저자: 미상 · 외국인
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AI 열풍은 실제 기술이지만 현재 시장은 역사적 규모의 거품 국면이라는 주장. 그랜섬(Jeremy Grantham)의 과거 버블 적중 사례를 인용하고, 철도 버블·2000년 닷컴 버블(아마존 2002년 -92%)을 비유로 제시. 매그니피센트 7은 AI 경쟁으로 독점적 이익 시대가 끝나는 국면이라고 봄. 생존 전략으로 미국 기술주 비중 축소, 비트코인 보유 축소, 비미국 주식·채권·현금·금(5~10%) 분산을 권고. 출연자 발언 중 특정 종목의 단기 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, welcome to... Here's a summary of our in-depth information for today. Okay, today we're going to talk about something called... He's arguably the hottest thing in the investment world right now. That's the AI craze. Everywhere you look now, people are talking about how amazing it is.
That's the top part, right? But there's one question... What's very interesting and a little creepy is, or maybe... Actually, we're sitting right in the heart of the world right now. In the midst of the biggest financial bubble ever. History, I suppose. Okay, wait a minute. Let's open this notebook and slowly find the words.
Let's answer together. First of all, I would like... Let me introduce you to Grandpa Jeremy Grantham. Yes, my grandfather was a legendary investor. What was incredibly insightful was his prediction of the bubble crisis. The world's major predictions have always been accurate, haven't they? Whether it was the Japanese bubble of the 1980s, the Wigkrit.com crisis in 2000, or even the 2008 Supaporn crisis, he had foreseen it all.
Grandpa Jeremy openly admitted that AI is a technology that will truly revolutionize the world. But from an investment perspective, he issued a warning. It's solid, I can say we're currently facing a bubble storm. That giant bar of soap is incredibly dangerous! Now let's look at the difference between current trends.
Let's get excited about reality on this side. Ordinary investors are now terrified of missing out. Many technical stocks are soaring and making new highs almost every day; anyone who doesn't buy is definitely missing out. But at the same time... Let's acknowledge the reality that Grandpa was trying to bring up.
Our common sense dictates that the statistics speak for themselves. The statistics alone show that the price is soaring. The signal is now showing an unusually strong, out-of-this-world force. The warning light is flashing red rapidly, indicating that. That the bubble is inflating wildly because... So the point isn't about the bubble.
Is it real? It all depends on whether we can survive. It's because of some misconceptions. One thing I want to clarify first is... Many people often think that soap bubbles must... It resulted from a scam or a fraudulent company. It's definitely not a real business, but it's true. Even more frightening is the bursting of the bubble.
The greatest catastrophe often befalls the technology that exists. Being real, being good, and being able to truly change the world are all different. If so, it's because the idea is so great that I couldn't refuse. Okay, that's it, like right now, everyone. They thought it was definitely going to be a good idea, so they all rushed to pool their money together.
They bought it at a price far exceeding its true value. Eventually, when the price could no longer be pushed up, the bubble burst. It just popped out, even though the technology itself... While development continues, to get a clearer picture, let's take a time machine back to review the lessons. Let's think about the railroad boom of the 1800s.
Look, back then the change from riding in horse-drawn carriages... Slow and steady is like a speeding train; that's the essence of it. That was a major world revolution, wasn't it, everyone? Knowing that trains are the future, you know what will happen. Investors are flocking to build a railway over the area.
It's all mixed up and chaotic, with people pouring money into buying shares like crazy. Being blind to the consequences leads to the bubble bursting. Suddenly, many investors lost everything. Ultimately, trains did indeed change the world, but... Investors back then didn't get any money because... They bought it at an ridiculously high price.
In the world of investing, there's a disaster equation. There's one point, which is about taking... World-changing technology combined with excitement. At the extreme level, the result is destruction. Try comparing. Look at this picture from the train era and the internet boom of the year 2000; it's exactly the same!
Grandpa Jaramee brought it up. Here's a shocking example of statistics: Amazon, which is now the king of e-commerce. He's changed the world, you know? In 2002, his stock plummeted by 92%! Yes, 92%! Before gradually recovering. Since you've arrived, remember not to get confused. Between the terms "excellent technology" and...
The concept of a fair price for a stock is a completely different matter. Okay, now let's take a closer look at the stock group. Let's take a look at some of the most influential people of this era. That 's the giant group Magnificent 7 or Max 7. Over the past 10 years, they've... It was their golden age of profit.
Why has it skyrocketed and is so easy to find? Oh, really? Well, that's because each company is different. It's like a king who monopolizes his own kingdom. Apple controls mobile phones, Google controls search engines, and Meta controls social media. Because they don't have to compete with anyone, setting prices is easy, and the profits are high.
It's incredibly high, but the images from the past... That heartbreaking romance is over, everyone. The intense shift begins when the seven giants are about to jump down and strike. They're fighting on the same battlefield, which is AI, against a king who used to sit comfortably on his throne. This turned into gladiators fighting to the death.
The company is prepared to burn through investments worth hundreds of thousands of dollars annually. Millions of dollars to win first place. Grandpa Jeremy made a funny but vivid comparison about what they're up to. He's smashing things like a gorilla to show off. Who do you think is the leader? Of course, it's...
This competition is so fierce and bloody... This will cause the previously easily achievable profit margins to shrink. The picture is clear: the era of easy profits is over. Yes, when the situation started to get really scary. Here, we need to recognize the danger zones that we should be aware of. Back away quickly!
The truth is, it's secretly harsh. The downside is that the gurus or advisors on Wall Street will never tell us to sell. It's about the shares, because if we sell, they won't get any profit. Their business practices would be ruined, so we had to... Rely on yourself. This is something you should avoid right now.
First, American stocks, especially tech giants. Many of the big players sell because their prices are excessively high. It would be extreme if the bubble burst; the value could disappear in an instant. More than half, and number 2 is crypto. From Grandpa's perspective, this is an asset that... There's no basis for it; it's just conscription.
It's pure profit if the market has these kinds of problems. That would be the first thing to fall and lie on the ground. So how can we protect our money? The key is that we need to build a protective shield. Give our portfolio diversification the risk. Yes, this shield consists of four simple parts.
The first part is stocks outside the United States, such as emerging markets. New European or Japanese brands, which are now cheaper. Much better than the American side, well worth it. Part 2, bonds, are riskier. This is a safe zone; you're guaranteed interest of around 5%, good for relieving stress during stock market volatility.
The third part is cash; keep your ammunition stockpiled and wait for the right moment. Wait for the market to crash, then go in and buy up the cheap stocks. Finally, allocate 5-10% of your money to holding precious metals. For example, gold is kept as a safeguard during times of crisis. Or inflation, to give a clearer picture.
It's ready to go and can be used in real life. Let's take a look. Example portfolio management plan for salaried individuals. Let's talk about our situation this month. For example, let's say originally we... My risky portfolio consists entirely of 100% American tech stocks. While some might think you can get rich quick from AI, let me tell you, if the bubble bursts, half your money will be gone in an instant.
Let's think immediately, we need to switch to... My portfolio is ready for battle, with about 60% diversified into global equity funds that aren't concentrated in just one sector. The US shifted another 30% to bond funds. Or, you could put it in a deposit account to earn guaranteed interest and hold some gold for another 10%.
That kind of portfolio might be suitable for the current period. You wo n't make spectacular profits, but remember my words. When the big storm arrives, we'll survive and even have... I have plenty of cash to go shopping for great deals at bargain prices! Okay, and we've now reached the final page of...
I've finished summarizing this notebook; let's review it. Let's briefly review the key points: 1. AI is definitely real, but investors are hesitant. It has become a bubble with sky-high prices. Two giant stocks, MA 7, are entering a phase... A war of burning money to seize supremacy. The era of monopolistic profits is over.
No experts are coming. It warns us when the market is about to crash, so we have to make decisions. Manage your own money, and our four ways to survive are to reduce costs. American tech stocks are reducing crypto holdings and diversifying into other portfolios. Non-US stocks, bonds, cash, and gold are alternatives.
So, how was the summary of the key points? The information presented today is hoped to provide a clearer picture and understanding. It's easier this way if you like good, informative content like this. Don't forget to subscribe, like, and save this video! Remember this reminder and share it with your loved ones.
Yes, we will get through this crisis together. Remember that. Well, the soap might not break tomorrow, but you... Are you ready for the day when music drips? I must take my leave now. Goodbye.
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