저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
투자 위험은 자산의 품질이 아니라 가격에서 비롯된다. 대중이 위험하다고 여기는 것이 오히려 안전할 수 있고, 가격이 오른 자산은 더 위험해진다. 2007년 신용평가사의 AAA 남발과 2008년 위기처럼 '위험이 없다'는 믿음이 가장 큰 위험이다. 미래를 확신하지 말고 확률분포로 사고하며, 모르는 것을 인정하고 존중해야 한다. 거시 예측보다 기업·산업·증권에 대한 분석 우위를 쌓는 것이 성공의 길이다.
다듬은 글
Howard Marks, author of The Essential, emphasizes the critical role of understanding risk in investing. In this video, he explains that investors often misjudge risk due to bias, emotion, and a focus on profits, underestimating potential losses. Marx warns against herd instinct, when people follow trends without assessing the risks, as well as against self-confidence due to past successes.
He advocates a disciplined counter-intuitive approach, emphasizing the need to understand market cycles and maintain a “ safety margin.” Risk is another area you covered in detail in the book, dividing it into three parts: understanding, recognizing, and controlling. Let's look at how you view risk and how investors, as you've mentioned several times , often misjudge it .
Well, first of all, most people equate risk with low-quality assets and safety with high-quality ones. And they still do it. I mentioned the “Nifty 50” as high-quality assets; People thought, you know, there's an old saying, " You can't go wrong buying IBM, " but we documented that you lost 80 to 90 percent of your money.
On the other hand, what about low quality? Is this a source of risk? When I started working with high-yield bonds in '78, I looked at Moody's: "What does a B rating mean?" And Moody's defined a B-rated bond fund as follows . Quote: "does not have the characteristics of a desirable investment." In other words, a low-quality asset cannot be a good investment.
But isn't there a price at which a low-quality asset becomes a good investment? You know, if we were to go out into the parking lot after this session and I were to say to you, "I want to sell you my car." Would you like to buy it? Let's say you like my car, you have money, and you need a car . I hope there is one question you would ask me before you say "yes ": what is the price?
And here Moody's claimed that a bond with a B rating was a bad investment. Well , how about 75 cents on the dollar? How about 50? How about 25? Is there no price? And this is exactly the kind of crowd mistake you can take advantage of. So, risk is not quality. And , you know, most people assume that when something goes up in price, it means people think better of it and it's less risky.
Well, I believe that when something increases in price, it becomes riskier. Most people consider risky what everyone else considers risky . I believe that what everyone considers risky is actually safe because fear causes the price to drop to a level where it becomes safe and potentially profitable.
The riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there is no risk. Risk is perverse. This is the most important thing. This is what the chapter in the book is about: this is the perversion of risk, and this is the belief itself. As in 2007: the belief that there is no risk has made the world risky; and in late 2008, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the belief that there was no future created a great potential future.
And I think, continuing on from what I said, the rating agencies maintain the same rating for a security whether it's worth 100 or 25. It could be triple A at 25. It could be single A at 50. By the way, regarding ratings, you know, we should say a few words about rating agencies . I was speaking at Wharton once, and someone asked me, "What is the role of the rating agencies in this process?" I replied: the role of rating agencies is to make mistakes , because it gives us the opportunity to play against them.
You know, I don't know how many people in this room know how many corporations have AAA ratings today, but the answer is four. How many mortgage obligations were AAA rated during the mortgage wave? Mike tells me—16,000. I believe him. So, is it possible that in a hundred years of economic history, our economy has created only four AAA-rated companies, but in a few years Wall Street was able to create 16,000 AAA-rated mortgage obligations?
And this was probably the biggest money-making opportunity of my life in a short period of time. You know , people ask me, " What's your biggest regret?" And I always answer, "My biggest regret is that I'm not John Paulson." But, you know, his little mutual fund made $16 billion that year in mortgage transactions.
Well, Howard, you had the opportunity to buy a lot of bonds for 10 cents on the dollar. Truth. For 20 cents on the dollar, which are already paid at face value. Yes. And, probably, in large quantities. Let's talk about one of your favorite chapters in the book. Knowing what you do n't know. Good. Revaluation Yes.
of what you are capable of knowing and doing extremely dangerous things instead of working within your capabilities. Why don't we talk about it? Well, listen, I think Mike and I know you'll agree that the investment world is a testosterone-heavy world , where people believe they have to prove themselves.
Well, we, we have women playing a much bigger role now. Well, maybe they have it too. Okay, fine. But people believe that it is their job to know what the future holds. What can you know about what the future holds? That they know what's going to happen next, or if they don't , they have to pretend they do, because if they admit they don't know, they'll be kicked out.
And I believe that it is impossible to know what the future holds. You can, uh, figure out what outcomes are most likely, how likely they are, what alternative outcomes could happen, how likely they are, and what extreme outcomes are possible. Uh , and you can, so to speak, decompose the world into a probability distribution, and I think the best people in the world are the ones who are best at visualizing this probability distribution .
But there is almost nothing in the world that is defined. Everything is uncertain. And Elroy Dimson, a professor at the London Business School, says that risk means: more things could happen than actually will. There are very few things about which only one thing can happen, and yet people tend to invest based on the assumption that they know what will happen.
And I think that's one of the biggest mistakes you can make. You know, Mark Twain said, "It's not what you do n't know that kills you. It's what you know for sure, but actually do n't." And I think that's very, very important. There's nothing wrong with saying, "I don't know," and acting accordingly.
And most people will never be hurt in this way. The real danger is in saying, "I know," acting on the assumption that it's right, and then being wrong. You know, if after this session you and I went to Barstow and we... I could, but first I have to go to Africa. Ah, I understand. OK. Well, if we say we don't know the way, we'll take a map, use the GPS, ask for directions, and drive slowly so as not to take the wrong turn .
But if we think we know, we don't take the card. And not just because we are men and don't ask for directions; not only because we don't use GPS and drive at high speeds because we are overconfident . And if it turns out that you didn't know where to go, you end up somewhere in Africa. So the point is, I think it's really important to know what you don't know, to act on it, to respect what you do n't know.
And most importantly, you don't have to know the future to be a good investor, especially the macroeconomic future. You know, today there is a prevailing belief that markets are driven by macro indicators. And what you need to figure out is when the Fed will let interest rates rise and stop stimulus.
What will happen in Europe regarding its unity, how it will save peripheral countries, and how low China's growth rate will be. That these are the things that can move the market. So , that's what you should be spending your time on. But the interesting paradox is that in the short term, they are the ones who drive the market.
However, I am convinced that you cannot know them. And if you can't know them, then you're wasting your time trying to do so. You should focus on what is knowable. And what you can learn is gaining an advantage over other investors regarding companies, industries, and securities. And this is where hard work and skill will pay off.
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