저자: 하워드막스 · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스의 투자 철학과 저서 'The Most Important Thing'을 소개하는 영상. 결론: 투자는 가치와 가격의 괴리, 리스크 관리, 시장 사이클 역행 전략에 달려 있다. [막스 소개] 오크트리 캐피털은 약 1,200억 달러 규모의 대체투자(신용·실물자산·사모/공모 주식)를 운용한다. 막스는 고객 대상 오크트리 메모로 잘 알려져 있고, 워런 버핏도 그의 메모를 즉시 읽는다고 언급했다. [투자 철학] 고PER 우량주보다 저평가되어 절망 상태인 자산을 선호한다. 잘되면 상승 여력이 크고 잘못돼도 하방이 제한적인 자산이 대상이다. 저품질 주식도 가격이 충분히 낮으면 수익성이 있을 수 있다. [가치와 리스크] 근본 가치 분석이 필수이며, 역발상 성향과 인내심이 함께 필요하다. 케인스의 말처럼 비합리적 시장은 생각보다 오래 지속될 수 있다. 리스크는 식별하고 통제하는 것이지 완전히 회피할 수 있는 것이 아니다. [시장 사이클] 시장은 열광과 절망, 탐욕과 공포 사이를 진자처럼 오간다. '이번에는 다르다'가 가장 위험한 말이라는 템플턴 인용을 강조한다. 낙관이 지배할 때 가격과 밸류에이션이 높아지고 리스크 인식이 약해진다. [역발상 원칙] 모두가 좋아하는 것은 피하고, 모두가 싫어하는 것을 사라. 1991년 하이일드 채권 공포 시기가 좋은 매수 기회였다는 예시를 든다. 다만 인기 자산을 고점에서 사는 것이 가장 위험하다. [운과 리스크 관리] 좋은 수익률이 실력이 아니라 운일 수 있어 투자자 성과만으로 실력을 판단하기 어렵다. 리스크 관리는 재난 시 손실을 줄이는 보험과 같다. [자산/종목 언급] 구체적 종목·지수·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 일반 원칙 설명 위주. [조건/리스크] 영상은 일반론이며 특정 시점의 시장 판단이나 목표가는 제시하지 않음. 저서 내용에 대한 소개 성격. [출연자 전망] 특정 자산 전망 없음. 장기적 관점의 시장 사이클 경계론 수준.
다듬은 글
oak tree Capital Management is the largest distressed dead investor in the world and Howard Mark serves as chairman and co-founder of the company in the world of Finance he is well known for the oak tree memos that he sends to clients these memos provide clients with information regarding investment strategies and insights into the state of the economy in 2011 he published the book The most important thing Uncommon Sense for the thoughtful investor Marx has been in the business world for quite some time even Warren Buffett who views the most important thing as that rare valuable book speaks highly of him in addition Buffett has admitted that he reads one of the Marx's memos as soon as he sees it and these letters are made public multiple times a year on the oak tree Capital website what is Oak Tree Capital after more than 25 years of experience in the investment banking sector Marx launched oak tree capital in 1995.
today the organization is responsible for the management of alternative Investments totaling 120 billion dollars these Investments include credit and real assets as well as private and public shares in spite of the fact that many other companies returns were severely damaged by the fourth quarter sell-off his closed-in funds achieved a gain of nine percent in the previous year when it comes to investing Marx isn't as picky as other successful investors in point of fact he stays away from them as a general rule since they traded High multiples and everybody has high expectations of them both of which in his opinion makes them dangerous Investments instead he seeks what other people believe to be risky which include inexpensive undervalued assets that are rich in such a state of despair that they offer a significant upside potential if things go well and a limited negative potential if things go poorly the majority of the content of the book focuses on risk including how to identify it and exert control over it but in no way does it address how to prevent risk the most important things although every investor May Come Away with a different opinion on what is the most important thing Marx believes that it all starts with value and how it's related to pricing just as high quality stocks can be dangerous if acquired at the wrong time low quality stocks might be a profitable investment if the price is low enough in order to determine what they consider to be the true worth of the underlying asset invest sisters like Marx have to get their hands dirty and conduct extensive fundamental research even when equities are selling at prices that are a significant amount lower than their fundamental worth one still has to have a strong contrary and tendency in order to buy rather than causing difficulties for ourselves by purchasing something that other people consider to be junk or that is about to fail the majority of us find that we are happiest when we buy what other people like and simply go with the flow however in the words of the American Author Will Rogers you've got to step out on a limb occasionally because that's where the fruit is the key to success is in taking calculated risks if you purchase an item for less than it is now worth and incorporate what Warren Buffett refers to as a margin of safety into the transaction then you'll have a favorable risk to reward ratio above it has been an investor for many years and has always adhered to this philosophy you need to have a contrary and tendency but you also need patience because even if you're correct about your Viewpoint you could be wrong about the time John Maynard Keynes a prominent Economist cautioned that irrational Market Behavior might persist for far longer than the majority of us are able to maintain our financial stability also the question that has to be answered is who feels positive about making this investment at this time and who doesn't the price may go up or down in the future depending on whether or not more people end up liking it in the future or whether or not it becomes less popular since investing is really a popularity battle it's riskiest to acquire an asset right when it's at the top of its popularity at the time all favorable information and Views have already been included in its prime Christ and there is no longer any possibility of new purchasers emerging investing in a commodity at a time when there is little demand for it is both a foolproof and possibly lucrative strategy after some period of time its popularity and consequently its price can only move in One Direction also keep an eye on the different asset classes for which they're having conferences and the number of individuals that are going conferences that are unable to find attendees or a warning flag it is in your best interest to take part in auctions where there are just one or two purchasers rather than hundreds or thousands either you want to buy Goods before they've been found or you want to acquire them after there has been a ShakeOut keep track of the pattern even while getting in at a low price and getting out at a high price should be your goal you should be aware of how Market Cycles work the market is similar to a pendulum in that it swings between extremes of elation and despair greed and fear and overvaluation and undervaluation the most crucial thing to note is that it is almost never in the middle we have a propensity both individually and collectively to believe that the future will be very similar to the recent past when prices in a market have been training upward for an extended period of time we tend to think that Trend will continue when enthusiasm takes control we start to believe that we're in some kind of a new age and that stock prices will continue to rise indefinitely this leads to poor investment decisions the phrase This Time It's Different is the most perilous phrase in the English language according to John Templeton who was also a very successful investor the important thing to remember is that it never changes because Cycles tend to correct themselves it's important to keep track of where we are in the cycle and whether or not the risk is being priced appropriately when individuals are optimistic stock prices are high and valuations are high there is a good possibility that they're not paying sufficient attention to risk or the cycle place your wager now when no one else will if everyone in a football game likes the favorite and wants to bet on it the point spread will widen to the point where it'll be extremely unlikely for the team regardless of how excellent it is to be able to cover the spread put your money on the underdog and take the opposite side of the bed also if everyone is too afraid of junk bonds to purchase them then you'll be able to acquire them at a yield spread then not only overcompensates for the real credit risk but also creates the condition for them to be the greatest performing fixed income sector in the whole world the most important thing to remember is that you should always strive to take the opposite position of everyone else while discussing a topic If Everyone likes it you should sell it but if nobody likes it you should purchase it according to a quote attributed to Warren Buffett the less care that others manage their business with the more care with which you should conduct your own it's not necessary for you to be scared when others are afraid yet you should be afraid when others are not afraid it is often believed that fear and greed are what Drive Market activity but according to Mark the impression is driven by greed or fear at any given point in time at the beginning of 1991 everybody was terrified of high-yield bonds due to the fact that only the very finest bonds could be issued at the time purchasers did not need to conduct any credit analysis because the market did it for them automatically its widespread anxiety led to the establishment of stringent requirements but when investors lack fear they're willing to purchase anything as a result the effort of an intelligent investor is significantly enhanced last but not least you have to have an understanding of the part the chance or luck plays because the price might go up for entirely different reasons than the ones you predicted you can get a fantastic return on your investment just by having a little bit of luck on your side if you only look at it investors returns it's hard to determine whether or not there are successful investors since you have no way of knowing how much risk they took to acquire those gains like buying home insurance risk management May save you a lot of money in the event of a disaster if you don't have it and your house burns down or the market crashes you'll be out of a lot of money if you believe that all books on investing are the same you should look for a copy of Marx's works even if his opinions won't appeal to everyone yeah that's all for 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