저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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시장 예측은 불가능하며 현재 위치(사이클 내 포지셔닝)는 파악할 수 있다. 과대평가 자산은 더 오를 수 있으므로 과열≠즉시 하락. 좋은 결정도 결과가 나쁠 수 있고 나쁜 결정도 성공할 수 있으니 과정의 질로 평가해야 한다. 틀리는 것은 불가피하며 타율을 높이는 것이 목표다.
다듬은 글
you know um in your book when you talk about mastering the the Cycles which is this ability to recognize patterns and know when they come back which you develop over years of understanding you did mention that it's important to know your positioning yeah that is to have a good sense of sort of where you're at could you talk a little bit about how uh you think about that sure well first of all what everybody wants to know is what's going to happen tomorrow Mark was down 800 yesterday 550 today what's going to happen tomorrow what's going to happen over the next year over the next three years and the answer is nobody knows and uh I don't believe in forecasts another one of my heroes uh John Kenneth gallb said we have two kinds of forecasters the ones who don't know and the ones who don't know they don't know and uh I am firmly in the first Camp I don't know what's going to happen in the future and what I say is we never know where we're going but we sure as hell ought to know where we are it may be challenging to predict the future it shouldn't be that hard to predict the present and if we can as if if we can think in terms of a a normal trend line perhaps for the market or a a a a level which represents fair value and then the fact that the market oscillates around it then clearly it's very important to know where in that oscillating pattern we are because if this is fair value and we're here then clearly the expected value the expected performance from here should be lower than the historic average the historic average was compiled by buying at prices all along the cycle but clearly if we're at the peak of a cycle our prospective return is lower than historically it has been on average and it's harder to make money than it historically has been and easier to lose money whereas if we're buying here when prices are depressed then the expected value is higher than the historic average and it's easier to make money and harder to lose so it makes a profound difference and I think it's extremely important that we figure it out we don't know where we're going but where we are has implications for where we're probably going eventually now the word eventually is very important because if I tell you we're over that the that the market is high in its cycle and is overpriced one of the most important things for you to realize is that overpriced and going down tomorrow are not synony and so if you think about the market fluctuating this way around fair value then when it goes above the line it's overpriced when it goes higher it's more overpriced higher more overpriced and markets which are overpriced tend to become more overpriced before eventually they reach a top and turn down so it it's it's a big mistake to think that overpriced and going down to tomorrow or synonymous you can you can say that's overpriced you can sell it and it goes up another 20% you feel like an idiot and and you get fired by half your clients um but that doesn't mean that it was wrong and and uh it's I'm straying a little bit from your question no but that's okay I'll bring it back to a couple of things but but you know all you can do in this world is do what's right you can't necessarily do what's going to work tomorrow I when I started at Wharton 55 years ago this month and the first lesson I remember learning at Warden was that you can't tell the quality of a decision from the outcome now this is counterintuitive and in fact perplexing and most people who who are not analytical or insightful would say well of course you can good decisions work bad decisions fail but the truth of the matter is that in the world there are a lot of things that are unpredictable and random and as a result good decisions fail all the time and bad decisions succeed all the time and we all know people we say oh he he was right for the wrong reason or he was lucky or he was unlucky and and so you you can't you can't think of the world as a place where good decision good outcome bad decision bad outcome doesn't work that way you know Richard fman the physicist said that physics would be much harder if electrons had feelings and the truth is that markets there is no such thing as a market there's no place it might be a building or it might be virtual what is a market it's a bunch of people who buy and sell and those people do have feelings and so they don't always act in a way which is predictable they don't always act in a way which is right sometimes they do things which are counterintuitive to predict the movement of the market then at the time when people do things which are unpredictable you have to be able to predict it which by definition you can't which is a which is a good reason why we have the business judgment rule imagine putting these people together uh so the process and kind of how you came about it is really speaks to the quality but the outcome you could be wrong because of a whole bunch of other things sure we see it all the time here well if I can take one more minute the the next to last I will yes the next to last power the next to last paragraph in the book quotes from Peter Bernstein who was a great uh Market Observer and sage and he said um the future is not ours to know but it helps to know that being wrong is inevitable and normal not some terrible tragedy not some awful failing in reasoning not even bad luck in most instances being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future now you know imagine if you were a baseball player you have five trips to the plate and you make out on three of them and you kill yourself the point is that very few you know uh uh Ted Williams got two hits and every five trips and he was the best in history nobody gets sick three out of five or four out of five and it's the same in investing none of us get it right all the time all we can do is have a better batting average than others if you have a better batting average then you'll be a superior investor well in baseball if you bat uh 333 it's Hall of Fame you're exactly so uh maybe the investors out there ought to think about you lose seven don't don't worry about it because you'll win three right
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