저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏이 2020년부터 일본 5대 상사주(미쓰비시·미쓰이·이토추 등)에 투자한 배경을 설명. 일본은 저금리·낮은 금리 환경에서 자금 조달 비용이 낮고, 배당주 특성(주당배당금 꾸준한 성장)이 매력적이라고 주장. 통계상 일본 시장은 대형주 중심 안정성이 높고 EPS 성장과 주가의 연관성이 미국보다 강하다는 분석. 미국은 기대감·기술주 요인이 주가에 더 크게 작용한다고 설명.
다듬은 글
From the beginning of the year until now, the stock market... Japan, or Nikki as it is known, has seen an upward adjustment. It's been quiet, and its performance has been quite good, so I tried to look for more information about it. We just pulled out the statistical data to see if it existed. What's interesting behind all this?
What's hidden if we... Compared to the US market, today we'll take a look. The reason for this is that the Japanese stock market has... Interestingly, there was something behind the scenes when Buffett invested in 2020. What is it? And does it still exist today? Gradually investing in Japanese stocks on a continuous basis.
Okay, regarding the Burglar Cine, even though... I was thinking of changing hands from Buffet to GRE, but they still say they're staying with him. I've already been gradually investing in Japanese stocks, so I thought... It's probably a long-term investment that wasn't expected to be made. It will be sold outright, and the overall content is as follows: Today's lesson will be divided into two parts.
The first part will be about interesting topics. This is for the Japanese market. The key features behind it are... What is he? I have to say, it's the Japanese market. It will have a character quite different from the United States. That's a lot, if we look at the statistics in Part 2, which I will be discussing.
Pull up the statistical data on returns and then... The issue of profit growth in comparison to the market. The United States says they have different characteristics. Then we will discover the key features, that's what it really is. What secrets does the Japanese stock market hold? The hidden purpose of today's content is...
Well, I feel that in the past period... Yes, we are familiar with and have heard the word... The US market has been quite large, and that's true. Nowadays, investment isn't limited to just... Only the United States, because... Nowadays, we can invest everywhere. Globally, whether through mutual funds or...
Through brokers, which are starting to appear these days. Is it an opportunity, or are there foreign shares available? Besides the United States, they've given us permission to invest. So, today will be another one. It's an idea that I just came across myself. Well, I didn't do anything either, but...
I just saw it and decided to tell everyone about it. Okay, in part 1, we'll look at the attractiveness... I'm interested in the highlights of Japan, if we go back 10 years ago, starting from around 2016. That's what I remember. At that time, Japan was pursuing an interest rate policy. A negative interest rate means that if someone deposits...
If you keep the money with Japan, you will have to pay a fee. Regarding financial institutions or the central bank. It's an economic stimulus policy. Firstly, he doesn't want anyone to lead him. The money is deposited in the bank, so that's the incentive. The main concern is that most people are taking their money out of the bank.
This is a picture of something used for various purposes. Japan, approximately 10 years ago or so. It arrived in 2024, and it was the first time that... Japan announces the end of its negative interest rate policy. Okay, and the most recent interest rate hike was in 2025. That was the first time in almost 10 years that Japan announced an interest rate increase.
It stands at around 1.25%, which is considered very low for a developed country. And what are the advantages of countries with high interest rates? Low means that the cost of borrowing money is low. The business sector has high financial costs. Interest rates are low for businesses. Yes, that would be one of the financial costs.
It affects net profit, meaning that if during... Where interest rates are low, businesses tend to be more likely to profit. Which would result in more money or profit. It must be said that, actually, before this, the country... Japan is perceived as a country with a high rate of... Growth has slowed down because...
An aging society, and most people aren't like that. Slow spending leads to deflation. When we talk about the overall picture of the Japanese market, it means... I must say it is similar to Thailand in... In the past, we relied heavily on exports. Most businesses are of this type... It's the old businesses that are part of the economy, such as energy, mining, and utilities.
Essentially, it's the key strengths that made Volleyball Buffet decide to invest. In Japanese stocks during the COVID-19 period... In the past, during the crisis, the companies that Buffett invested in were mainly five companies: Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Corporation, and Marubin. These five businesses were...
Businesses that are similar to retail stock trading. Energy stocks, simply put, are... Japan's infrastructure group. If we observe these five companies carefully... Yes, it would be consistent with the business you're involved in, according to the Fed. I like it; it's a business in the consumer goods sector.
Well, infrastructure like railways, for example. Yes, this refers to the withdrawal fee for the male applicant and the business itself. The food and beverage consumer goods that he invested in. The United States is similar in this respect. This shows that you still hold onto the idea that... It's clear now, so we'll still use the same technique.
The decision to invest is, firstly, a step in the process. Investing during a crisis or market correction. Basically, they felt the price was unreasonable at that time. It's reasonable; it's too cheap for the present. Okay, so regarding their ownership proportion... Starting from 2020, if we count the ownership proportion of these 5 companies during that period...
During COVID, we found that each company had a certain proportion... It 's at around 5%, and then it arrived at... As of 2026, Berkshire Hathaway has never sold any shares at all. Just once, and there's a specific investment allocation. That increase, reaching 10%, is the current status of Japanese stocks.
Yes, regarding Berkeley, the reason why Mr. Buffett decided to invest is still... I'm considering selling my shares soon, and there are two reasons for that. These two reasons will... It 's the same pattern they use in the United States. So, basically, they like free cash. For example, in point number 1, the reason is...
You all know, right, about Japan? Interest rates are low, at around 1.25%, so they borrowed money from Japan by issuing... The bonds have interest rates of around 1.2% or 2%, but they borrowed the money and then they used it... That money was invested in the shares of 5 Japanese companies that provided an overall dividend yield.
That's more than the interest he has to pay. They took out a loan, which is why they're pocketing the difference. Between interest payments and free dividend income. This one is similar to the model he likes. It's about the insurance business that receives money. Get the insurance first; it's free money, then use it.
This is an investment, and it would be of a certain nature... The same pattern continues, and the second reason is about dividend-paying stocks; I've made a video about this before. And what about the criteria and special characteristics? These are the dividend-paying stocks that Mr. Mafeet has selected, which...
Japanese stocks are similar; they have the same characteristics. A key characteristic of dividend-paying stocks is that they must have the following features: Dividends per share with growth potential. It's not just about the word "dividend" being high; we... Let's take a look at what the dividends of these five companies look like, and then we'll find out...
It follows the same pattern as dividend stocks like Coca-Cola, American Express, and Moody's, which they invest in. Let's start by looking at... Let's take a look at the dividends of each company first. Let's start with the leading one. Okay, so we go to Trading View, click on Financial, and then we're done.
We'll stay on the topic at the top. You can see that the main concepts that Warren Buffett chooses for dividend stocks are... Stocks with consistent dividend per share growth, such as... This company, as we can see, is gradually growing. The company consistently pays dividends per share. Okay, let's take a look at Marubinika's product.
Dividends are growing steadily, but there will be some... For example, in 2015, there were two periods of decline. The first was in 2015, and the second was in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Under normal circumstances, the rate would be... The relatively high growth in dividends per share. Steadily growing, this concludes Part 1: The attractiveness of the Japanese market.
This will have characteristics that lean towards value investing. Or are you referring to stocks of older, established companies? For example, utility stocks and infrastructure stocks. The fundamentals are primarily based on existing growth, not growth rates. It's a good stock, but it's one that can...
Maintaining profit levels makes it a suitable time to enter. Investing during a crisis or severe market correction. Because these stocks have relatively high revenues. Stability is key. Now, let's move on to part 2, which is about statistical data compared to the stock market. The United States, which we'll start with now.
Let's retrieve the data first, but this data needs to be retrieved... There is a slight limitation; we have to use... This is a premium plan. We're going to Scenner, click here, and then select... Download it, do you see? We need to use these steps. Low-cost is the premium plan; this will be the method.
Now, let's retrieve the data. Okay, it will be like this. I will use the following option: This page shows the total number of US stocks, 8,200 companies, and Japanese stocks, 3,800 companies. We'll look at it from two dimensions. The first dimension is... It refers to the distribution of returns, what it is.
However, another dimension is that we will look at... The relationship between profit growth and actual stock performance. So, how much of an impact does it have on the price of raw materials? If we compare these two countries, this picture will... This is a comparison between the US market on the left.
And then, on the right side, we'll look at the Japanese market. In this section, we'll examine two parts. The first part is the graph on the top... The image above and below will explain it simply: The vertical axis represents the number of companies, and the horizontal axis will... It's a matter of returns for our US market.
As you can see, that's the general distribution. Looking at the charts, most companies are investing in certain areas. It 's on the left in the zone where the Performance is negative, and on the right there's a message about a failed registration. For example, in this position, 100% of the compensation will come from the company, just a small amount.
How many companies? Maybe 10 or 20 companies. Compared to the Japanese market, we can see that... It's a beautiful bell-shaped object, that means... That means the distribution of the substitute is smooth. More importantly, the answer is in the image below. Yes, we can see that if it's the Japanese market...
Okay, this first column will be for large-cap stocks, set to performance, meaning the stock... Large-cap stocks typically have a median performance of around 22% return, then it gradually decreases, with small-cap stocks having a median performance of 15%, small-cap stocks at 6%, and extremely small-cap stocks at -9%.
But if we compare this to the US market, we will see... It was found that large-cap stocks survived, just like... In Japan, we can see that the returns of large, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks... Instead of being quite cohesive, they are the ones with problems. The hardest hit are the small-cap stocks.
We will... Small-cap US stocks have been found to be volatile. When reversed, the median risk is very high. The return is negative 20%, which is quite significant. Compared to the Japanese market, or to summarize the picture... The distribution of expensive eyeglasses is quite simple, really. The Japanese stock market seems to act naturally.
More than if we put in some money, for example. We are investing money in the Japanese stock market. Without knowledge, the chances of finding the right stock are low. The average return of stocks that are between those that are... Provides high returns to stocks that offer returns. The negative numbers are quite similar.
In the US market, if we don't have... We knew right away that after we invested money, we would find a stock of this size. While there's a chance we could experience significant losses, these two markets share one common characteristic: Large-cap stocks are also stocks that will survive. Just a quick observation: we can see that...
That means large-scale shareholders from Japan and the United States have... They have very different characters, you know. Japan has a character that is unique to you. The value or basic infrastructure at the time. US tech stocks are particularly sensitive. That's true regarding the announcement of earnings results.
Then I asked myself, "Hey, is that really true?" US stocks are speculative, right? Well, that's to be expected. Hoping for high growth means that... There may be fluctuations or opportunities for prices to... This sharp drop is more pronounced than that of a value stock. Is it Japan? So if so... That means we should expect a return.
US stocks outnumbered Japanese stocks, but... This number indicates the size of both of these markets in the stock market. The larger size has a median value of equal liver replacement results while The character of Japanese stocks seems to have... Lower risk. Now, in the second dimension, let's look at profit growth and how it affects...
What impact does this have on the stock price? We'll be using earnings per share growth, comparing the past 12 months' performance to the past year's performance. The left side will show the market performance. To the right will be the US market, and we'll look at the Japanese market from two angles: the point and the red line.
Let's start with the red line; this is the... It's a linear relationship, meaning that if the line... The steeply rising red line indicates earnings per share. Growth will have a significant impact on the stock's performance. They are related in a linear fashion; the stronger the relationship, the better.
A steep slope indicates strong earnings per share growth. This also affects the price, to the right we will... As you can see, the red line has a very steep slope. It's better than the US market, the reason being the right side. This means that the Japanese stock market has... Their character dictates that they must see profit before they see anything else.
We need to look at the actual profits first, and then that will be reflected in other aspects. At the stock price level, the terms are profit and profit growth. This will affect changes in stock prices. Having a more linear relationship than the market. It's the United States, but there is a US market as well.
Linear relationships that are the same. The line goes uphill, but it's less steep than the one shown in Japan. This shows that the United States actually has other factors that... Price manipulation is driven by more than just profit figures. For example, let's say we can see that it's right. At this point, the blue dot represents a group of stocks.
It 's in the micro or Nan Cap market, with earnings per share growing at around 25%, but we can see that the performance is around 170-180%. This is possible, indicating that the company is in that segment. At this point, there's an increase in prices. Other factors besides growth The share price is also at this point, and there's a diversification on both sides.
It's the same, which reflects the fact that both countries have something in common: There are other factors that affect performance beyond just earnings per share, for example. If it's a point-by-point charge that has... That's a perfect relationship, it's the whole point. Yes, it will accumulate in a straight line and slope upwards.
It won't all be distributed like this. Now, let me summarize from the second perspective on this issue. The relationship between profit growth and stock price performance in these two countries is indeed real. Yes, but the Japanese stock market will have... The relationship is even more relevant for Japanese companies.
Profits have to genuinely grow; EPS Gold must be one of the factors influencing the market. You'll only really appreciate the price when you see it in person. While in the US market, earnings per share also affect performance, there are other factors. Other factors affecting price or performance are beyond just earnings per share, and that includes the technology aspect.
It's the word "US" that the market tends to value. With the terms "growth" or "AI" being more prevalent in the US market than in Japan, the US market is therefore... Nowadays, the increase in price or performance may not necessarily be due to profit. It will come solely from expectations. Or there are other factors as well; this is the issue.
The content of the day differs between the two countries. That's all for today. If anyone had any questions... If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. Okay, so thank you for following and watching today. Okay, good day!
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