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In the spring of 2025, investors around the world were gripped by a single fear. The dollar is collapsing. The fear that U.S. deficits and debt will eventually swallow the dollar . Wall Street analysts, hedge fund managers, and economists shouted in unison. In the middle of it all, only one person pointed in the opposite direction.
Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, spoke quietly but firmly. The dollar is rising. The first number Cathie Wood focused on was the U.S. fiscal deficit. Everyone cited this number as the basis for the dollar's crash . However, she read the exact opposite signal. The deficit was decreasing. The direction was improving from -5.2% to 2% relative to GDP.
The reason was in an unexpected place. Companies were receiving large-scale tax refunds . As the U.S. government allowed immediate write-downs on investments in manufacturing facilities, companies received tens of billions of dollars in refunds. Nevertheless, the deficit decreased. She said. It is a sign that the economy is much stronger than the headlines suggest.
The basis for the theory of a dollar crash was simple. The dollar weakens as the deficit is large. However, Cathie Wood came up with a different equation . U.S. tax cuts and deregulation are boosting the return on invested capital . When returns rise, capital from around the world flows into the United States.
When capital flows in, the dollar becomes stronger. Her dollar forecast was that the dollar index, which was hovering at the 98 level at the time, would rise to 103 . It was a prediction that went straight into the market consensus. But she did not waver. The second rebellion was inflation. The news reported day after day on rising prices.
However, the numbers that Cathiewood focused on were different. Trueflation is a private price index that measures thousands of goods and services in real time. The number had already reached 2% . The key indicator, excluding food and energy, was 1%. It was already below the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
She said. Inflation is already over. The market just doesn't know yet . The third signal was the most urgent. An unprecedented event occurred on the U.S. facility investment chart that Cathie Wood has been watching for over 30 years. The ceiling, which had been repeating for 30 years, has been breached.
The AI boom and investment in power infrastructure were the catalysts. What was even more surprising was that the repercussions were spreading to unexpected places . Companies like Intel, Corning, and Cisco, which were treated as relics of the previous tech bubble, have started receiving large orders again.
Cathie Wood read this as the beginning of manufacturing . However, not everything was bright. Cashwood also faced the uncomfortable reality . Youth experimentation rate 9.5%, 5%, and entry-level jobs were disappearing. AI has absorbed the work of junior developers, and companies have increased the working hours of existing employees instead of hiring new ones .
The consumer sentiment index is at an all-time low, and the automobile delinquency rate is approaching the level of the 2008 financial crisis . She interpreted all of this as the result of a rolling recession, or economic downturn, occurring in rotation across different industries . And I saw that that phase is now coming to an end .
The last variable Cathie Wood focused on was the date. July 4, 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of American independence. She takes this moment as a psychological climax . It was judged that the administration would exert all its efforts to produce tangible results before then . She answered that if falling oil prices, stable interest rates, and clarification of crypto regulations align, consumer sentiment could rebound in a stepwise manner.
Cashwood is often wrong. 2021 Tesla Predictions, Misjudgments in the 2022 Market Crash. The criticism directed at her is always sharp. However, there is also something she has repeatedly proven . The greatest opportunities are hidden when looking in the opposite direction of the crowd . While everyone was shouting for the dollar to crash, she opened the chart and spoke quietly.
The data indicates the opposite . It is now the market's turn to answer whether that statement is right or wrong. no see .
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