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Ken Fischer arguably one of the most successful investors on the planet the Fisher Investments founder and chairman Ken I oddly enough I do want to go into this with this Trump trial stuff if you don't mind because it is a drama unfolding and if Charlie gasperino is right there could be a conviction or two to come out of it and yet it could possibly not impact Donald Trump at all he gets elected all the same markets are happy uh voters you know majority of them in this case if that happens would be happy what do you make of all that well first thanks for having me on again Neil second who am I to argue with gas bino I respect him greatly really uh that last part surprises me but go ahead you know I'm always trying to surprise you Neil you know that go ahead third third as I've said to you before the makeup and the split between the popular vote in America and Electoral College split where you don't get anything extra in all but two tiny States for getting a little more uh means that in the swing States uh you could be a good 2% behind in the popular vote and you'll still win the swing States and you can see that if you look at the difference between National right now and polling and the swing States either at the great website 270 to win which in my mind is currently the best website extent for looking at politics at the granular level or at the polling real politics.com which is a great place for looking at polling but the fact is those other questions that you ask like could he end up as president and in jail uh it seems to me that's a re get become an elected president is one thing becoming president being put in jail is another push because I think at one level the Supreme Court would end up saying you know what we're going to do we're going to let him stay his jail time until after he's president uh I just don't see us trying to hobble a president of the United States that's duly elected through the Electoral College that's very interesting um let me get your take then on the markets not long ago on this network you you you had said it's a bull market just enjoy it uh and you were saying that in the middle of a swoon going on we've kind of UNS swooned today notwithstanding it's day by day um but has you still bullish so you know I've studied this and it turns out stocks are volatile and you you got a lot of good down moves in big up years and the reality is all the same stuff that I've said to you uh for quite a long time remains true the fact is election years are bullish right on US Stocks the fact going back to 19 25 is the election years on average are positive 83% of history with 11% return every time since bottom of the Great Depression in 1932 when we've had a negative second year like we had in 2022 the fourth Year's been positive 100% of the time with average turned 15.7% the fact is also years where there's a Democrat incumbent tend to be more front-end loaded than years where there's a Republican incumbent despite the fact that the overall average returns for the two aren't very different and so that helps explain that fast start to the year most people believe that the Republican tends to be more Pro bus right anti-regulatory think the Democrats more pro- regulatory big government oriented um so you know my view is you got little volatility that goes on in the course of a year why would that be surprising uh I I know that the media likes to say right now this is the worst month since October and then I say which October you talking about uh you because October right but but but actually the bottom of the market was October 22 and it's been a great period since October no you're absolutely right about that even though even though we've got some volatility along the way now you stood out in the Crowd by saying you know even though there's this fixation on the Magnificent 7 and Technology maybe it's disproportionately technology you pointed out and had stats to prove it that that is not the the case so it had me thinking maybe my friend Ken Fischer isn't keen on technology but then I was looking at some of your Investments and you're hardly a tech Lite I mean you like Adobe AMD Salesforce uh asmc I guess they make you know equipment that handles chips it's way under over my knowledge base Taiwan semiconductor so they might not be Magnificent Seven stocks but they certainly are technology so you you you do ride this technology wave right so I've been heavy in technology you know since the beginning of this bull market and before but uh the reality is what I think happens in this year as it progresses is like a toggle switch not an onoff switch we move more and more toward value particularly led by energy and more and more toward a broadening now that's predicated on my view that the economy will continue at the GDP level to be somewhat irregularly stronger than most people think which is challenged right now by the fact that the first quarter GDP initial release was weaker than people thought but I think that'll take care of itself as the year moves along and we'll see as the economy appears to be stronger than people expected more emphasis on the value side which has a lack of the quality that the growth side has which is that it can grow when the economy is not much growing Ken when you were last with me I don't want to misquote you but you were talking about this obsession with the Federal Reserve whether it's going to cut rates the environment suddenly got pushed back the last time we chatted now people are saying oh we're only going to have two cuts this year now it's down to none possibly um but you said that the FED doesn't need to cut rates for stocks to soar so do you still stand by that oh sure let let me just point out that the Fed was raising rates well after the bottom of the market in October uh 2022 and at 75 beeps at a crack that's and the fact is none of that stopped the bull market from going the Market's a forward-looking thing and the other feature right now that all the US fed phobic folk uh focus on is that inflation is stickier than they feared or Than People feared or than someone feared I want to point out I always say think Global first and the reality is if you look particularly at Europe but overseas in general inflation is falling faster than people thought and Americans don't much seem to notice that we also suffer from this real reality which is that um we tend to want to think that inflation's going on as long as prices don't reverse to where they were before but we don't reverse prices in Western culture we just stop the future rate of inflation could I ask you a personal question on I know you're a graduate of the California state poly Technic University I don't know if you had back then in your day what we're seeing on college campuses today and it seems to be rampant the these protests are just cropping up popping up everywhere I think we're more than two dozen right now how do you feel about those um and and whether uh you know parents who look at that and Fork over good money for their kids education are seeing that so A and B first I was a public school kid as you point out uh but I did not graduate from calply humbold I went to humbold State College and the day before I graduated they made it humbold State University so I graduated from University I never attended and then more recently they made it now poly humbold so people would think I graduated from poly Technic University I never attended I'm not that technical but the the fact is the fact is said simply as people I think would have read cowp Humbolt has been shut down uh by protesters took over two buildings that I remember well from when I was young but but actually just today they've cleared them out but uh but the camp is still shut down lock down and uh Arcada as a college town has always been a wing nut town I mean when I say that that's false it's been a wing nut town since just about the time I was there I don't think I caused it but just about the time I was there all right you're one of the kids who did good all right uh Ken very good catching up I did want to pick your brain on that what's going on around the country good seeing you Ken fiser
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