Best strategy for investors is to stick with what's working like AI, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

요약 보기

AI 관련주(엔비디아 등) 강세가 지속될 것으로 보며 '잘 되는 것을 고수'할 것을 권고. 연말 S&P500 목표 5,200은 너무 낮다고 판단하며 내년 EPS 280 가능성 제시. 소형주는 금리인하 기대에 민감하나 Russell 2000 이익성장률(약 19%)과 낮은 P/E를 근거로 매력 언급. 비만치료제(GLP-1) 조정은 매집 기회로 봄. 미국 기업 선호, 해외 투자는 신중 권고.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Nvidia and its AI-fueled rally show no signs of slowing down, with the chipmaker hitting an all-time high today. The Nasdaq closed above 17,000 for the first time. Nvidia shares have risen nearly 20% since last week's earnings report. Take a look at other companies in the chip sector that also hit all-time highs today.

02. Micron, NXP Semi, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments. So, should investors count on Nvidia to continue pushing the market higher? We're in touch with Fundstrat's Head of Research and CNBC columnist Tom Lee. Tom, nice to see you. You are still optimistic about June. You say there's not enough investor confidence and too much cash is sitting idle, but now it seems to be starting to come in.

03. So how to invest without being affected by volatility? Well, this is one of those years where investors have been hesitant all along, and while there have been brief pullbacks, I believe the best strategy is to stick with what works. And now there are companies working on AI, whether it's Nvidia or highly correlated stocks like Cadence or Supermicro; also deals related to Ozempic, industrial and financial companies, bitcoin and related assets, and the growing hidden rally in small- cap stocks.

04. So I believe there are still many ways to invest in this market. However, small- cap stocks have been too hot, and not in a good way, especially due to periodic spikes in returns. Are there certain sectors among small caps that are worth investing in gradually, and how do you compare them to megacaps?

05. Well, I think small- cap companies are very sensitive to the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Therefore, they are very dependent on when the Fed will start tapering. The Fed's latest comments hurt small-cap stocks as expectations for a June cut were postponed and the chances of a September cut are likely diminishing.

06. This puts pressure on small- cap stocks, but does not negate their fundamental appeal. Earnings growth on average for Russell 2000 stocks is almost 19%, and the median P/E is -11. So you get much better earnings growth than the S&P and a much lower P/E multiple. What's incredible about this , Tom, is that at the beginning of the year we had a market that was aggressively pricing in a flurry of rate cuts, and now we have a market where stocks continue to rise as investors digest the possibility, or perhaps hope for the possibility, that the Fed won't raise rates again before the end of the year.

07. It seems that is the case. This is taken for granted. Every time Powell or anyone else comes out and says, “Oh, you know, we think the peak is over. "We don't think we'll have to raise the rate again." I...we really saw an incredible pendulum swing. And this raises the question: how much does everything now depend on profits, if this is the scenario?

08. Well, I think that's aptly noted. So, first, the number of expected cuts decreased, but it decreased for the right reasons, because the economy was good. Inflation is progressing, perhaps not at the rate that everyone would like, but the reality is that 3% or even 2.7% inflation is really good for corporate profits.

09. So I think the earnings forecast is actually much better than most expect. You can see Nvidia's success as an example, but S&P earnings next year, maybe if the consensus is around 270, could be closer to 280. So you see why there is upside potential for the stock. Today, the S&P closed at 5,306. I believe your year-end target is still 5,200.

10. Should it be raised? What do you think about this? Well, yes. So, our year-end target is too low because next year's earnings, if they're 280 and you apply a multiplier of 20, that's well above 5,200. But it's only the beginning of June, and I think we're still deciding whether there's going to be any hurdle between June and December, but yeah, I would say 5,200 is too low.

11. Tom, what are your thoughts on trading stocks in weight loss and healthcare companies, epitomized by Lilly? They are at real highs right now, with a market cap of three- quarters of a trillion dollars, but they have been hovering in that range for about 3 months now. Yes, I think a lot of the large- cap stocks that have been leaders are showing similar consolidation patterns, and, you know, I think it's too early to say that Ozempic and GLP-1 drugs have peaked.

12. So for us, this is actually an opportunity to accumulate assets. I don't think this looks any different than the situation with Nvidia before the reports or many other stocks that have recently made a breakthrough. US stocks—are they really worth being in right now? Are you also looking at overseas markets, especially if, for example, the ECB cuts rates before the Fed?

13. Well, it's good to see other central banks cutting rates because, from our perspective, inflation is probably moving better than most expect. However, I believe that the best companies, especially in the technology, financial, and healthcare sectors, are mostly located in the US. So I would be much calmer in advising investors to stick with the best companies in the US than to try to buy something overseas because of relative valuation.