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and and Tom I don't know if I need to ask you for like a specific price Target on Nvidia at this point but that was the market leadership until the summer when it broke down what do we need from it at this point well I mean Nvidia is still at the center of the the entire transformation that's coming with AI and Nvidia continues to be one of the leading companies so you know from a long-term investor perspective I I think anyone should look at Nvidia congestion and consolidation opportunities to add if they don't have exposure and then I think for anyone else it's it's just a time to be patient because of course stocks don't just go straight up go there are a couple stocks however moving higher Nvidia is up about 3% yes three almost 3% the company hosting a three-day Summit in Washington starting today it's up 25% over the past month that move has pushed its market cap back up above $3 trillion and pass Microsoft into second place behind just Apple five you shared a cautionary tale with us about how even the most influential revolutionary companies can eventually their stocks can go down here's Microsoft from 1997 to 2006 and it just said Wham it took 17 years to break even this is not where Nvidia is right now is it uh we don't think so Charles but we work with retail high at worth investors and we tend to forget the past sometimes when things are good I call it The Crucible of fear and greed when things are good everybody wants to be in right when things are bad everybody wants to be out so we put a little uh piece together on Microsoft to remind people that the absolute best company You could argue in the last 30 40 years right went through some tough times Nvidia has been going up so our phones have been ringing off the hook we got to have more Nvidia got to have more Nvidia we don't think we're in a Microsoft situation but trees don't grow to the sky and it's normal for stocks that have run that fast to consolidate using the same chart Todd though could we be in something of the a pair olic period though here where and I mean if so it's a big difference I mean getting out here and getting out here obviously on the way up people are going to call you to your point like how come I'm not in how come not in in of course when of of course when it collapses you know the phones don't ring right yeah 100% so we've seen uh Nvidia go Skyhigh in June it got to 140 uh bucks a share intraday two months later it was down to in the 90s very heavy volatility like an Aftershock earthquake pattern that's probably going to be the normal pattern if hyperscaling continues so what we're telling clients is don't chase these stocks when they run a lot and it's very exciting hold your horses dollar cost average in and use uh volatility as your friend you also had ANP sale you had you Blended the four uh 12mon PE ratios right PE multiples here Nvidia obviously in a class by itself um how much stock do you put into something like do you rather like for instance use a PEG ratio or something like that how much you stock are you putting into making selections for the portfolio based on just PE ratios and things like that sure you can use a lot of valuation metrics but if we're going to use the poster child for highly valued Nvidia is going to Ping the top bar on all of them so we look at a lot of different things this illustrates the highly valued nature of the white hot NASDAQ 100 the AI ecosystem stocks and some of the better valuations in your value names right in a week where we're poised for a lot of semiconductor news whether it is NVIDIA speaking down in DC or AMD with its event obviously this update with super micro I mean is there still a trade to be had there are there still gains to be had in the sector I think again you're going to have to pick stock so I think with Nvidia it's not going to surprise me to see that hit new all-time record highs before the end of the year because Blackwell in a weird way the fact that it's been delayed is good for them because nobody wants to get out of line and Mis getting those chips because they're two to three times more powerful and the current generation of chips out there so we like quite a in what might seem counterintuitive we like Nvidia actually through year end because of that now I've been pretty open about saying I think there's going to be an AI digestion phase coming I think it's going to happen in the first half of 2025 I think you're going to have a big problem when that occurs because you haven't seen revenues for the companies spending all of this money on ai go up they've all gone down what do I mean by that Google Microsoft Amazon three of the four biggest Spenders on AI infrastructure after they reported the June quarter all of their Ford Revenue estimates went down and that's why those stocks had some issues so unless you see all the spending translate into revenues you're going to get a digestion phase and by the way that happened after Co nvidia's revenues went from being up over 80% year-over-year to being down over 20% year year as these same customers digested all of the covid spend so Nvidia is kind of complicated but in the short term I think there's a good shot you see new record highs before the year is over higher if you look at Nvidia today if you look at semiconductors so from that high on June 16th June 17th it was a 21% pullback in the semis uh we're now up almost 10% since the lows on September 6th and that's also with higher rates and I would just say if you look at a charted Nvidia or the semis you can see that ultimately they did bounce off the bottom end of that uptrend and so and I'm sure Carter's got a view on this I just get back to the leadership that the markets have looked for on the index level is something that's come from semiconductors and that's then led the NASDAQ which has then led the S&P and meantime shares of Nvidia up nearly 3% today for its fourth straight day of gains it is now up more than 40% from its August fifth lows less than 10% from its all-time high the chipmaker kicking off at 3-day AI Summit this morning Morgan Stanley reiterating the stock as an overweight rating guy I think it was a super micro move if you throw that one up but you know we've talked about this I think Carter talked about it last week you're in this penet formation in Nvidia it's going to break one way or the other today it shows signs of breaking to the upside but I still think this pennant is intact the June 20th level the formation that Tim sort of alluded to I think the stock closed above 140 that day and reversed that's interesting it's not been broached yet so the question is which way does it break is it going to break to the upside out of this pennant or the downside today's action suggest the upside we'll see though it's not there yet Mel and in the case of Nvidia versus an apple I I think you obviously have two stocks where I I would stay with Carter and I just don't think the expectations in apple are that great Nvidia we know they're great and and so now we've dealt with some production issues we've had the company come back and pretty much reassure fourth quarter demand they're they're saying is going to be extremely strong and I I get back to the stock and I get back to even some of the market dynamics that have made Nvidia now performer in addition to those ones that are obviously Nvidia specific I I think the macro supports Nvidia I think it supports the names where you have growth uh and I think the market is less worried about that multiple here all right I hope you're all doing well today and staying calm in this market the S and P finished the day down nearly 1% Nvidia had a great day today finishing up a little over 2.2% and Tesla got hit hard today finishing the day down 3.7% I'll briefly say about Tesla that I think the stock still has upward potential ahead of the robo taxi event on October 10th but I don't know what will happen in the immediate short term Tesla is getting close to this support trend line on the daily time frame if Tesla were to touch that trend line tomorrow that would be around 236 $66.50 per share if we get a clean break below that trend line then I would probably sell the majority of my swing trade position and lock in some gains just in case that being said as long as the rest of the market remains calm then I think Tesla is likely to trade higher ahead of the robo taxi event on October 10th however I expect the October 10th event to be a by the rumor sell the news type of event and so I intend to fully exit this position or at least exit the majority of this position prior to the actual event on October 10th I just want to be completely honest and transparent with you all and tell you that that is what I intend to do with my swing trade position okay now about Nvidia Nvidia performed great today as we had multiple news events yesterday Nvidia updated their investor presentation sharing a lot of exciting details I'm not going to go too deep into details right now but I do want to share a couple slides from the presentation with you really quick so this first slide shows some of the components of Blackwell and I want to reiterate that Blackwell is so much more than just a chip it's an entire platform and this provides a massive Revenue opportunity for NVIDIA additionally I think this next slide is very encouraging this is the product road map for NVIDIA Blackwell launches in 2024 and then we get Blackwell Ultra in 2025 and later on Ruben is expected to arrive in 2026 so again Blackwell is so much more than just a chip and I think Nvidia should be just fine for the next one to two years as long as things remain peaceful in the Pacific and as long as none of the hyperscalers significantly reduce their capb back spending on AI now looking at nvidia's chart we have broken Above This resistance trend line on the daily time frame now here's the thing I don't know how the stock will react in the immediate shortterm over the next couple days this is because Nvidia AI Summit in Washington DC will still be ongoing both tomorrow and Wednesday I am curious to see how the stock reacts in the short term we will have to wait and see if we get any important updates over the next couple days that being said I want to remind all of you of two things I am bullish on the long-term future of Nvidia and at the same time I am cautious about adding to Nvidia and cautious about adding to the rest of the market until November 1st there are three reasons why back in 2016 in 2020 the market began trading lower in mid to late October reaching a relative low on the Friday before the election this year that would be November 1st additionally Nvidia tends to move in Cycles in between earnings prior to nvidia's last two earnings reports the stock reached a relative low three to 5 weeks prior to the company's upcoming earnings reports if that pattern were to repeat itself then we could see softening price action sometime between now and late October early November and the third reason I am cautious right now is earning season it's that time again so this month we get earnings from many semiconductor companies and earnings from many of nvidia's largest customers we got Microsoft and alphabet on the 22nd Tesla on the 23rd Amazon on the 24th meta on the 30th and on top of this we have multiple semi- names reporting including Taiwan semiconductor which is scheduled to report on October 25th first this will be a key earnings report both for NVIDIA and the entire industry about 90% of the world's most advanced ships are currently manufactured in Taiwan and tsmc manufacturers Nvidia chips so that earnings report on the 21st will be very important to watch so given the pattern the market followed during the last two election Cycles given nvidia's typical cycle in between earnings and given a packed month of earnings reports I am cautious right now about adding to Nvidia and cautious about adding to the rest of the market now once we get to the actual week of the election I think it is likely for NVIDIA and the rest of the market to start trading High based on what happened back in 2016 and 2020 and this is of course assuming that nothing unexpected is happening in the world at that time I think Nvidia is likely to trade higher in November ahead of the company's next earnings report I think this is especially likely considering micron's great earnings the fact that Blackwell Revenue should start to show up in Nvidia next quarter guidance and because the entire Market is likely to trade higher in early November based on historical Trends so those are my short-term and medium-term thoughts on Nvidia as of now looking ahead from a long-term perspective I think nvidia's brightest days are ahead and I seriously would not be surprised if this company doubles over the next 2 years given nvidia's as long as nothing unexpected happens to Taiwan and as long as none of the hyperscalers significantly reduce their cap back spending on AI one to two years at least that's how I view the situation
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