establish a larger position let me know your thoughts let me know what you think about Kathy Wood buying back into palantir thanks so much for listening watching I'll see you in the next one
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