저자: BenRaines · 외국인
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2020년 8월 17일 기준 S&P500·나스닥이 신고가 부근. 엔비디아는 데이터센터 성장(1분기 +80%), 멜라녹스 인수 효과로 2분기 매출 +42% 전망, 밸류에이션은 과열이지만 실적 기대가 높음. 알리바바는 중국 이커머스 점유율·클라우드 성장(+56%) 강조, 밸류에이션(전방 매출 6.2배) 부담이 낮아 장기 투자 매력 언급. 두 종목 모두 Zacks Rank #3(Hold). 실적 직전 단기 매매는 위험하며 장기 관점 접근 권고.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to another episode of full court finance here at zax i'm your host ben raines and today we're taking a look at nvidia and aldi baba ahead of their upcoming earnings releases later this week but before we get into everything i want to say remember to subscribe and leave a review wherever you listen your podcast and make sure to check out our new zacks.com promo page for a look in some of our services portfolios and more so quickly before we jump in the s p 500 is now resting just below its february highs as of early trading monday morning and the nasdaq is right back near its recent records as well we saw a tesla surge over seven percent monday morning putting them on track for a new record close as well their shares have more than quadrupled in value this year making it really one of the big success stories of 2020 along with lots of other big names in tech we've talked about in the show and most of you have heard about so far in the 2020 and especially this comeback off the markets march lows and then another big winner early monday was the first stock we're going to talk about today and that is nvidia which trades in the ticker nvda its shares have enjoyed really a serious ride off the market's bottom they're up 130 percent from march 23 there that crushes like some zoom and amazon and fellow semiconductor industry standout advanced micro devices and this includes another six percent jump uh monday morning to see it hit brand new highs so now wall street is awaiting the release of their second quarter fiscal 2021 earnings results that are due out on wednesday august 19th so this upcoming wednesday so we're gonna just go through nvidia and then see what to expect from the earnings and then maybe give some perspective on what the stock could do going forward so nvidia built its reputation as a graphics processing unit power that served the ever-growing global gaming industry that is really expected to expand from uh around 160 billion dollars this year in 2020 to over 200 billion dollars by 2023 so it's a ever-growing market gaming is getting bigger from mobile phones to pcs to consoles uh the firm's gaming unit was by far its largest revenue contributor contributor for the last several years and farther back than that as well but its data center business is catching up quickly and this has really impressed wall street and this is why the stock has been on such a tear recently the company's successful expansion into growth areas such as data centers cloud computing and artificial intelligence is poised to help the company continue its impressive growth so if we look back its data center business soared about 80 percent in the first quarter from 634 million in a year ago period to 1.14 billion so some really big growth in the first quarter that that unit brought in over a billion dollars the company also easily beat our estimates back in may with total revenue up 39 percent we should also note that in april the company closed its 7 billion acquisition which was its largest ever of melanox technologies and that is going to help it continue to expand into this data center uh business cloud computing and we should note that its new architecture is set to play a key role within ai focused chips and cloud computing which are both sort of the future of tech that we've been hearing about for the last several years and they're really just starting to take off uh so as we mentioned the videos nvidia stock is up really big so far it's up 110 in 2020 which includes its massive run off the market's lows and then about 190 percent over the last 12 months so this crushes its semiconductor industries 40 climb and it's also during this stretch surpassed intel to become the largest u.s semiconductor firm by market value and its recent climb is part of a really a much longer run that's seen it climb all the way from just 25 a share five years ago to its current price of 493 as of early morning trading on monday so from 25 to share five years ago all the way up to just under 500 bucks a share for nvidia this run has however stretched its valuation picture a bit nvidia is trading at about 17.8 times forward 12 month sales which comes in well above its one year median of about 11.8 so 18 times forward sales compared to its median of about 12 times over the last year so you could say its valuation is stretched but investors have been willing to pay a premium for nvidia uh for the last several years and the entire tech space at least these big players who have seen their share prices climb recently their evaluations have become bloated in general as big tech continues to prove its resilience to the coronavirus and its ability to grow during all this we should note that nvidia does pay a dividend as well but this big run up in its share price has shrunk its dividend yield to about 0.14 at the moment so pretty small dividing yield but it's still paying a dividend which is good for a company that's also growing as well the firm also has a pretty solid balance sheet and it's part of an industry that sits in the top 20 percent of our more than 250 zax industries so if we look ahead our current estimates are calling for its q2 revenue to jump about 42 percent to about 3.65 billion this would top last quarters growth and top the fourth quarter's growth as well so a big quarter is expected from nvidia in the second quarter that said it is expected to slow in the second half with its full year revenue projected to jump about 33 percent and then if we look ahead we're calling for another 18 growth in 2022 so it's fiscal year 2022.
and the semiconductor industry in general is a bit more cyclical we saw nvidia have sales decline last year and then obviously it's bounced back in a big way so seeing two years of growth is a good sign for nvidia as well so then the bottom end of the income statement its adjusted future earnings are projected to soar about 60 percent to 1.94 cents per share and then if we look ahead its overall fiscal 2021 earnings are expected to climb about 36 percent and then come in another 22 percent higher next year so with all that said nvidia has clearly set a pretty high bar for itself and there might be some near-term selling pressure even if it posts strong results and has strong guidance just because it's been on such a big run it's trading at new highs continuing to trade at new highs heading into its earnings up so big there could just be more pressure but that said we thought lots of people thought sort of that same thing for apple and some other big names in tech but they showed that their blowout results could continue to push their stock prices higher and higher we saw that at the end of last month with apple and amazon and facebook as investors are really just looking for anyone that boasts the ability to grow during these uncertain coronavirus economic times and for years to come down the future so that's just it's worth remembering even though nvidia has been on such a tear if it is able to impress it it could it could they just showed some of these big names just showed that you could still climb even though it's been up so big that said it is currently a zax rank number three hold and it should investors should note that its longer term earnings revisions are up since its last report and it's consistently topped our bottom line estimates so that's that's what we know about nvidia heading into its upcoming report and now we're going to move on to alibaba which trades under the ticker b-a-b-a so unlike nvidia alibaba has actually lagged the broader uh tech market during this run-up since its march lows it's fallen behind chinese rival jd.com and it's u.s or it's often cited u.s counterpart amazon during the market rally so it's up about 45 against roughly 65 climbs from those two names we just mentioned so now heading into its release which is set to come out before the market opens on thursday august 20th investors are trying to figure out what to do perhaps with alibaba so we're just going to give the sort of the potted pitch for alibaba and then look at what to expect from their upcoming report alibaba reportedly controls roughly two-thirds of the chinese e-commerce market and many on wall street have long been excited about the firm's ability to grow alongside china china's growing middle class just for a frame of reference uh china's middle class could hit roughly 550 million by 2022 and this is according to mckinsey estimates which is far larger than the entire u.s population which sits at about 330 million at the moment so that massive market gives alibaba continuing room to grow as they can reach more of uh smaller cities outside of the really major major cities in china as the middle class grows in that country which is the second largest economy in the world at the moment that said its revenue climbed about 22 percent last quarter with its core e-commerce unit accounting for about 82 percent of its total revenue we should note that its annual active customers reached 726 million up about 15 million sequentially and its mobile monthly active users hit about 846 million for the three month period ended on march 31st and alibaba like many other tech focus firms has been expanding its cloud computing business that unit was up 56 last quarter to account for about 11 of revenue so that far that growth far outpaced its core commerce unit which just was up 19 so 56 58 growth for its cloud computing unit and then like amazon it also has a digital media and entertainment unit that was up about five percent for the quarter and it's worth noting that uh the chinese market is the only major market and really one of the only markets in the world that netflix does not have the ability to get into at the moment so they don't have as much competition from some of these big american streaming companies that have gone all over the world at this point at the moment so that is worth noting there could be some room to grow for that entertainment unit as well alibaba also topped our adjusted earnings estimates last quarter and the ceo of the company thinks that it is clearly set to capitalize on the pandemic environment that he said has quote fundamentally altered consumer behavior and enterprise operations so he thinks they're going to be able to do even bigger cloud computing business and that more and more people are going to be e-commerce shoppers because of the pandemic and the company was also able to meet the its annual revenue guidance despite this more challenging economic environment with the coronavirus uh obviously taking its toll on chinese economy as well as economies around the world and we should note that the company laid out in their most recent quarterly results that they sort of reiterated what they said in last september which was on their 20th anniversary as a company they were setting out strategic goals for the next five years which they hope to continue to what they call expand their globalization efforts so to expand outside of china they want to serve more than 1 billion chinese consumers and then this is part of a larger goal for 2036 that they want to reach 2 billion global customers so that would be a massive jump from about 800 something million at the moment they want to get all the way up to 2 billion by 2036 and we should also note that alibaba raised around 13 billion dollars when it went public in hong kong this past november and this is part of a recent trend that's seen jd and some other companies secure secondary listings closer to home and this is also happening as tensions more recently tensions are continuing to grow between the us and china but that's been bubbling for a while now as well and another thing that that's definitely worth mentioning is that the company former ceo's next big venture stands to benefit alibaba so jack ma's ant group is a technology and financial services firm that owns alipay which is a widely popular mobile payments platform in china that competes alongside wechat pay and the company announced back in july that it plans to go public in a dual listing in shanghai and hong kong and alibaba holds about 33 stake in the fintech firm that's set to expand as part of this continuingly booming chinese digital payments economy where you can buy pretty much everything from things on at just local street vendors all via digital payments so if we take a look ahead our zax estimates are calling for alibaba's june quarter or its q1 revenue to jump about 25 percent which would top last quarter's 22 sales growth and then if we look ahead this full year is expected to climb about 30 percent and then come in another 27 percent higher next year so some solid and stable top-line growth is expected for alibaba and its adjusted quarterly earnings are expected to climb about five percent to a dollar and fifty two cents per share with its full year adjusted earnings expect to climb about 15 so expecting bigger bottom live movement later on in the year for alibaba uh and then if we look even further ahead we're calling for another nearly 30 percent uh higher earnings in 2022 so that's a positive sign that it's it's heading in the right direction in terms of its adjusted earnings it's also worth noting that alibaba topped our quarterly earnings estimates by an average of about 32 percent in the trailing for a quarter so it continues to beat our bottom line estimates and like nvidia it is currently a zax ranked number three hold and it supports a b grade for momentum in our sales score system it's currently trading at about 6.2 times forward 12 months sales right now which comes in below its one year highs and not too far above the overall ecommerce markets average and the stock sits at about five percent off its recent highs heading into its upcoming earnings release which unlike a lot of these other big tech stocks um it could give it some more room to run and maybe some room to break out if it's able to impress wall street with its upcoming results that said and should also be said about nvidia it's probably likely prudent to wait if you're trying to play this for a near-term earnings it's it's very risky as i said there could be lots of selling pressure just in general uh amid all of the uncertainty but alibaba and nvidia are both certainly worth taking a look at as longer term investments and those people then might want to wait just a couple days to see how their their actual near-term results shake out and what that that guidance has in store for the company going forward before jumping into the stocks at the moment uh we should also note just as a broader market outlook that uh walmart target and some other big names are also set to report their results later this week as we slowly come to an end of the q2 earnings season and we should also note that uh our zach's estimates are showing that q3 earnings outlook continues to improve slightly so that helps us see why maybe the market continues to head higher that we are seeing things start to trend in a more positive direction so that does it for another episode of full court finance until next time i'm your host ben raines and remember if you have any questions please feel free to shoot us an email over at podcast saks.com this material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this podcast without seeking the services of competent and professional legal tax or accounting council publication and distribution of this podcast is not intended to create and the information contained here in does not constitute an attorney-client relationship no recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor it should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable all information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of zack's investment research as a whole
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