저자: Nugget · 외국인
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결론: 금리 상승으로 비트코인과 주식시장이 함께 하락할 수 있으며, 부채 부담이 큰 구조에서 리스크가 커질 수 있다는 진단. [증시 급락과 변동성] 다우 등 미국 주요 지수가 큰 폭으로 하락해 트럼프 당선 이후 최악 수준의 하루였다고 언급. VIX가 11에서 22로 며칠 만에 두 배 뛰어 변동성 확대를 짚음. [금리와 채권] 미국 10년물 금리가 3%를 넘어 작년 2.4%대에서 3.2%로 올라, 채권이 더 매력적이 되면서 주식 등 위험자산 투자가 줄 수 있다고 설명. 미국 금리가 내년 3.5% 이상까지 오를 수 있다는 견해 제시. [부채와 주택시장] 전 세계 부채가 2008년 금융위기 때보다 높은 수준(약 250조 달러)이라고 주장. 80만 달러 주택담보대출 예시에서 금리가 4.1%에서 7.1%로 오르면 월 상환액과 총이자 부담이 크게 늘고, 은행이 빌려줄 수 있는 금액도 약 58만 달러로 줄어 주택 가격 조정 가능성을 언급. [복리와 신용카드] 월 10% 수익을 4년간 내면 1만 달러가 약 120만 달러가 된다는 복리 효과를 강조. 반대로 호주 신용카드 연 80% 금리에서 최소 결제만 하면 상환에 수십 년이 걸린다고 경고. [신흥국] 달러 부채가 많은 신흥국은 달러 강세 시 상환 부담이 커져 위험하다고 지적. [금] 2008년 위기 때 마진콜 대응으로 금이 매도됐지만, 중앙은행이 결국 금리 인하와 화폐 발행에 의존할 것이므로 장기적으로 금이 유리할 수 있다는 견해. [비트코인] 증시 급락 당일 비트코인은 버텼으나 약 10시간 뒤 약 10% 급락. 이를 특정 세력의 조작 가능성으로 의심하면서도, 실수요(개발도상국 등 실사용)가 늘어 주식시장과 비상관 자산이 되어야 한다고 주장. 비트코인의 단기 방향에 대한 명확한 전망은 제시하지 않음. [출연자 전망] 비트코인: 단기 방향 예측 없음, 장기적으로 실사용 확대 기대. 금: 장기 상승 가능성 언급. 주식: 금리 상승에 따른 조정 리스크 경고.
다듬은 글
hi guys thanks for tuning into a special edition of the ask nugget show we've been getting a lot of questions about how bitcoins going to perform in a stock market crash what is rising interest rates mean for Bitcoin is there a correlation and my answer this morning that tweet I pulled out that Bitcoin it held up really well in a day with the stock market and plunged well that all changed a few hours later and I want to talk about why that is and if we can expect that to happen again in the future and it's funny and you know get out your tinfoil hat we've been looking at this article all week what's gonna happen on 10:10 October and then we see this big red day on stock markets and then cryptocurrency follows so today the US stock market's had one of their worst days since Trump's been elected and if you go off the Dow Jones Industrial Average this was the third worst point decline in history now that's a little bit of a misrepresentation because in terms of percentage drops we've had some far bigger moves throughout stock market history but still pretty significant that's a big red candle the Dow Jones is a mix of 30 of the largest US companies but it was across all markets the sp500 you know the Nasdaq which encompasses all those tech stocks russell 2000 you know all these all these were down and we see here we had a bit of a bounce at the 200-day moving average but now we've actually pierced that law but i don't to talk too much about stock market so i want to tie this all together you know with gold bonds interest rates and bitcoin so we saw a volatility spike this is VIX the volatility index stock market see as a general rule over the past few years just haven't been fearful there they just don't think that there's a big correction coming and they haven't been very volatile we say that this quickly jumps from you know 11 to 22 doubling in a few days and for you traders out there there's a few different ways you can play this you vxy I think T VIX is another one but I'm gonna talk a little bit tonight in a members video about ways to play this but for the purpose of this video I just want to try and tie this together with interest rates so 1980 isn't that long ago I'm sure a few of you watching were trading back then as well when interest rates are around 20 percent in the US and I've just been decreasing over time as central bank's low interest rates try and spur economic growth the theory is that if you can get no interest on your money in the bank you go out and spend it it's the same for central banks lending to banks they want to encourage them to give money out and spur loans and innovation and give out mortgages and all that's the sort of theory behind how lowering interest rates work now I'm not going to dive into economics because there's plenty of people that disagree with that theory but 10 for 10 years we've basically been near zero now just lately the US have started to aggressively raise interest rates and there's talk that they'll be you know back up above three and a half percent as soon as next year and this is a pretty similar story around the globe in Australia here you know I was in the 1990s we had interest rates above 15% imagine being able to get that rate of interest on a bank account we've been at around one-and-a-half percent but I mean in Europe they even got as low as negative whether I would punish you for having money in the bank they really were forcing you to go out and spend money again I don't to talk about that too much but let's just have a look at bonds because the bond rate got above 3% on the US 10-year Treasury and only last year or even the start of this year was around that 2.4 percent mark so imagine this is that savings account example you can get 2.4 percent on that and now you can get 3.2 percent so a huge increase and if I've got a bond that was only giving me 2.4 percent and now I can get 3.2 percent what am I gonna do well I'm probably gonna sell it and buy the bond that has the better deal and that's what we've seen this is why bond prices of the actual underlying asset goes down because people are selling them off they believe there's a better deal in the future so that's just a quick explanation two bonds but that they are the biggest market in the world now if I can get a guaranteed 3% on a on a US bond I'm less likely to be pumping more money in the stock market particularly if there are record highs I think GZ the stock market you know there's a fair bit of risk there I can get 3 over 3 percent with no real risk I'm going to pump it into a higher interest rate bond environment or term deposits or you know other assets so that's kind of how this all starts to tie together but the debt is the the big factor that is a record level so 250 trillion is the number we're seeing come out in 2018 and debt is at a higher level than the 2008 financial crisis whether we're talking about households financial sector government debt you know public or private you can cut this however you like guys but the fact is interest rates have been easier around the world and now we're on our way up we're marching higher and I want to give you some real-world examples to really clarify how interest rates can affect everything from your credit card to housing and it's the same underlying principles that affects you know government's corporations bonds everything so let's go over and check out some real-world examples here this is an $800,000 mortgage if you're living in Melbourne and Sydney this is what you're looking at these days to buy a family home anywhere near the city now with current interest rates at four point one percent I'm just on the calm Bank interest rate calculated here if you want to borrow that amount of money you're looking at around three point eight thousand dollars a month is your repayments you end up paying one point four million over the life of the loan six hundred thousand dollars in interest now if you interest rates jump to seven point one percent you know that's only a 3% increase there look how much you're paying extra you almost paying two million dollars over the life of the loan you're paying almost double what you were before now playing 1.1 million just in interest that monthly figure has really stretched you if you were only just being able to afford your principal and interest now you're all of a sudden one thousand five hundred dollars underwater so that shows you just quickly how these realistic numbers can really stress some people out and we're relying on the banks when they do these tests and what we've found in the Royal Commission here in Australia and it was the same in the u.s.
that often we have these lie loans where people lie on their form or banks will you know turn a blind eye to certain conditions and give these loans out to people that maybe couldn't afford afford them because they were getting incentives and there's all this surf our play and it's all well and good in the show everything looks rosy but it's when interest rates rise and the rubber hits the road as you hear me say that things can get messy pretty quickly so let's go have a look at the same example how much is that eight hundred thousand dollar loan theoretically worth if that person can only afford to pay that initial three thousand eight hundred dollars a month they can't actually afford to pay this new amount and this is how my brain works when people talk about housing correction it's been impossible because a lot of people say a house is only worth what a bank will lend you so if you're telling the bank that I can only afford this monthly repayment of three eight all of a sudden your house the amount that they will let you borrow it comes down to five hundred and seventy eight thousand from that initial eight hundred thousand amount if that interest rate is then at the new higher standard so again this is just all stuff to think about that theoretically the same person in the same amount paying the same amount each month this is all they can now borrow is that does that mean that that's all the homes become worth if interest rates rise from just four point one to seven point one percent so hopefully that's a good rule out example that clearly demonstrates some of those principles in the u.s.
the thing that brought down the housing market and the global economy was these ninja loans so they'll giving out loans to people with no income no job and no assets and that's just insane as it sounds hopefully things aren't that bad here in Australia we know there has been some issues but I wanted to highlight that this is an issue not just in housing markets you know credit cards short-term loans the shadow banking system as they call it a lot of people when I can ring up and get five or ten thousand dollar loans you know with just a phone call off clicking a few buttons on a website and it's just this huge amount of global debt as I said before that some people are going to find themselves very quickly underwater so compound interest can be powerful to the upside as well I know we spoke about in an episode last year if you've got ten thousand dollars in your trading account and you know you can just make ten percent a month and this doesn't have mud skies in the cash so let's just go for 48 years but let's pretend that that their months there let's click on that so over 4 years which is 48 months there by just making that one 10% trade you can turn $10,000 into 1.2 million dollars pretty powerful stuff and especially when you can see the you know last year we were on an amazing run with I think 44 winners and one loser and you can turn that amount of money into this amount of money so you've got a risk at all I don't to dive into that too much but power compound interest is a powerful thing it can be a friend if you avoid large draw downs to the upside that's all I want to illustrate there but it can also be your worst enemy so if you've got a credit card debt and in Australia we see these crazy interest rates 80% if you don't pay them on time by paying the minimum you could end up taking you know 43 years and 11 months to pay down they had $10,000 owing amount versus if you're paying the highest amount $1,000 and you can pay this down over 11 months so let's say you've actually got $25,000 debt on your credit card again it can end up costing you ninety four thousand dollars if you're only continually kicking the can down the road paying those minimum repayments and you don't want to take 60 years to pay back $25,000 credit card debt versus paying that maximum amount guys so this is the thing that often catches out people that aren't financially savvy they think oh yeah I'll just pay that off gradually then they get this surprise bill in the mail all of a sudden they can barely afford to pay the the interest let alone the principle that they're trying to pay down and this is how it snowballs and people just get trapped in debt now these examples I've given you a housing and credit cards but this is the same general principle for entire countries a lot of these emerging market index as we see here have been lent a lot of money all the debts in US dollars now double-edged sword if the US dollar gets stronger we you know which it has been look at these emerging markets have just fallen off a cliff they've got to pay back a stronger currency at higher interest rates double-edged sword and that's where we can really get in trouble we don't want to accidentally really strain those economies which could be the driver of growth those emerging markets is where we want you know the best population demographics and growth to come from so that's something to keep an eye on as well guys gold we don't know how gold is going to react so during the 2008 crisis and leading into this gold had been in a still a bull market but like everything people sort of flee to safety and if you're getting margin calls and all these stock positions and you've got gold in your portfolio you just have to sell it to get liquidity to get money in your account and cover your other losses and that's why we see gold really sold off sharply there throughout 2008 but it was really afterwards when people thought gee central banks are gonna lower interest rates print money worries of about inflation know there's no longer a good deal by having money in a bank account and that's where gold just had that huge run from 600 up to 1900 and and since then it's been a you know a bear market the correction people sort of thinking that central banks have things under control the feta started to raise rates it's all pretty rosy but it's gonna be interesting to see if everything gets out of control and people have got a lot of faith in central banks yet they have mucked up in the past how is gold gonna perform is it just going to sell off with everything else or is it gonna have its its day in the Sun I'd certainly think that it is long-term because central banks have no real option apart from printing more money and lowering interest rates we've seen that that is what they do every time guys they try to raise them and they never quite get up as high as the previous peak you know we're on that finite planet we don't have just this huge exponential growth and know fairly unlimited resources that we did back in these periods when the population was a lot lower on the planet so I think God's gonna have its day but Bitcoin is the one that we want to see how it's gonna perform and this morning as I said look at the stock market when it dropped off the cliff here in these thin red bars this was ours before Bitcoin was holding up well actually it was going up a little bit there but then 10 hours later Bitcoin to decide that it was going to sell off now that was really frustrating for me waking up and seeing that Bitcoin and held up well on a day when those headlines about stock markets plunging so I often think who's behind this is that the guys that want to you know imprint on you that when stock market sell-off bitcoins gonna sell off now it didn't happen straight away so you can't say it's that you know necessarily direct correlation and I don't want to call it manipulation because it's fair play by traders and whoever's doing this but yeah disappointing for me because I don't think that this should have necessarily dropped off a cliff and you know you look down the list here everything's down around 10% there hasn't been any bad news for crypto why should be coin on crypto for forklift dropped ten percent ten hours after the stock markets had a correction it all looks very sus to me and I don't want this to become the norm where these small group of people can maybe bully the market so that if there's a big stock market crash in future people again I think oh geez that means Bitcoin is gonna collapse now if the majority of people holding Bitcoin are those people that need liquidity as I said in that other example and they have to sell but at the moment I don't think that's necessarily the case is a large majority of the Bitcoin ecosystem that is retail investors people in different countries people that don't like the US or the US stock market they probably don't have a trading account people using it in the real world in Africa or whatever it is guys that's that real world demand that we'd love for Bitcoin to be the majority of its use case we want that to be outweighing the attachment to US stock markets and ETFs and speculation because if the stock market went into a prolonged correction and Bitcoin could be that uncorrelated asset that's what we really want for it to succeed so let me know your thoughts below how speaking and acting a real ongoing stock market correction or bear market do you believe this was manipulation for stock markets to fall out of bed and then ten hours later Bitcoin happens to fall out of bed as well interesting stuff guys let me know your thoughts below hit that like button subscribe if you haven't already share these videos around and thanks for tuning in guys Cheers
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