저자: Stockology Insider · 외국인
다듬은 글
Meta's aggressive push into subscriptions is nothing more than a desperate cash grab as their core advertising business slows down and matures. Zuckerberg's massive AI spending spree is burning tens of billions with very little proven return and the bulls are dangerously overestimating how profitable these bets will actually become.
It comes down to 3.5 billion users. How are you going to monetize it? And I think the subscription they've obviously played around with it. This is what investors want to see. Now it's about how do you monetize the user base? And look, this is really this is not the end step. It's just an interim step as they integrate more and more AI into that user base.
That's going to be the monetization. I think that's something where the stock is not reflecting still. I think some of the revenue opportunities that we'll see over the coming year. Now you got 900 out perform. You mentioned investors want to see it. Do users want to see it? Are they going to be willing to pay it?
We're only talking about what seems to be according to some of the reporting here three to four dollars a month for a sub for Insta, Facebook and WhatsApp. Yeah, you start to get any sort of adoption, you start to now look at revenues that could be up two, three, four percent and then so on as the adoption curve increases.
So I think it's something that investors are not really factoring in that they were going to do something like this. I think from a timing perspective it's maybe come earlier. It shows a confidence in terms of their ability to roll it out. And look, this is going to just be a continued narrative whether it's Microsoft, whether it's Meta, whether it's Apple.
How are you going to monetize AI? Chip companies have shown how they're going to monetize just like software. Yeah, but you're you're talking you okay, that's interesting how you say it it it reflects a confidence on their part to to do this. Some may look at this and and suggest that it it shows their you know late a little late to the the game on how they're going to monetize AI beyond their their core ad business and you're you're just throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks.
Because Zuckerberg apparently at the shareholder meeting also said, or at least he opened the door for a cloud business. Is that a a moonshot or is that legit? Look, I think cloud, obviously that could be maybe a bit more of a moonshot, but to me it's okay. How do you slowly diversify away on the advertising?
That advertising they're going to that's going to continue to be obviously bread and butter, but you look at what they're doing. It's going to continue be diversification and I I view that as a positive because their install base is unmatched. So, as they monetize it, you know, part of our bullishness in terms of, you know, where I talked about $900 and ultimately, you know, what what could be higher.
This is a key prove it year for Zuckerberg and Meta. It's a step in the right direction after obviously a quarter where it was all about half-axed and obviously that was a more of a dog ate the homework type of conference call. Well, let me ask you this cuz as you were talking I was looking at stock.
So, it's down almost 4% um year-to-date. How much pressure do you think they're feeling inside that building? And how much pressure is he feeling himself, Zuckerberg, to deliver something that's going to wow the market and wow investors back into the name? Because outside of Microsoft, which is is down uh as well uh on the year, there everything else seems like it's a pretty good story to tell.
Outside of these two. Pressure's definitely building because when you're spending 120, 130 billion to from from a cap ex perspective, they need to now show. And I think that the wake-up call was the last earnings call. Because when you contrast that with Amazon and obviously others, for Meta, that's kind of put in Meta in the investor penalty box.
You guys start to show it. Next two or three quarters, this stock's either at 750, 800 or it's where it is or lower. The point is this is kind of a fork in the road period in my opinion for Meta, but a step in the right direction in terms of the roll out this side. keep finding themselves in the penalty box.
You know what I'm saying? Like it wasn't just after this last quarter. It was like two quarters ago they were in the penalty box with a major penalty before. Like they can't stay out of the box. How do they stay out of the box? Look and I think for them that's that's the quagmire because they're trying to really turn around uh a cargo ship in a river.
I mean they're trying to make a massive transformation while investors are obviously watching every single move. When you think about the hyperscalers or chip companies, they're kind of front and center in terms of ones that are going to benefit from AI. Meta, we'll see Apple in a few weeks. You look at Microsoft when it comes to you know one where it's still guilty till proven innocent.
These are the names now that now need to show. It's not just about talk. It's about execution. Real quick. Real quick. Apple, new new high. You just mentioned WWDC. We'll be there. So that that stock's up. And how much pressure is on Salesforce tonight with with their earnings? I mean if you think from a pressure level, if there's pressure on Meta, there's even double the pressure on Benny Off and Salesforce because it comes back to back against the wall.
I think they ultimately start from an agent force perspective. Can you get that over you know ultimately to a point where it could be 3-4% of revenue? But this is a prove it period. Look at Zscaler. They're here. Look at CrowdStrike and Palo Alto on the other side. That's why fork in the road period for tech. Key few months ahead. Key earnings night ahead for software.
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