저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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AI 관련 주식시장이 버블 상태라고 주장하며, 역사적으로 버블 붕괴 시 큰 폭락이 있었다(닷컴 버블 당시 아마존 92% 하락 언급). 주가는 장기적으로 펀더멘털로 회귀하므로 과열 자산 추격을 피해야 한다고 강조. 미국 성장주 특히 기술주 회피, 미국 외 시장·채권·현금 비중 확대 권장. 군중 행동과 펀드매니저의 커리어 리스크 때문에 버블이 지속된다는 논지.
다듬은 글
Hello, today we're going to delve into the topic of... Every investor will encounter this, and may even harbor some hidden anxieties. Deep down, what they're holding onto is the desire to survive while waiting. It seems like there's a bubble in the stock market right now. The AI technology craze is really taking off, isn't it?
Huge amounts of money are being invested. Investment flows in continuously, to the point that many people... You might start wondering, "Hmm, maybe..." We're definitely inside a bubble in this clip. In this presentation, we will decipher survival strategies. Let's talk about the survival of legendary investors, which will be told through...
Illustrated in a sipping style, making it easy to understand. It's incredibly enjoyable to listen to, but I guarantee you'll gain valuable knowledge. Something that can definitely be applied to your own portfolio. Go to sleep. First, let's get to know Grandpa. Jamie, let's talk about Grand Tam first, just so you know.
He's not a guru who sits around predicting the future. In a more informal way, he is a data historian. Yes, he has experience managing hundreds of thousands of baht. A million dollars, and more importantly, he was able to take it. They've survived every major bubble burst. Never once, whether it was soap bubbles...
The real estate crisis in Japan in 1989, the 2000 Crisis.com, or even the 2008 property crisis—his secret wasn't magic. It was n't magic or luck, but it was... Understanding statistics and human nature. That's the real point. Now let's look at the first philosophy of... My grandfather, when it comes to investing, is a typical investor.
Going out often leads to stress because one is constantly focused on... Is that a daily chart? The small figures are fluctuating. The constant fluctuations cause headaches for Grandpa. Grantham suggests that in order to survive in this world... For long-term investment, we need to have this kind of mindset.
The butterfly, that is, taking a step back. Staring at a screen and looking at the overall economic picture from a particular perspective... Broadly speaking, it's better to avoid letting ideas spontaneously. Freedom is like going for a walk in the park to clear your head. It's a relief when we're not bogged down in the details.
In the short term, we will be able to make more decisive decisions. Yes, and that monster we call it. To visualize what a bubble looks like, consider the current AI trend compared to the past. The rise of the train or the internet boom in the past were key points. An important misconception is that bubbles don't actually exist.
It's not always due to deception, but... It stemmed from a new idea that was simply too brilliant. An idea that everyone knew needed to change. It's definitely a global phenomenon, because it's so amazing, that's why the marketers are involved. They were incredibly excited and rushed to pour their money into a pile.
Starting too quickly, going too far, ultimately leads to loss. It bursts through reality like a balloon. It's been blown until it's taut, just waiting for the day it can't take it anymore. It shook and then broke apart, that's what I was talking about. The bursting of the bubble has set historical records.
One particularly alarming figure is 92%, which goes back to the .com era in the year 2000. Back then, the internet was real and it changed everything. Is that really true? But do you know that...? Amazon, a favorite stock in the market at the time, was once manipulated to sky-high prices. When the bubble burst, Amazon's stock price plummeted by 92%, practically leaving nothing behind.
Its value was lost before it gradually took time to recover. The fact that he later rose to greatness is the role he plays. It's a very expensive lesson, even if the company's sales are high. No matter how great something is, it does n't mean we should go in. I bought it at an ridiculously high price, did you see?
Yes, soap bubbles are not magic or anything like that. It's a coincidence, but it's a certainty. It's mathematics; past statistics clearly show it. It's very common for bubbles to occur in the stock market. Soap typically reappears in a cycle, on average, once every 36 years. It's a cycle. A statistically normal event for all investors.
It's unavoidable during this period. This is about investing in life, and to help you understand. To make alarm systems easier to understand, let's learn a little about 2 sigma, or standard deviation level 2. Let's translate it into English... For ordinary people, it's just a statistical phenomenon.
It's extremely rare, like a dangerous zone. The mathematics is flashing a warning light for us. It means the market is currently in a good mood. It went too far, becoming extremely volatile, and the stock price... Breaking free from the conventional database norms of the past. That's a very, very far-fetched idea of madness.
Grandpa Grantum compared this to a picture. To put it very simply, he said it was the stock price. In the short term, it's like throwing a feather in. In a whirlwind, the storm will blow the road and the birds will be blown away. It's impossible to predict how far it will drift away. No one in the world can answer with 100% accuracy whether the stock market will go up or down tomorrow, but in the long term...
Stock valuation is regulated by law. The one certainty is gravity. No matter how high the bird's feathers are blown away... Eventually, when the storm subsides, gravity will pull it down. Stocks that are overvalued always fall to the ground. In the end, it will all be pulled back to its value. The fundamental principle is always the same: press the iron.
So, you know, foreseeing the future before others does. There's an emotional price to pay as well. Let's try to imagine what it feels like to have to walk away. From a party that was getting wild and fun... Look at this: in 1999, Grandpa Nsum warned about FSB.com and sold his shares. Do you know what the result was?
Well, the stock market unexpectedly kept going up, which is why he was short. They felt they had missed the boat and lost half of their customers. It was quite a challenge, but his patience paid off. It's enormous, because when the bubble really bursts, son. Those who still trust and tolerate him remain.
Escaped disaster and was able to protect prosperity. It's perfectly fine to keep it accumulating for the long term. Many people probably have a question in their minds here: "Okay, so what now?" Why do big financial institutions rarely... They issued a warning to general investors to sell their shares first.
The secret to the bubble bursting lies in the word. It's about career risk, or being a careerist. Simply put, fund managers are afraid of it. I got fired. Just think about it, what if he ordered it? If they sell their shares and the market continues to rise, they will... I suddenly became an idiot and lost my job while...
Others are getting rich, so what's safe? The ultimate goal for their careers is... They started a trend and told everyone to keep holding the shares. That's right, John, a world-class economist. Maine once described this distorted system. That's a very classic phrase, he said, "for..." For professionals, it's better to fail along with the pack.
It's better to clash than to risk thinking differently and failing alone. This is the point of contention that forces people to... In Vasita, you have to ride the roller coaster of madness. This continues indefinitely, and everyone who misses will plummet down. They inevitably fell off the cliffs together.
Okay, but wait, the good news is that in... As ordinary retail investors like us... We have an advantage over global funds. No, that's because we don't have a boss to boss us around. Go for it! We don't need to take the risk. Therefore, we have complete freedom when it comes to our work. The focus will be on value investing and perseverance.
Be patient, and most importantly, be able to hold onto your cash while you wait. We can take our time and not worry too much. I was so excited I couldn't resist running to the rhythm of the music that Wall Street was playing, I just couldn't dance a little bit. Okay, now that we understand the whole picture...
Now let's look at the practical guide, shall we? One of the most important rules to avoid for safety is: never follow trends. Or, in crazy hype like the AI trend that's currently at its peak, secondly, avoid growth stocks in the US, especially in certain sectors. Technology prices are inflated to an inflated level, and there are three crucial points to remember: don't turn a blind eye.
If you close your eyes and walk among the crowd, it's easy to spot them. You start to see taxi drivers and barbers. Or people who had never been interested in stocks before started talking about them. And when did you two start recommending the same stock? That's it, the red light signals that it's time.
We have to run away now, since these things are forbidden. So what should we do instead? This is the solution. It's very practical; try to organize your portfolio. Invest in something like a lush, shady garden. It's safer this way. First, diversify your investments. Consider investing outside the US; look at emerging markets.
Or the Japanese market, where prices are still reasonable. More interesting than option 2 is holding bonds with... Be financially stable to receive a guaranteed return, and the third and essential point is to keep some cash aside. Yes, cash is like a good umbrella. It's a rainy day, which helps protect us and...
Keep your best ammunition ready to snap up good deals at cheap prices. When the bubble burst, before we parted ways, let's reconnect. Let's review and summarize the key points from the entire content. Let's try again, 1. Step back and look at the bigger picture. In a butterfly economy, don't obsess over charts.
Short-term scenario 2: Be wary of true sigma bubbles. 3: Trust the laws of gravity. Money will eventually bring the price back to reality. 4. Recognize copycat behavior. The crowd at Wall Street and 5 calmly dispersed. Manage risks wisely and be prepared to hold cash reserves. Keep this in mind always; it's a great reminder.
It's something every investor carries with them. At this point, I'd like to leave everyone with one final question. Try reviewing your investment portfolio again. Just so you know, we're prepared. We're going to escape the next stock market bubble. Or, remember that knowledge and mindfulness are important.
Not blindly following the crowd would be... The best shield for all of us. Yes, and if you like content that presents difficult-to-understand information... To make it easy to understand and visualize like this, please like and subscribe. Like, save, share, and forward to your friends, and don't forget!
Do n't forget to subscribe to show your support! Yes, we can maintain our financial health. We'll be stronger together, and see you again in the next chapter. Find more interesting information next time. Goodbye for today!
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