저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 백신 기대감은 있으나 실제 회복까지는 시간이 걸리므로 추가 재정부양(정부 부양책)과 마스크 착용이 경제 다리(chasm)를 건너는 핵심이라는 주장. 시장 반응: 모더나 백신 호재로 다우 약 228포인트, S&P500 약 2.59% 상승. 빅테크는 코로나 확진자 급증(플로리다·텍사스·캘리포니아·애리조나) 속에서 상대적으로 부진. 백신 타임라인: 백신은 3상 시험, 안전성 확인, 수억 회분 생산 등 과정이 필요해 실제 상용화까지 최소 6개월 이상 걸릴 것이라고 봄. 따라서 백신 기대만으로 크루즈·항공·외식·테마파크 등 대면 업종을 낙관하는 것은 지나치다고 평가. 타깃 업종/종목: 로열캐리비안, 윈 리조트, 유나이티드항공, 아메리칸항공, 디즈니, 노르웨이지안크루즈, 올리브가든 운영사(Darden), 크래커배럴 등 여행·외식·레저주는 백신 기대로 급등했으나, 사회적 거리두기 장기화 시 실적이 실망스러울 가능성이 크다고 경고. 아메리칸항공은 최대 16% 상승. 재정 리스크: JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼 발언(실업·연체가 이번에는 평소 불황과 달리 증가하지 않음, 저축·소득·집값 상승)을 인용하며 부양 효과를 설명. 그러나 추가 실업수당(주당 600달러 수준)과 급여보호프로그램(PPP) 혜택이 7월 말 만료되면 자영업·소상공인이 타격을 받아 폐업과 실업이 늘 수 있다고 우려. 연방정부 추가 부양이 필요하다고 주장하며 므누신 재무장관 로비를 촉구. 마스크 주장: 마스크 착용이 가장 효율적인 대안이며, 3주간 전 국민 착용 시 팬데믹을 억제할 수 있다는 세일즈포스 마크 베니오프 발언 인용. 코스트코·월마트·크로거 등 마스크 착용 의무화 정책을 긍정 평가하며, 마스크 디자인 공모전(상금 100만 달러)을 소개. 결론 메시지: 마스크 착용이 확산되면 비(非)코로나 관련주가 급등할 수 있으며, 재정 부양이 없더라도 마스크가 경제 회복의 다리 역할을 할 수 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
wark al couldn't have money welcome to America I'll do on teach and put it all in context so call me the one eight hundred seven four three CBC or of course tweet me at Jim Cramer we can finally see the light at the end of the tongue but unfortunately we're separated from that light by a big chasm and if we can't bridge that chasm then you got to look out below that's just terrific vaccine news from the highly promotional moderna the average is war today gal gaining 228 points SNP climbing point now la merced that's like advancing two point five nine percent big tech holding back here spite the horrendous Kovach nineteen case numbers coming out of Florida Texas California Arizona we might be able to go back to normal sooner than we thought thanks to motor no or frankly the dozens of other companies that are working on a vaccine including Astra Zeneca which was neck and neck with the stock the mo Journal all day and after he finished the session with the greater game okay so the vaccines that's the light at the end of the tunnel it led us some euphoric and frankly ludicrous but ludicrously bullish action the usual suspects cruise lines airlines restaurants the second year retailers covert vaccine gang but even if everything goes perfectly it'll be months before vaccine ready it maybe half a year that's what makes these fanciful to me you got to finish studying before you inoculate mode earners vaccine has a new minimum phase three trials yet they need to make sure it works and there are no serious side effects when presented on mass not just this little group and then we need to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses so in the in turn there is only one serious barely foolproof method to bridge us to a successful vaccine and that's stimulus from the federal government this stimulus to you to the business you work for or the business you own however this markets attitude is a totally binary one days when we get good vaccine news like today you know exactly what rally now Royal Caribbean Wynn Resorts United Aaron parent of Olive Garden along with Cracker Barrel Disney Norwegian Cruise which I love but I'm twenty percent of one day come on man now I know anything can be justified in this tape when we get a vaccine people indeed will take cruises again with it the company survive without it they run out of money before they're even allowed to start sealing game casinos neat crowds but social this distancing means no crowds once we get it vaccine Gamble's will be packed into Sardis around the table here though the airline's not only people afraid to fly most of the countries have you banned us so there's not much point in international flights now but what happens American it look close is talking about the possibility of furloughing 25,000 people when it's federal aid expires I worry the government might need to bail them out again take a chunk of equity people are interested to go on vacation we know that corporate travel is a great investment from those companies once there's a vaccine some buyers will lap up a company desperate for cash and yes the stock of American Airlines finishes up to 16 percent that's right 16 percent and I'm worried about it surviving off garden cracker-barrel they can operate in full capacity Gimbel and with a vaccine without if they're hobbled dizzy they're tied to sports movies theme parks three businesses that don't really work when everyone's worried about catching kovin hey you can play this game while you want but it does to me feel a little flop like let game pure chance we have no idea how long we'll take to get a vaccine but we do know that it's a bad idea to own these stocks going into earnings because they will almost surely disappoint so what happens faculty there's more than one way out of the jam yep there's a couple bridges first we definitely need another round of stimulus from the federal government as I mentioned when JP Morgan reported last night CEO Jamie Dimon laid out the logic of what's happening on the conference call he didn't directly call for more government spending but listen to this he said quote in a normal recession unemployment goes up delinquencies go up charges go up home prices go down none of that's true this time he continues savings are up incomes are up home prices are up why because of the last round of stimulus especially the super generous jobless benefits that expire at the end of the month alright that's terrific I'd say it's a miracle the economy's holding up this well but miracles don't cost 2.2 trillion however JPMorgan still had to take some gigantic long lost charges because of what's coming the end of the stimulus bill it was only meant to last for July we figured we have maybe the virus contained in early fall but we botched the reopening and now states are being forced to shut down again that's the chasm the extras ten dollars a week in jobless benefits disappears right as a huge chunk of the country closes for business and it's not just unemployment shorts the Paycheck protection program the PPP has made four point eight million loans more than a half a trillion dollars that's great for small medium-sized business we have used it for our two restaurants ourselves in full disclosure and also my in it's a fabulous life raft for you that's kept a ton of businesses above water fewer than two hundred thousand companies have failed during this period that's amazing - hats off the Treasury Secretary munition gets a lot of criticism this program worked beautifully unfortunately man the businesses that stayed alive will be crushed by social distancing soon especially now that so many states rolling back through the openings they just can't fit enough customers to turn a profit we're a service economy people there are 15 million people working in the restaurant industry alone many of these jobs could disappear when the payroll protection borrowers realized they can't make a living in this environment it's unrealistic so those businesses will close up shop and the extra jobless benefits go away now what are the bank stocks couldn't get much lift on some of these sensational numbers so what do we do well first I may ask you to temper the vaccine hopes hope is not part of the equation the drug companies have to make sure their vaccines are safe then get out in an earnest for joint interest for gigantic trials it's even gonna be hard to enroll before they start manufacturing on massive everything goes right the FDA isn't going to suspend its rules here that was something that will be administered to hundreds of millions of people including children just doesn't work that way if you want to hope for something hope that Congress is willing to spend a lot more money unfortunately it's far from a sure thing secretary munition needs to get in there and lobby aggressively maybe you can bring in some medical executives to hammer home the crab in this situation honestly it should not be his this hard to throw money at voters an election year now of course I'm saying the best list there's one other way if Washington doesn't come through but it relies on us we need to wear these we need to wear mass all of us it's that simple the other day I unveiled a contest on this show to design a mess that more people will wear if you're if you're 15 to 24 years old you can participate there's a million dollar prize for the best one what's best it's the one that most people want to where we can't make the technicals better but something that's good that everyone get one it gets behind so what Americans do what's necessary here I'm starting to leave the mask will prevail not long ago Costco decided to go with the no mass into a service back then a lot of people resisted the idea they thought Costco would take a hit for turning away customers they thought they were dreamers Oh contraire Mon frère they just had a blowout month with double-digit same store sales with now this morning Walmart adopted the same policy I'm into them trying to get him to talk about it it's the closed Kroger largest grocery did the same tens of millions of people shop at these places every week this might be the breakthrough we need I'm gonna call it the mask pontoon bridge it's cheaper more efficient than another government bailout query Salesforce calms Marc Benioff who's become an expert reopening that the economy and is part of this mask initiative the competition I'm talking about if everyone wore masks for three weeks we could stop the pandemic in its tracks that's what he told us when we roll it out the XPrize competition next prize Todd or gate is a charity I say maybe nonprofit I say make it five weeks and we are golden although I don't know if I want to wear a spam mask for five straight weeks Oh what the heck if we embraced masking two-thirds of this market than non kovat stocks would explode higher the bottom line if you can't be bothered to wear a mask to protect your health or the health of those around you please do it for the economy I know it's not that comfortable I know it doesn't look that great all this one's stylish maybe we get a more stylish one but it gets us across the chasm and that's what matters and why don't we just design a better mess together and pay someone a million bucks to do it Rama
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