저자: DavidAdams · 외국인
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결론: 마이크론은 이번 주 급락이 과도한 반응이며 장기 성장 전망은 긍정적이라는 주장. D램이 매출의 66%를 차지하며, 최근 분기 D램 평균판매가격(ASP)이 전년 대비 57% 상승해 낸드 대비 훨씬 강한 흐름이라고 설명. 이번 주 기술주 전반 하락 속에서 마이크론은 약 15% 하락했고, 낸드 가격 하락 우려와 애널리스트들의 가격 하락 전망이 주된 원인으로 지목됨. 재무적으로는 자기자본이익률과 순이익률이 업계 최상위권이며, 부채가 수년 만에 처음으로 감소 추세로 전환. 2018 회계연도 가이던스는 잉여현금흐름으로 부채 조기 상환(총부채 최대 30% 축소) 및 주당순이익 18~23% 성장 가능성 제시. 최근 4개 분기 모두 애널리스트 컨센서스 이상의 실적을 달성했으나, 4명 애널리스트 컨센서스는 향후 이익 감소를 예상. 주가는 약 39.90달러 부근이 강한 지지선이라고 언급. 밸류에이션은 PER 9.23으로 섹터 평균(약 22.3) 대비 낮은 수준. 리스크: 사업 상당 부분이 애플과의 관계에 의존하며, 애플은 공급사에 대한 충성도가 낮다는 점을 경고 신호로 제시. 지속 성장을 위해서는 기술 혁신으로 섹터를 계속 앞서야 하며, 고객사와의 관계를 유지하면서도 가격 경쟁력을 잃지 않아야 한다고 결론.
다듬은 글
hello Internet welcome to Vicarious Ventures my name is Dave Adams today we are talking Micron and the drop that they experienced this week before we get started subscribe like comment below I would absolutely appreciate it so to steal the slide that I used from a couple months ago um as just a quick reminder Micron is a memory producing company instead of going over what it is that they do and how it splits out I'd encourage you to watch my first video from September um but fun fact of the day the world produces 16.3 zettabytes of data annually and this in and of itself is supposed to grow tenfold by 2025 if not more you could see there one zetabyte is a trillion gigabytes so if you're in the business of producing the memory that helps this go um there's really positive outlooks for the future in terms of what those market shares are going to look like to give you just a quick glance at exactly what it's looked like in the past we can see 2013 through now a 21% annual growth rate in IP traffic and then from device split out we can see smartphones TVs PCS making up a massive part of this um and smartphones specifically are the market that is going to touch Micron the most and I would argue specifically as one of the largest growing and it's the highest status symbol of any of these here so a nice awesome smartphone means more than maybe a nice awesome TV to most people so I've briefly talked about some positive stuff why on Earth did the entire Tech sector drop this week if there's such green grass on the horizon how did Micron drop 5% today and 15% this week looking across the sector that 15 a half% drop that Micron had was actually one of the worst across the sector um and a big part of this is the fact that nand memory and the speculative prices for the future um a lot of analysts had the prices looking down and so any memory producers got crushed this week um but we're going to talk about some reasons why I think that's overreaction at a minimum these slides come from the current data off of micron's in investor relations page um and again like we talked about in the previous video dram is now up to 66% of the revenue of this company so having a company drop pretty massively off of the price of a smaller part of its business is is why I say this is an overreaction and on top of that just to compound the fact that dam is such a big part of their business if we look at the bottom right we can see that since my last presentation dram is actually raised in ASP another 8% putting it year-over-year at a 57% average sale price increase that compared to just 2% for the Nan memory so these positive trajectories across the board as well as the guidance given looking forward tells me that this company has way more positive outlooks than this week's reactions there's a couple highlights pointing out what I just referenced um 66% of the business is dam is huge so a quick overview of profitability growth financial strength um the things to call out here bottom left corner they absolutely great ability to return money on their invested Capital coupled with the fact that they are crushing the industry in terms of net margins this is why this company is meant to grow in my eyes um and in fact another positive thing that we can talk about is the fact that the debt actually showed a downward Trend a Divergence for the first time in years so not only did we have positive growth positive stock growth great analytics coming in from the sales side but then we were able to pay off debt um so absolutely great some prior orities and Promises given as guidance for next year the company had a couple bullet points for fiscal year 2018 and those were continue to deploy free cash flow towards opportunistic retirement of debt they're trying to pay their debt off early the opportunity for them to reach an 8 to9 million gross debt is them saying that they're looking to shrink this total debt by as much as 30% next year um which continues the trajectory we just referenced and then to round it out the potential for 18 to 23 C earnings per share growth from year-over-year debt reduction activities so this is all excellent and then looking on the right side towards their non-gaap guidance diluted earnings per share for quarter one this is between 209 and 223 and so just looking at this against the share price currently I really think that this company has a really strong future ahead of it for 2018 if I were to talk about that future guidance and then reference the past real quick here are the last four quarters reported and you can see that Micron has met or beat the consensus earnings from analysts so not only are they succeeding but they're beating expectations which is twofold that that means that you're succeeding but it also means that you're not over promising people like me who are putting their money behind you and using that history to then look forward um we can see that the consensus across four analysts at least are that the earnings are going to drop and to remind you again that Tech selloff this week a decent part of it was the idea that memory prices are inflated and that the demand which we talked about was was over the supply levels this year is going to level out and cause some more competition and price drops I mean that may be true but it might not be true for the type of memories that micron sales again dram being 66% of their business this was a reference to Nan so um this is why I'm pointing towards potentially this being an overreaction or maybe an incorrect reaction from a future perspective there's a lot of upward Mobility here I don't know where the basement is but I know that there's a strong support right around the numbers that we're at on the 3990 price point we currently sit at so final thoughts Micron currently has an excellent PE ratio of just 9.23 perspective wise this is lower than 89% of the sector which averages at roughly 22.3 the early explosion this year in stock prices largely thanks to the supply shortage we just referenced of dram this allowed the company to achieve quarterly average sales price growth of 14% And 8% respectively in the last two reports and a year-over-year average sales price growth of 57% which is ridiculous their business as we talked about in last video is heavily predicated on the relationship they've built with apple this company is rather notorious for their lack of loyalty Apple that is so this could be a red flag or at least a caution sign for you and round it out continued success for this company requires continually outpacing the sector Innovations and this while maintaining the critical relationships of their purchasers currently so without pricing themselves out of the market how do they continue to stay ahead of the game thank you so much for taking the time to watch this video please subscribe like comment before you head out I would absolutely appreciate it have a great day
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