저자: MarkusHeitkoetter · 외국인
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Fed 회의 이후 기술주 급락(나스닥 -2.47%, 애플·AMD·엔비디아 하락)을 다루며, 금리 인상 우려로 고성장 기술주가 타격받고 은행주가 상대 강세라고 설명. 현재 조정폭은 조정 기준(10%)에 못 미치고 VIX는 20 부근으로 공포 과도하지 않다고 진단. 로빈후드(Bank of America 언더퍼폼), 리비안 생산 차질, 테슬라 1000달러 지지 붕괴 등 개별 종목 약세 언급. 연말 산타랠리 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
all right good morning and welcome to today's stock market update for friday december 17th and stocks continue their sell-off after the fed meeting and tech stocks are hit the worst apple adobe amd nvidia are all crashing hard so we'll talk about this there's more bad news for robin hood we'll take a look at robin hood also what's next for airbnb ravion and fedex reported earnings and uh we'll show you what happened and much much more now if this your first time here hi i'm marcus hyde cutter i'm a professional trader and every morning we sift through a mountain of news websites newsletters and reports and then we take the most important news and go live here to share with you what you need to know as you head into your trading day if this is your first time here i know it can be overwhelming so don't worry we have a special video just for you and i'll link to it in the description that's a great place to get started joining me is my head coach mark hodge who has 24 years of training experience and together we have helped thousands of regular people understand how to trade these crazy markets and actually make money way beyond what your typical financial advisor would do so here is what has been happening yesterday mark let's take a look at this i mean i've brought up the the s p 500 the s p 500 kind of hanging in there but uh quite an interesting day interesting the to say the least marcus you know this was the type of move that i expected with the fed statement right and it's these crazy bipolar markets i mean you have this sell-off going into the fed that the fed you know i don't think there were really any surprises there i that could be why there was a bit of a rally but then to sell off the next day is weird right um anyway um the s p down point nine percent but the nasdaq marcus the nasdaq down 2.47 its worst day since september uh with investors continuing to digest the fed news of course rising inflation and the spread of the omicron variant is affecting the markets but we know that higher interest rates to combat inflation is going to hurt uh high growth tech names and right that's what's happening yeah because we see the rotation going on right now in the dow i mean look at the dow the dow actually yesterday pretty much changed uh or yeah finished unchanged i mean down 0.08 nothing but as you said the nasdaq got hit hard i won't bring up the the 50-day moving average because there's one that traders pay attention to and if you're looking at the at these two indices i mean the the dow has been dipping below it but has found some support here right now the s p 500 has found some support at the 50-day moving average but the nasdaq boom went right through like a hot knife through butter and uh moving lower here right now and uh yeah i mean it's it it was mainly the the tech stocks that got hit hard so i mean this is where we see even the the big names familiar names like apple i mean apple yesterday down almost four percent this morning down another one percent who else did we have amd right nvidia video amd here down 5.3 this morning again down 1.5 nvda so i mean even the the big names here are getting hit hard let's go back to the to the nasdaq and now let's just zoom out here for a little bit and uh take a little bit uh a look at a bigger picture i mean everybody right now is like oh my gosh what is happening is the market crashing is this what we are seeing here but but if you measure it i mean from the the previously established high we are right now down what like seven percent that's not even a correction i mean a correction is defined as ten percent and uh this is what we saw i believe we saw this a little bit earlier in september let's see if we went down the ten percent no not even there eight percent i mean so we haven't had a correction even in the nasdaq that is more volatile here uh in quite a while if we are zooming out here on a weekly chart you're right you're right and you know i i think that covid is something to watch in the omicron variant and even in new york uh city the positive infection rate is doubled in just a couple of days but this move here is really all about uh inflation and the fed it's just interesting that it was the day after right because even look at big stocks marcus i mean pull up bank of america yeah bac's the ticker right bank of america was up 2.4 percent you could look at wells fargo uh wfc right yep there we go 2.8 so yesterday was clearly banks benefiting from possible higher interest rates and tech stocks sinking because of higher interest rates yeah and that's the the rotation that uh we typically see so i mean the key question is where do we go from here what do you think will we have a center class rally or is this something where right now markets are are crashing into the end of the year something similar that we had in december 2018 remember that yeah and i mean for me i do believe santa's coming to town i also felt i mean i mentioned it that i expected a lot of volatility this week and uh the fed had to come out and they had to say yes we're re were willing to raise rates and i i think they managed that well i was i just expected a drop after the statement maybe a little follow through heading into the week so the the back and forth is is always just kind of what's really going on here but i i do think well i see some stability and get a santa claus rally yeah because even if you look at the vix i mean the vix is really not responding here and the vix is the the fear gate right where we see okay how much fear do we have and it recently spiked when we had the news about the omicron variant but i mean ever since then i mean the vix has been staying right around the 20 mark i mean it's it's not really spiking above 30 so it just shows that there is not as much panic in there as some people think or might make you believe where they say the sky is falling and now the market is crashing i mean right now this is as you said mark this what we saw yesterday is kind of a normal reaction to what the fed said on wednesday when we talked about the wednesday move was like what the heck is going on so i mean going into the open here uh we see that the selling continues so the nasdaq is down almost one percent the e-mini smp is down 0.7 uh the the dow is hanging in there again with 0.5 but we are definitely heading into a lower opening here we are we are and uh tech's still leading the way lower yeah all right let's talk about a few individual stocks that are on the move and one of them moving in the wrong direction again is robin hood i mean robbie not has been struggling ever since it had its ipo did you see what happened there yeah so they fell uh after bank of america initiated coverage of the stock with an underperformed rating uh the wall street firm said the perfect storm from the pandemic is over for robin hood and it's estimated that the broker's organic growth and trading activity could face a multi-year headwind as client engagement fades bottom line putting that into real speak they don't believe that the customers are gonna still you know be drawn to robin hood and i i think that this is like the biggest concern of you know being such a market mover where they change the whole brokerage industry but they didn't get rid of any brokers right they just changed the whole industry and now at this point i think the robinhood you know fat is over um so it is going to be harder to attract more customers because i think if anything people are leaving as they get more experience and moving on to a broker that might be a little more established and experienced yeah and i just looked at it i mean from the high that was established to where we are right now that that's down 80 eighty percent i mean that's out okay um now another one airbnb i mean airbnb also yesterday down and this is a stock i mean this one here really really surprised me because they went public last year in the middle of the pandemic basically and they have been very very volatile between 120 and 220 and yesterday uh yeah down 7 and this morning down another two and a half percent sliding and taking out those recent lows this might this one might have a little more downside before it starts to turn back higher again yeah all right uh now another ipo that we had recently is uh rivien rivn i mean rivien was flying high and everybody said hey that's good and yesterday they reported earnings for the first time after they went public and it didn't go well because yesterday they were already down five percent this morning in pre-market trading down another 10 now below their opening price on their ipo day and this is the the you know paradox of the ev maker where you have interest but you can't make vehicles right and so uh they said that their reservations for their electric pickup and suv increased 28 percent uh and they announced plans to build a new uh vehicle assembly plant in georgia but uh they said that it expects the uh production 2021 production expects to fall a few hundred vehicles short that means a few hundred vehicles if tesla would say this it wouldn't matter right but here arabian was planning for 1200 1200 vehicles so if you're a few hundred short out of 1200 that's pretty significant yeah it could be 20 short it could actually be 50 percent short they said well we said a few hundred you know they could only be producing half of what they expected and i mean that's a big problem right and you know musk has said it all along you know it's it's one thing to you know basically have a startup but it's another to produce vehicles and actually get them out there yeah now uh talking about musk tesla he is still selling shares and i mean ever since he started selling shares tesla has been struggling and uh i mean we talked about we thought that the 1000 level would hold here as support but now trading well below 1000 yesterday getting hit hard with the whole tech sell-off down 5 but also in pre-market trading down another one point seven percent the i this drop below thousand a thousand and stay in below there yeah this one i i like tesla i like tesla but i could see a little more downside before this uh pops back higher because i'm just looking at that chart the 1000 did not hold and it seemed like you know sometimes you have these round number supports whether or not there's any rationale to it uh traders see that as a level whether it's you know 100 bucks a share thousand bucks a share 10 bucks a share and that thousand level seems to be the line in the sand yeah i mean i also brought up the the fin wiz map here uh where we see that uh tesla uh year to date i mean they're they're still up 31 uh so that's that's pretty healthy here what's going on all right we had a few more companies reporting earnings fedex is one all right let's bring up fdx fedex here and wow huge dump up 6.4 percent yeah nice move after they beat earnings estimates uh for the last quarter uh they reported an adjusted 4.83 cents a share which was uh better than the 428 expected they said that higher shipping rates have actually helped them to make up for some of their uh increased expenses so that's a win for them seems that they're dealing well with the inflation all right who else do we have uh i saw winnebago wgo wgo winnebago so the rv maker up about four and a half percent pre-market after a pretty big earnings win they earned three dollars and 51 cents a share and this is compared to an estimate of 226 a share revenue also came in higher so nice win for them yeah let's actually take a look at uh thor industries uh one of their competitors okay very similar chart here uh so they obviously were a big pandemic winner since nobody could travel this is where people discovered rving again and this is where uh winnebago wgo and thor actually uh soared during the pandemic and right now they're still hanging in there they're still hanging in there there's also darden restaurants dris the ticker and so this is the parent company of olive garden uh longhorn steakhouse and some other restaurants and they beat estimates uh by five cents a share revenue is also better uh same store sales jumped 34.4 which was better than the 32.6 estimate uh their ceo did announce that he will be retiring in may of 2022 so an earnings win for them but down four point seven percent i'm not sure uh if that's because of the ceo retirement i believe so i mean this traders don't like uncertainty we talked about this over and over again i mean uncertainty is not good so who will be the next ceo what vision will he have where will he take the direction uh will other people resign if the ceo resigns so i mean there's yeah what changes will we see in the leadership team i mean that's what we saw when jack dorsey uh the ceo of twitter resigned and announced that the next guy who becomes the ceo i mean it only took him a week to reshuffle the whole leadership team and this is where he's saying like okay let's see what happens there true all right now one more thing that is happening this weekend super important spider-man is opening up at the box office no way home and uh set to dominate the domestic box office uh nap the highest opening of the pandemic so it's opening today in theaters near you uh what do you think are you going to watch it yeah yeah oh that's not very introducing the kids and i we're a marvel fan so i mean we'll definitely watch it probably not on opening weekend because this is kind of crazy but uh over the next couple of weeks we'll definitely watch it it has been on our list for quite a while all right we got to get ready to trade these crazy markets and there's a lot to trade if you would like to know how we trade these markets we'll leave a couple of videos right here and if you enjoyed this market update and you would like to see more of these videos subscribe to this channel this way you get a notification whenever we go live happy trading everybody
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